Drought in Texas, April 19 to 30, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1229 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SFC WINDS RUNNING 15 TO 20KTS WHILE LLV JET RUNNING
50KTS AT 2KFT. WILL BE ADDING LLVL SHEAR NOTATION TO TAFS FOR THE
NIGHT. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER VERY STRONG CAP AT 3KFT BRINGING
CIGS DOWN TO NEAR 1KFT AND SHOULD STAY OVERCAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
GRADUAL THINNING OF CIGS EXPECTED AT SUNUP TOMORROW. LLVL JET WILL
MIX TO SFC...BRINGING WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25KTS...WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 35KTS. LOW CIGS RETURN AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON APR 18 2011/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE MODERATE AND GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE AT
THOSE LEVELS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BECOMING MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MODERATE AND GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AGAIN
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...STEADY STATE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A WARM
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN GULF TO KEEP THE JET STREAM WELL NORTH OF
OUR CWA. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THIS STEADY WEST TO EAST FLOW WILL
INTERMITTENTLY INCREASE THE WINDS TO WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE
NORMAL AFTERNOON BREEZES. ONE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AND PASSES EAST FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT ONE ON TAP
FOR SUNDAY. SHALLOW MOISTURE TO KEEP THE AREA HUMID WITH EXCEPTION
TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WHERE DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE LOWERING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TYPICAL FOR MID APRIL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT GULF FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE CLOSE TO OUR VICINITY AND YES THE SOUTH WINDS
KEEPING OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS ELEVATED. ALSO THE EVER INCREASING
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WHICH ARE NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL
MAINTAIN BALMY EVENINGS. ONE ITEM TO WATCH FOR IN THE COMING DAYS
AREA THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE DRY LINE THAT WILL LIE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TEXAS EXTENDING INTO MEXICAN PLATEAU. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ENHANCED WITH TIME ESPECIALLY
WHEN ONE OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACHES THE AREA. IF THE STRONG
CAP OVER THE REGION DOES NOT BREAK THEN THESE STORMS DO NOT HAVE
A CHANCE TO WORK THERE WAY OVER THE RIVER...BUT IF A DISTURBANCE
DOES TREND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THEN THERE MIGHT BE A CHANCE FOR
A STORM OR TWO. WE ARE GETTING CLOSE TO MAY AND THIS TREND STARTS
TO BECOME MORE COMMON ESPECIALLY WITH THE INTENSE SURFACE
HEATING ADDING TO LARGE LAPSE RATES AND THE DEEPENING GULF
MOISTURE.

MARINE...AT NOON BUOY 20 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 16 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 3.9 FEET WITH A 6 SECOND PERIOD. THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY AND MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED ON TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEAR SHORE GULF OF MEXICO
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
WINDS WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE ON TUESDAY FROM 10
AM THROUGH 7 PM DUE TO THE INCREASING WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO PRODUCE PERIODIC SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE INCREASING DURATION OF THE STRONGER SOUTH WINDS WILL
TREND TO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED AND THE ADVISORIES COULD EXTEND
LONGER.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
428 PM CDT MON APR 18 2011

TXZ248>257-191100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
428 PM CDT MON APR 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY AT THE LOCAL
BEACHES THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-191100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
428 PM CDT MON APR 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF
PADRE ISLAND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
FROM 10 AM CDT TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.