Texas, 2011

Dense Fog in Texas, December 13, 2011

December 13, 2011 · NWS LUB · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Fog developed during the afternoon hours across the region and became dense across Hale County. A woman traveling northbound on Interstate 27 in Hale County crossed the median and was struck by a vehicle traveling southbound.

Where it happened

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The toll

Deaths
1
Injuries
1
Property damage
$15,000
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.

Fog developed during the afternoon hours across the region and became dense across Hale County. A woman traveling northbound on Interstate 27 in Hale County crossed the median and was struck by a vehicle traveling southbound. The woman in the northbound vehicle was killed while the driver of the other vehicle was injured.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 13, 11:42 AM CST, 2 hours 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 13, 11:42 AM CST, 2 hours 3 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2011

.AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE FOR BOTH KLBB AND KCDS TERMINAL SITES.
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MINOR IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
-SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN AT LIFR THROUGH MOST
OF THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD...THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...BUT WITH STRONG WARM MOIST ADVECTION...UNLIKELY TO SEE
MARKED IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS DESPITE INCREASING WINDS. COULD
SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAF. CERTAINLY SOME INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS LOOK LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN THE 05Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME...MORE
LIKELY AT KCDS. SHOULD SEE RAPID IMPROVEMENT...AND WINDS RAMPING
UP FROM THE SW...WITH PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 15Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2011/

SHORT TERM...
FOG...DRIZZLE...VERY LIGHT RAIN IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED ABOVE A QUARTER MILE LOCALLY ON
THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST DENSE FOG CAN NOT
YET BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING.

MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
REGIME WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS
A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET SPREADS NORTH FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN. INITIAL
EVIDENCE OF THIS MAY BE SEEN NOW WITH INCREASING LIGHT RADAR ECHOES
OVER THE BASIN. WEAK FORCING/ASCENT WITHIN THIS REGIME IS PROGGED TO
PEAK OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THRU
15Z THEN TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE. PROFILES SUGGEST THAT DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS TODAY.
HAVE INCREASED GRIDDED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY /60-70 PERCENT/
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL MOS
GUIDANCE AND SREF WHICH SHOWS 70-75 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR
GREATER THAN 0.01 INCH NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK BETWEEN 15-18Z.

ASCENT IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN/TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
290-300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE BY AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN
REPRIEVE FROM DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...HELPING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY/S DAYTIME
HIGHS. HOWEVER DEEP FORCING WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
SOUTHWESTERN MID/UPPER AIR LOW/TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO EJECT AND
THE NOSE OF A 120 KT UPPER AIR JET APPROACHES. RELATIVELY MORE
ROBUST CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH HIGHER AND MORE MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION RATES/ SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
DURING THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. PROGGED LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A MENTION OF THUNDER...ESPECIALLY AS THIS DEEPER FORCING OVERSPREADS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND WILL FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA
BY 12Z. THUS HIGHEST POPS /70-75 PERCENT/ FOR THE EVENT WILL BE
DEPICTED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE 06-12Z.

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FIRST BATCH OF ENERGY SHOULD SCOOT WELL NORTH OF US WITH
TRAILING TROUGH DELAYING CROSSING UNTIL THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT
UPPER LOW DIVES ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND MATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN BAJA INTO SATURDAY. IT IS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW THAT
WILL PROVIDE FOR THE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS EJECTS THE LOW INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS MONDAY
MORNING WHICH WOULD CREATE MORE OF A WIND EVENT WHEREAS THE ECM IS
SLOWER AND DRAGS THE LOW ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A RAIN AND/OR SNOW EVENT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A COMPLEX
SCENARIO WITH MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY INTERACTING
WITH EACH OTHER. GIVEN THE TENDENCY THIS COOL SEASON FOR A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK...WILL EDGE THE FORECAST MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE SLOWER ECM.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY GET A FAIR BIT
BREEZY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH WINDS UP IN THE 20-25 MPH
RANGE.   FORTUNATELY...GIVEN THE PROTRACTED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND
COOL CONDITIONS...MIN RH VALUES WOULD REMAIN ABOVE 30 PCT AREAWIDE
AND POSE LITTLE RISK FOR GRASSLAND WILDFIRES.  A COLD FRONT IS DUE
IN THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.  RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE WEST INTO
FRIDAY BUT BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS SWING A BIT MORE WESTERLY WITH
TIME.

LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BECOME MORE TRICKY AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
WITH THE SELECTION OF A WETTER COOLER SOLUTION FOR THIS FCST.  THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS NEBULOUS BUT GIVEN WE ARE TALKING DAY 6-7
HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.  IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
BEST LIFT COMES ACROSS ON MONDAY AND HAVE UNDERCUT HI TEMP GUIDANCE
GIVEN PROSPECTS FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION.  THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE A
BIT OUT OF PHASE AT THIS POINT BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE
THE FRONT EASE IN 12-24 HOURS SOONER THAN DEPICTED YIELDING A MUCH
MORE WHITE SOLUTION.  STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  41  50  26  47 /  60  70  10   0   0
TULIA         47  43  53  29  48 /  70  60  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     48  46  55  30  49 /  70  60  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     49  45  56  30  52 /  50  50  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  47  57  30  51 /  60  50  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   55  48  57  31  52 /  40  50  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  48  58  31  53 /  40  50  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  49  63  34  52 /  70  70  30   0   0
SPUR          49  49  60  34  54 /  60  50  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     54  53  65  37  55 /  50  50  30   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

06/93/06
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 13, 12:26 PM CST, 1 hour 19 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2011

TXZ021>044-141830-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1226 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NON PRECIPITATION

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK
AREA TODAY AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN 100 FEET AT TIMES...PRIMARILY ON THE CAPROCK.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND
ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER A LARGE AREA.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 dense fog. Local standard time, as filed.

Dense Fog, Hale

When
December 13, 1:45 PM CST to 5:00 PM CST
Where
Hale forecast zone
Deaths
0 direct, 1 indirect
Injuries
0 direct, 1 indirect
Property damage
$15,000
Reported by
Department of Highways
Coordinates
34.071, -101.827 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Dense Fog, Hale2011-12-1369FemaleVehicle/Towed TrailerIndirect

What these are

Dense Fog
Fog reducing visibility to a quarter mile or less, filed where it caused accidents or disruption.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, December 2011

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 351619.