A few severe thunderstorms developed during the afternoon through evening hours on Monday, July 4th across Middle Tennessee. This resulted in thunderstorm wind damage, large hail, and flash flooding reports across four counties in the midstate.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
A few severe thunderstorms developed during the afternoon through evening hours on Monday, July 4th across Middle Tennessee. This resulted in thunderstorm wind damage, large hail, and flash flooding reports across four counties in the midstate.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 11:37 AM CST, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1237 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011 .UPDATE...FOR 04/18Z AVIATION FORECAST && .AVIATION... BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING TENNESSEE RIVER AT EARLY AFTERNOON HAVING HARD TIME MAINTAINING STRENGTH IN LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES AREA. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLING IN THAT AREA. BELIEVE BEST INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY BE MORE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO. AIR MASS TO OUR NORTH WAS COOLED BY EARLIER CONVECTION. BASICALLY WENT WITH GENERIC CB FOR AVIATION PURPOSES AT BOTH BNA AND CSV FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH WASHED OUT SURFACE FRONT AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH IT WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN BEST TIME FRAME FOR STORMS. BELIEVE LATEST RUC MODEL MAY HAVE RIGHT IDEA IN WEAKENING CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN KY AS IT MOVES EAST AND DEVELOPING STORMS MORE OVER SOUTH HALF OF MID STATE WHERE TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER AND INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST WITH HIGHER CAPES. BOYD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011/ MESOSCALE UPDATE... HEATING/H5 TROF EXPECTED TO DRIVE TRW THIS AFTN ACR N MID TN. NAM12 SHOWALTER TO -7. WL INCREASE POPS TO LKLY ACR THE NORTH WITH SCT STORMS SOUTH. ISO SVR POSSIBLE W/HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2011/ MESOSCALE UPDATE... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHED SE FM KY INTO N MID TN. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF CELLS WITH A FEW REPORTS OF RAINFALL NEAR ONE INCH. BOUNDARY WL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE W/SCT TSTM REST OF THE MORN IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR E OF I-65/N OF I-40. SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TSTM IN AFTN HEAT TDAY. A GOOD CHANCE OF TSTM TNGT AS H5 TROF DROPS SOUTH OVR THE AREA. RAISED POPS NORTH TO 50 PERCENT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2011/ UPDATE... WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE AND WITH POTENTIAL MOVING EWD...HAVE UPGRADED TO CHANCE SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. WITH VSBYS IMPROVING ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THRU THE MID MORNING HRS. PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2011/ UPDATE... UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-65. PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2011/ AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION... UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE INCLUSION OF VCNTY AND PROB30 FOR THE THREAT OF -TSRA. OTW...REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT FOR CSV EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF PD. SOME REDUCED CIG VALUES WILL ALSO PREVAIL AT CSV FOR THIS MORNING. PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 323 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2011/ DISCUSSION... FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD AN GFS/EURO CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED. MAIN FORECAST QUANDARIES...CHANCES/AREAL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU TONIGHT...HIGH TEMPS. AS FOR TODAY...GFS/EURO SOLUTIONS HANDLING PLACEMENT OF WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE MID STATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. ACTUAL FRONTAL PLACEMENT WILL BE THE KEY HERE...AS CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS MOVING A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY INTO THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE KEEPING THE MAIN STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SRN OHIO VALLEY REGION. WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE... INSTABILITY...AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES KICKING IN...ALONG WITH A WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVE IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BELIEVE...AT THIS TIME...THAT BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE MID STATE. CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALSO BECOME MOCLDY ACROSS THIS PART OF THE MID STATE. NAM MIGHT BE THE ODD MODEL OUT HERE WHEN IT COMES TO BOUNDARY POSITION...HOWEVER DO LIKE ITS OVERALL TEMP SCHEME FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE MID STATE...AND WILL GENERALLY LEAN ACCORDINGLY. AS FOR TONIGHT...BOUNDARY WILL MOVE A LITTLE MORE SWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...AND WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...AND A CONTINUED GOOD INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PREVALENCE...A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE NIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST CHANCE POPS SRN PORTIONS. MOCLDY SKIES MIGHT ALSO BE IN STORE...SO FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING...MIGHT ALSO BE A GOOD IDEA TO BRING AN UMBRELLA WITH YOU TOO. WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH LOWS AROUND 70...MID 60S CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. AS FOR TUE...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED...AND A CONTINUANCE OF A MOISTURE RICH AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ALONG WITH A LEAST THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY... LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE. TAILORED POPS HIGHEST SRN AND ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION...WHERE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. EXPECT GENERALLY PTCLDY SKIES. BIG QUANDARY HERE IS WHY GFS MOS/GFS ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE IS SO WARM WITH POSSIBLE SCT SHWRS/TSTMS AND EVEN IN SOME LOCATIONS MOCDLY SKIES. WILL GO CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... A LEAN TOWARD NAM MOS VALUES...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90...MID 80S CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. AS FOR TUE NIGHT...MODELS INDICATING SOME SHIFT IN WEAK BOUNDARY TO S OF THE MID STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE EVENING HRS...BUT DRY OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL DECREASING CLOUDINESS TREND...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70...MID 60S PLATEAU. AS FOR WED...WITH SOME INDICATION OF APEX OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTING EWD...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN/AL BORDER AND ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. AGAIN...GFS MOS/GFS ENSEMBLE MOS A LITTLE TOO WARM ON HIGHS...AND IN THIS CASE...NAM MOS A LITTLE TOO COOL. WILL COMPROMISE HERE...AND GO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S...MID 60S CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...LOOK FOR THE TRANSITION TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK SFC FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED ON THU AND AGAIN LATE NEXT MON...WITH A TRANSITION FROM A NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...ALWAYS INTERESTING AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR NW AND MOVING INTO THE MID STATE AREA...TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHWRS AND TSTMS. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && 01
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1214 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011 TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-051030- STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON- HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE- SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS- WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE- CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE- GILES- 1214 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING CRITERIA. SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA... TORNADO FUNNEL CLOUD FLOODING HAIL >= 1/2 INCH WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED) STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN BOYD
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
206 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011
TNZ056-093-042000-
PERRY-WAYNE-
206 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND WAYNE COUNTIES...
AT 203 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SARDIS...OR 16 MILES NORTH OF
SAVANNAH...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. IF YOU LIVE IN WAYNE COUNTY STAY
ABREAST OF THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE.
HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.
LAT...LON 3502 8800 3530 8799 3531 8802 3539 8803
3541 8797 3543 8804 3545 8805 3549 8798
3556 8799 3546 8765 3544 8761 3542 8760
3542 8757 3518 8757 3501 8761
BOYDThe Nashville radar (KOHX), 150 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:56 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees were blown down around Waynesboro.
Downed trees and power lines were blocking U.S. Highway 64 west of Lawrenceburg.
Several large trees were split along with numerous branches and limbs strewn throughout the grounds of Henry Horton State Park.
Public estimated 60 mph winds from a thunderstorm. The tops of two trees were also broken off.
A few locations along Bluff Springs Road north of McMinnville closed due to water covering the road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, July 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 327007, 325101, 325103, 325114, 325120, 325131.