October 2011 continued the string of area wide below average rainfall, ensuring no change to the persistent Extreme to Exceptional Drought across the Rio Grande Valley/Deep South Texas region. Rain on the 1st of the month dropped up to 2 inches or more in Starr and Jim Hogg County; boundaries acting on hot, humid air on the 9th produced the most widespread rains of the month, stretching from…
Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
October 2011 continued the string of area wide below average rainfall, ensuring no change to the persistent Extreme to Exceptional Drought across the Rio Grande Valley/Deep South Texas region. Rain on the 1st of the month dropped up to 2 inches or more in Starr and Jim Hogg County; boundaries acting on hot, humid air on the 9th produced the most widespread rains of the month, stretching from Zapata and Brooks County, then enhanced by the Gulf Coast sea breeze from Kenedy south to Cameron County, where pockets of 2 to more than 3 inches fell. Areas of western Hidalgo and eastern Starr County, facing severe rainfall deficits where less than 5 inches of rain fell in water year 2011 (October 2010 to September 2011) missed the rain.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 11:47 PM CST, 13 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1247 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2011 .DISCUSSION...SEE THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MOVES SOUTHWARD SAT AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2011/ UPDATE...SEE THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. AVIATION...THE SURFACE FRONT IS LIKELY OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BRO CWA RESULTING IN A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OVER THE LOWER RGV AIRPORTS. ISOLD CONV IS FIRING TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDES INLAND OVER MEXICO AND OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEX. AT THIS TIME CAPE VALUES OVER THE LOWER RGV ARE TOO LOW FOR ANY MORE CONV DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW WITH COMBINE WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT MAY HELP FIRE OFF SOME ISOLD TO SCT CONV TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION SOME PROB30 GROUPS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW FOR THE RGV TAFS. ELEVATED SOIL MOISTURE VALUES FROM THE RECENT RAINS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT TO ALLOW SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND LOW SC DECKS TO FORM. WILL MENTION THIS AS A TEMPO GROUP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. EXPECT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2011/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING ACROSS THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN ANALYZED ALONG A CORPUS CHRISTI TO TO COTULLA LINE AT 15Z. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TODAY. 18Z SURFACE OBS SHOWING DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXING TO THE SURFACE WHICH MIGHT PUT A DAMPER ON ANY CONVECTION THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION IS FIRING OFF ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SE OF MATAMOROS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT CAMERON COUNTY. THE MAIN FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FORWARD MOMENTUM IS LOST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TURNING WINDS MORE EAST THEN NORTH. THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM POOLS MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE CONSISTENT ON SHOWING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT OF THE OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS. DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT ENDING THE CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY FALL TO SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY BELOW NORMALS IF MORNING CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME SITE SINCE IT HAS BEEN EXTREMELY HOT THIS YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS DRIER INFILTRATES THE REGION LOWERING DEW POINTS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE SCENE. DEW POINTS WILL LOWER INTO THE 60S EAST THROUGH MID WEEK...AND DOWN INTO THE 50S INLAND. NONETHELESS...THE GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILE SHOWS PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SUGGESTING LOW CLOUDS...BUT THE PROFILE IS MAINLY DRY ALOFT. THE MOIST LAYER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AROUND 900 MB. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS DOMINATING LOCAL WEATHER...WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. NOT UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS SET UP LATER IN THE WEEK WILL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CREEP UP ONCE AGAIN. MID WEEK WILL BE ABOUT THE TIME OF A PATTERN SHIFT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE SHIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOISTURE WILL FLOW FROM THE GULF NORTH INTO THE PLAINS AND STORM SYSTEMS IN THE PLAINS WILL BE GUIDED NORTH AND EAST. MARINE... TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS TO BACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AS THE FRONT PASSES LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WINDS TO REMAIN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO MODERATE SPEEDS BUT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT LOSING SOME OF ITS STRENGTH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVE MORE EAST THEN SOUTH. SEAS ALSO SHOULD REMAIN AT MARGINAL CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST WHILE MODERATE SEAS WILL DECREASE A FOOT OR TWO THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHWEST GULF. AN OCCASIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER ARISING FROM UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE 61/64
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1219 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2011 TXZ248>257-011015- ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY- INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON- 1219 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-011015- LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO- LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX- LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX- COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 1219 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE. .DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. CASTILLO
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
10 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Exceptional (D4) drought conditions continued across the north and northwestern one third of Zapata County into the first week of October, with Extreme (D3) conditions dominating the remainder of the county.
Severe (D3) Drought conditions prevailed across all but the extreme southeast and extreme north sections of Jim Hogg County, where Exceptional (D4) conditions prevailed, through October. Locally heavy rainfall across the south central and southwest portion of the county on the 1st assured that worsening conditions would hold off through the month.
Extreme (D3) to Exceptional (D4) Drought conditions dominated the county through October. The month began with all but the northwest sliver of the county in Exceptional Drought; locally heavy rains up to 2 inches or more fell generally along a Roma to Rio Grande City line, extending northward into southern Jim Hogg County during the late afternoon of October 1st. These rains would slightly improve conditions to Extreme across the western half of the county, which would continue through month's end.
Exceptional (D4) Drought conditions dominated all but a small sliver of northwestern Brooks County through October, which improved slightly to Extreme (D3) by October 4th after a few thunderstorms dropped slightly hopeful rains.
Exceptional (D4) Drought conditions dominated Hidalgo County with the sole exception of communities along the Rio Grande from Penitas to the Cameron County line, where Exceptional (D4) conditions improved slightly to Extreme (D3, Penitas to Pharr/McAllen) on the 11th. Extreme conditions prevailed around Weslaco/Donna, with Severe (D2) holding on in Mercedes, where enough rain fell to temporarily keep conditions from worsening.
The extended drought in one of the Valley's agricultural heartlands may have impacted the coming autumn citrus harvest. Details and damage estimates may be provided in the December report.
Exceptional (D4) drought conditions covered nearly all of Kenedy County through October. A brief period of improvement to Extreme (D3) spread into the county from Armstrong to the Willacy border, after 2 to 3 inches of rain fell on October 9th. The area of Extreme Drought would continue through the end of the month.
Extreme (D3) to Exceptional (D4) Drought conditions prevailed across inland Willacy County through October. Extreme conditions (slight improvement) appeared across the western half of the county by October 4th, after some welcome rainfall on the 1st; measured/estimated rainfall between 1 and 2 inches on the 9th maintained the slightly improved area through the remainder of the month. Locations east of State Highway 77 and south of State Highway 186 saw less rain, and continued at Exceptional levels.
Severe (D2) to Exceptional (D4) Drought conditions prevailed across inland Cameron County through the month of October. Rain events on October 1st and 9th helped to reshape the areas through the month. In general, Exceptional conditions prevailed east of State Highway 77; Extreme (D3) prevailed in a thin band along and just west of the highway, including Brownsville and Harlingen, and western Cameron County (Santa Rosa-La Feria) remained in Severe conditions.
Exceptional (D4) Drought conditions persisted across coastal Willacy County through October. A pocket of heavy rainfall a little more than an inch was far shy of the monthly average (around 4 inches), except near Port Mansfield, and did little to improve the long term dryness.
Exceptional (D4) Drought conditions persisted across all of Coastal Cameron County through October. Estimated rainfall of 1 to 2 inches on October 9th from Arroyo City to Laguna Atascosa was not enough to reduce the long term drought; monthly totals were still less than one half of average.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 339213, 339214, 339215, 339216, 339217, 339218, 339219, 339220, 339221, 339222.