Hail in North Dakota, June 2, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
323 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN OVERALL TREND OF
SURFACE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/LOW THAT
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
WRF AND NAM BOTH DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT.
LEAN TOWARD THE STABLE MODELS AND WILL LOWER POPS OVER PREVIOUS
FORECAST BUT NOT TAKE THEM OUT COMPLETELY. SHOULD SEE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TODAY AHEAD OF THE LOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MAX TEMPS
TODAY LOOKS GOOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE BETTER
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA ESTABLISHING FAIRLY GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT
AND WARM FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LARGE HAIL. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN
THE FORECAST FRIDAY AS COOLER MOIST AIR WRAPS AROUND THE BACK OF
THE LOW. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD BE COOLER AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIR SHAPE WITH MAIN FEATURES WITH USUAL
DISAGREEMENT OF IN SMALLER SCALE. WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR
THE EXTENDED GRIDS TONIGHT.

PERSISTENT CONUS RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED THOUGH WITH UP TO
THREE SEPARATE CLOSED LOWS SURROUNDING THE RIDGE. THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL HINGE ON HOW PIECES OF ENERGY IN THESE LOWS MOVE IN
BROAD STREAM OF WESTERLIES MOVING FROM CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND TROUGHING FROM POLAR LOW TO LAST SYSTEM MOVING
FROM HUDSON BAY TO OFFSHORE EAST COAST.

SCATTERED LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF EXTENDED WITH BEST CHANCE
FOR LONGER LASTING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHERE MODEL QPF IS CENTERED ALONG CANADIAN BORDER AND THEN AGAIN
WITH LARGE PRECIPITATION CENTER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR HIGH END OF SEASONABLE WITH STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US MODERATED BY TRANSIENT LOW PRESSURE
LOBES.

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT LESS
LIKELY AS STRONG MCS IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA APPEARS TO BE BLOCKING
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE NORTH ON STRONG 85H WINDS. HOWEVER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL
MAIN THREAT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TSW/HAW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
344 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-030845-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
344 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011 /244 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR DETAILS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG CAPE
AND GOOD SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...THEN A
CHANCE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.