Damaging Winds in South Carolina, July 4 to 5, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
448 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MID WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE MTNS...
WHILE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER MTN CONVECTION IS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER HAS BEEN VERY SPORADIC THUS FAR...THE DEVELOPING MULTICELL
CLUSTER CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL AND INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN THE NC PIEDMONT. OTHER CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WERE
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE UPSTATE. POPS
WILL BE RAMPED DOWNWARD QUITE A BIT OVER THE MTNS...BUT WILL BE
INCREASED TO LIKELY FOR THE I-77 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
WILL ALSO DO MY BEST TO CAPTURE COOLING TEMP TRENDS WITHIN THE COLD
POOL(S).

TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL SWING EAST ACROSS MIDDLE TN/KY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP. IN FACT...THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...STORM MOTIONS WILL BE A LITTLE QUICKER GIVEN STRONG WINDS
WITHIN THE MID STORM LAYER. GIVEN GREATER STORM MOTIONS I WILL FAVOR
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA. SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS MAY RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON/S VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT CONVECTION WILL FAVOR
THE UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE FA WILL BE UNDER A TROF
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY. THE MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A CHANNELED
VORT MAX WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE (PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES) WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH HIGH CHANCE ELSEWHERE. CERTAINLY EXPECT
THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS BUT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE TEMPERED A BIT BY SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEER
LAYER FLOW. H5 WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 25 KTS WILL KEEP 1000-500 MB
FLOW IN THE 15 KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD KEEP STORMS MOVING ALONG
ENOUGH. THE GREATER ISSUE COULD COME MORE IN THE FORM OF TRAINING
CELLS. ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 4
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

FOR THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WELL DEFINED IMPULSE
MOVING OVER THE AREA IN THE H5 FLOW...EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. I HAVE STAYED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AS I
DON/T FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS YET. SOUNDINGS
LOOK SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY THOUGH WITH WEAKER FLOW. AGAIN PWATS WILL
APPROACH 2 INCHES SO SOME DEGREE OF A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WILL EXIST. TEMPS WILL BE PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. OVERALL THE THINKING IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROF LINGERING INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. THE MODELS DIFFER A
BIT REGARDING THE RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD BACK OVER THE EAST WITH
THE EC HANGING ONTO THE TROF THE LONGEST. A SEMI STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO STRONG LEVEL OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE NUMEROUS THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE BY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 7
FORECAST IS STILL PRETTY LOW AT THIS POINT. FURTHERMORE...1000-500
MB FLOW WILL BE VERY WEAK EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO THE THREAT
OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A PRIMARY CONCERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY LIMITING MAX HEATING JUST A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CERTAINLY
INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. TAFS WILL
CONTAIN A CB IN THE SKY FIELD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. I WILL INCLUDE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TEMPOS AT
KAVL/KHKY/KCLT FOR TSRA. CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE PRIME AREAS FOR FOG TONIGHT. I WILL FORECAST AT
LEAST MVFR FOG DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS FOR THE TSRA TEMPO SITES.
CONVECTION POTENTIAL APPEARS JUST AS HIGH TOMORROW...BUT NOT BEFORE
18Z.

OUTLOOK...A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK AS ONE
FRONT DISSIPATES IN THE VICINITY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE WEEK. MORNING MVFR FOG IS LIKELY...AT LEAST IN
THE MTN VALLEYS...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTN/EVENING TSTMS EACH
DAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1253 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ071-072-082-SCZ001>014-019-051700-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1253 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN AFFECTED AREAS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60
MPH OR GREATER. STAY INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AS YOU CARRY OUT YOUR HOLIDAY PLANS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN AS MORE AREAS RECEIVE HEAVY
RAIN DURING THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>070-501>510-051700-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
1253 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN AS MORE AREAS RECEIVE HEAVY
RAIN DURING THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

SCZ006-012-042000-
GREATER GREENVILLE-LAURENS-
334 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN LAURENS COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 333 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF FORK SHOALS...OR 14 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SIMPSONVILLE...
  FOUNTAIN INN...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3474 8241 3479 8216 3477 8213 3475 8211
      3474 8208 3471 8206 3471 8207 3468 8203
      3459 8201 3456 8237

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

NCZ035-056-042030-
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-
354 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER AND NORTHERN CATAWBA
COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 350 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BETHLEHEM...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF HICKORY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ELLENDALE...
  TAYLORSVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3600 8117 3583 8106 3579 8110 3573 8130
      3580 8134 3592 8134

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
358 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

NCZ508-510-SCZ007-008-042030-
CHEROKEE-EASTERN POLK-GREATER RUTHERFORD-SPARTANBURG-
358 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SPARTANBURG...
NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE...SOUTHEASTERN POLK AND SOUTHERN RUTHERFORD
COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 354 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF FINGERVILLE...OR 11 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CHESNEE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3530 8181 3507 8177 3505 8213 3523 8216

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
435 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             SPARTANBURG             34.94N 81.93W
07/04/2011  E0.50 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

&&

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
445 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             COWPENS                 35.02N 81.80W
07/04/2011  E1.00 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

&&

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
448 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E HICKORY             35.74N 81.27W
07/04/2011                   CATAWBA            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN ON POWERLINES AT 3031 HIGHLAND AVENUE.

&&

BSH