High Wind in Oklahoma, May 25, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1154 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN STORY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST...BUT IT REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST KS...THUS
THE STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH 00Z. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE AT KGUY...NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. GIVEN THE
UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THE LARGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT...DO NOT EXPECT
AWW CRITERIA TO BE MET AT KAMA...HOWEVER...WILL HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE
WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO BLDU OR
SMOKE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

JOHNSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR BEAVER COUNTY AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE REST OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. REMOVED THUNDER MENTION TONIGHT.
ALSO...INCREASED WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST.

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE WIND PRODUCTS ABOVE. IMPRESSED WITH
FORECAST 0-1 KM WINDS 30-40 KTS IN THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA. HAD
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR BEAVER COUNTY
WHERE STRONGEST CORE OF 850 AND 700 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWESTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...
35 MPH SUSTAINED...AT AMARILLO AND DALHART.

REMOVED THUNDER MENTION AS THE AIR HAS STABILIZED OVER THE AREA. KEPT
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF A DALHART TO CANADIAN
LINE WHERE A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF MID/UPPER
LOW ARE POSSIBLE.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011/

UPDATE...
PLAN ON ALLOWING RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE AT 11 PM CDT. WILL INCREASE
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL REMOVE RAIN CHANCES EXCEPT
PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST OF A BOISE CITY TO CLARENDON LINE.

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF 10 PM...THOUGH
THEY WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND POINTS NORTH.
AM CONSIDERING WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE
NORTHEAST LOCATIONS MENTION ABOVE WHERE LATEST MODELS FORECAST STRONG
SURFACE WINDS...IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. BEAVER
COUNTY MAY BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND WARNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

WILL LIKELY ALLOW RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM AS HUMIDITY
LEVELS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE AREA. A LARGE WILDFIRE CONTINUES NEAR
PALO DURO CANYON.

WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WINDS WILL REMAIN THE BIG CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT KAMA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET...SO
WILL KEEP THE AWW GOING THROUGH 02Z. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO
DIMINISH AT KDHT AND KGUY...BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE NEAR THESE TERMINALS. EVEN AFTER
SUNSET...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY AROUND 20G30KT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. AS
A RESULT CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY.

WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND AROUND
15Z...BUT AT THIS POINT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW AWW
CRITERIA.

JOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTH OF A CHANNING TO CACTUS TO HOOKER
LINE THROUGH 8 PM CDT. ALSO...EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL
AREAS OUTSIDE THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREA.

DISCUSSION...
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

BASED ON REPORTS OF A 63 MPH GUST AT DALHART AND A 59 MPH GUST AT
KENTON IN THE PAST HOUR...ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE AREAS
MENTIONED ABOVE AS APPEARS SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS ARE CAUSING VERY
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND STRONG WINDS. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTED
1000-1600 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE IN THESE AREAS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED EAST IF THE SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER.

THINK THE WIND ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW. MAY HAVE TO EXTENDED IT AN HOUR OR SO AS WINDS MAY BE A BIT
SLOW TO DIMINISH. REGARDLESS...WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A BIT CONCERNED STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF A DALHART TO AMARILLO LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
WITH STRONG MSLP RISES FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

A FEW FIRES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA INCLUDING JUST SOUTHEAST
OF HEREFORD...ONE NEAR THE DALLAM AND CIMARRON COUNTY LINE...AND
ANOTHER SOUTH OF GOODWELL OKLAHOMA. CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. CURRENT ENDING TIME OF RED FLAG WARNING AT 11 PM CDT
SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011/

DISCUSSION...
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN MAINLY ON THE DRY SIDE OF THIS STORM.  A FEW
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVED INTO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW BETWEEN
GUYMON AND LIBERAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW IS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AT MID AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS
THE REGION AND DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE REGION...SO
THEY ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH. SOME WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY COMBINE.

ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. WE MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY BEYOND WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BEHIND THIS DEPARTING STORM. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE PANHANDLES WILL
REMAIN IN DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION ACROSS OUR
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING WINDY WEATHER BACK TO THE
PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE MAY ALSO EVOLVE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...BUT WILL NOT INSERT POPS ALONG THIS FEATURE
NOW AS IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL HELP TO FIRE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...
BUT RELATIVE  HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.

&&

16/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1100 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-251100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
1100 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WHERE WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM WEDNESDAY.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS
AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
ON WEDNESDAY.