A large area of stratiform rain with embedded thunderstorms developed across much of north Texas on October 8th. One storm caused damage to a house roof and a barn roof in Valley Mills.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A large area of stratiform rain with embedded thunderstorms developed across much of north Texas on October 8th. One storm caused damage to a house roof and a barn roof in Valley Mills. A tree was also uprooted in this location.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 8, 3:07 PM CST, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 407 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2011 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU AZ AND TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. THESE SHORTWAVES WERE MOVING ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THAT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THRU ABILENE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE AND APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 IN NORTH TX. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN UNDER AN INCH SO FAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PICKING UP A MUCH NEEDED HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR SO ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ACCORDING TO AREA VAD WIND PROFILES THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS SOMEWHAT BACKED ACROSS NORTH TX WITH H925 TO H850 WINDS AT AROUND 30 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. BACKED LOWER TROPOSPHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE CONSOLIDATED COLD POOL THIS EVENING WITH STEEPENED LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACES AND WEAK STORM SCALE TO MESOSCALE FRONTOGENESIS ACTING AS THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS. SEE NO REASON FOR THESE PROCESSES TO SHUT OFF WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THEREFORE EXPECT THE LINE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE MARCHING EAST THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS. WENT AHEAD WITH 70 TO 90 PERCENT POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS LINE HOLDING TOGETHER AND MOVING EAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH SEVERAL LARGE CROWD EVENTS PLANNED IN THE METROPLEX TONIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY START AFTER 8 PM AND CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. RESIDENTS OF NORTH TX WITH PLANS TO HEAD OUT TO EVENTS THIS EVENING SHOULD PLAN TO DEAL WITH SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...HOWEVER THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS A LACK OF STRONG/HIGH INSTABILITY. DESPITE BROKEN SKY COVER MUCH OF NORTH TX EAST OF THE CURRENT LINE OF CONVECTION HAS WARMED UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE PRIMARY REASON FOR A LACK OF HIGHER CAPE VALUES IS MEAGER MID/UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED ONLY A 16 TO 18 DEG C TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN THE H700 TO H500 LEVELS AND VISUAL INSPECTION OF AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT NO SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED STEEP TEMPERATURE DECLINES EXIST OUTSIDE OF THIS LAYER. THEREFORE THINK THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR TORNADOES WILL REMAIN SMALL. OUT OF THESE POSSIBLE THREATS...DAMAGING WINDS IS THE MOST LIKELY AS A WET MICROBURST IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT. HOWEVER WITH HIGH RH VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE THERE IS NOT A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THETA E WITH HEIGHT THAT WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL TONIGHT. MERIDIONAL AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ABOVE THE H850 LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A NORTHERLY STORM MOTION FAVORING TRAINING STORMS THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS A RESULT. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING UPDATE DISCUSSION...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS AREA CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE PLENTY OF CAPACITY TO CHANNEL RUNOFF WHERE IT IS SUPPOSED TO GO. THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS THAT WOULD WARRANT A WATCH AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR REGIONAL RADARS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ISSUE FLOOD ADVISORIES OR ANY FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DEPENDING ON THE SEVERITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU AZ AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION WILL BEGIN SPREADING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT THRU WEST TX AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE TSTM ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP BACK TO THE WEST OF NORTH TX BY SUNDAY MORNING HOLDING TSTM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH TX WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. THE SHORTWAVE IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO KICK OUT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MOVE FURTHER EAST THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS IN MIND THINK THAT THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AXIS WILL SET UP FURTHER EAST AND ACTUALLY HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SETTING UP JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS PANS OUT THIS WOULD SPREAD ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL OVER AT LEAST HALF OF THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE EXPECTED EASTERLY SHIFT OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AXIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 70 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS FROM THE METROPLEX AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY SENDING A WEAK PACIFIC TYPE COLD FRONT THRU NORTH TX IN ITS WAKE. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS HEAVY AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEKEND. EXTENDED...ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TX AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE CONUS. THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WEAK FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD SHOWING SOME PERSISTENT H850 TO H700 WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER NORTH TX TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING AND ENHANCED INSTABILITY PROMPTED THE INCLUSION OF A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND TUESDAYS TROUGH...DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS A RESULT OF THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH ITS EVOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH DRIER AIR AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST. CAVANAUGH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 70 82 67 81 65 / 70 70 70 40 10 WACO, TX 71 86 66 84 61 / 70 70 70 40 10 PARIS, TX 68 84 64 80 64 / 10 30 40 30 10 DENTON, TX 71 81 62 81 59 / 70 80 80 40 10 MCKINNEY, TX 71 83 63 82 61 / 30 60 70 40 10 DALLAS, TX 71 83 69 81 66 / 40 70 70 40 10 TERRELL, TX 70 86 66 87 64 / 30 50 60 40 10 CORSICANA, TX 71 86 66 85 66 / 30 50 60 40 10 TEMPLE, TX 71 83 65 84 63 / 70 70 60 40 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 69 78 63 81 63 / 80 90 80 40 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 413 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2011 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091100- MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN- HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS- ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL- JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO- FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE- LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON- 413 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A PARIS TO HEARNE LINE. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. AS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT OTHERWISE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS GENERALLY LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... VERY LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WEST OF A GAINESVILLE TO KILLEEN LINE.
The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 104 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:52 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorms winds damaged the roof of a house and the roof of a barn. A tree was also uprooted.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 349934.