Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 2, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE MTNS. CONDITIONS ARE JUST ABOUT AS
EXPECTED. CAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 5000 J/KG WITH DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000
J/KG AND DELTA THETA-E VALUES OVER 30. ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD
PRODUCE A SEVERE DOWNBURST. LARGE HAIL IS LESS LIKELY DUE THE THE
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL...BUT THE LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT KEEPS THE
THREAT IN PLACE. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-26. STILL EXPECT BEST COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS...BUT STORMS COULD
FORM OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AS WELL. IN FACT...STORMS COULD LINGER
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THRU THE EVENING. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVERNIGHT...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER NC DUE THE THE DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE AIR MASS DOES NOT REACH NE GA AND THE UPSTATE...SO ABOVE NORMAL
LOWS CONTINUE THERE. SHOULD STILL BE SOME FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND
WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAIN FALLS IN THE UPSTATE AND NE GA.

DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS THE BOARD AS THE DRY AIR MASS DOES
EDGE ACROSS EVEN THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON HOW DRY. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN
THE GFS...SO HAVE TAKEN A MDL BLEND. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MTNS AND
THE UPSTATE/NE GA WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME UNSTABLE FRI AFTERNOON.
STILL...THE CAPE VALUES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH COOLER TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA WHICH COULD PROVIDE FORCING TO BREAK ANY CAP. THEREFORE...WILL
GO WITH CHC POP WEST OF AVL AND THE NE GA/UPSTATE MTNS...WITH SLIGHT
CHC REST OF THE NC MTNS AND WEST OF I-26 IN THE UPSTATE AND NE GA.
SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEST AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE STRONG UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL ROTATE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
ACROSS...AN AREA OF NVA COMBINED WITH SOUNDINGS FEATURING VERY WARM
MID LEVELS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT QUITE HOSTILE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. AS SUCH...I HAVE REMOVED THE
MOUNTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES I INHERITED. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM
BACK UP INTO THE LOW 90S EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTER WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NC. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SUPPRESSED FURTHER TO THE WEST AND THE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR HIGHER THAN ON
SATURDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
YOU GO FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THEREFORE...CHANCE
POPS WILL BE ADDED IN THESE AREAS...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR
LESS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE UPSTATE. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONE GET SUPPRESSED
TO THE WEST...UPPER HEIGHTS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER. THIS WILL YIELD TEMPS INTO
THE MID 90S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...LOW 90S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 1 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVING FROM THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...TO THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION BY THURSDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED TO
OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT
WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER SOUTH BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH OUR AREA IN THE
WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONT IN THE NORTHEAST. SMALL POPS
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...CLOSEST OT THE DEPARTING FRONT...MIGRATING TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL COME INTO PLAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUNS SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...EVEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT NLY WIND WITH SCT CU AND BKN CI INTO EARLY EVENING.
WIND BECOMES LIGHT NE BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CU AND BKN
CI. NELY WIND INCREASES IN SPEED TOWARD DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE NE. COULD EVEN BE SOME LOW END GUSTS AS MIXING
BEGINS. WITH THE WIND AND DRIER AIRMASS...DO NOT EXPECT A REPEAT OF
MORNING BR/HZ. BKN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLY SOME MID CLOUD
CIGS AS WELL.

ELSEWHERE...NLY WIND CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NC
SITES...BUT S TO SW WIND DEVELOPS FOR THE SC SITES. GOOD CHANCE OF
TSTMS STILL EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A KAVL TO KGSP LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE KEPT CB MENTION IN THOSE AREAS.
KHKY SHUD REMAIN DRY. TEMPO LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE...BUT LEFT OUT OF
TAF FOR NOW. EXPECT LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. N TO NE WIND PICKS UP AGAIN NEAR DAYBREAK.
DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD REACH KHKY...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF
THE OTHER STIES. THAT SAID...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT
KAVL SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR THERE. WILL LEAVE OTHERS MVFR...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR THO WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER.
EXPECT BKN CIRRUS THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...DIURNAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG LIKELY AS WELL.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
525 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048>053-058-059-062>065-068-505>510-
SCZ001>014-019-030930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
525 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ENOUGH TO UPROOT TREES AND BRING DOWN
POWERLINES. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES
OR QUARTERS IS EXPECTED AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-035>037-056-057-069>072-082-501>504-030930-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
525 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1042 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             11 NNW CLARKESVILLE     34.76N 83.60W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       HABERSHAM          GA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTS NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

BSH