High Wind in North Carolina, November 4, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
951 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
BUILD OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...RAIN IS ENDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC..ANTICIPATE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RANGING FROM 42 TO
50 DEGREES OVER LAND AND 50 TO 55 OVER THE OUTER BANKS. IT APPEARS
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER ONSLOW COUNTY SO IT WAS
RECENTLY ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY END LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY SO THE ENDING
TIME WAS MOVED FROM 11PM UP TO 5PM. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...BY EARLY SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO GEORGIA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SATURATION UP TO ABOUT 700-800 MB...ESPECIALLY DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL FORECAST A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
DURING SATURDAY. THESE CLOUDS AND THE WEAK CAA SHOULD HOLD MAX
TEMPS SATURDAY IN THE 56 TO 61 DEGREE RANGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES SATURDAY WITH THE LINGER MOISTURE AND CONTINUED STEEP
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY...THE COMPLEX LOW PRES SYSTEM PRESENTLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SWWD SAT NIGHT AND SUN TO
APPOX 500-600 MI SE OF CAPE HATTERAS AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
THROUGH WED WHILE BROAD SFC HIGH PRES PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. SHARP UPPER RIDGING WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE EAST
COAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS A LOW PRES
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THIS SET UP EXPECTED
TO BRING NELY FLOW ACROSS ERN NC THROUGH WED BELOW A STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 850MB. INITIALLY MODEL SOUNDINGS DIFFER SOME ON
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...BRING
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT OF STCU CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND NELY FLOW THINK THE MORE
MOIST NAM SOUNDINGS MAY BE ON TRACK...HOWEVER IT IS CONTRADICTED
BY IT'S OWN MOS GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES LITTLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR SUN-MON AND LOWERED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SUN INTO THE MID 60S...HOWEVER IF A SOLID STCU
DECK PERSISTS THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND 60. SOME
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO MON IN REGARD TO AMOUNT OF STCU WITH
THE STRONG INVERSION PERSISTING AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE TEMPS...BUT
EXPECT A FEW MORE BREAKS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE INVERSION
WEAKENS TUE AND HAS PRETTY MUCH ERODED BY WED WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST...WITH INCREASING
UPPER CLOUDS WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...AND WILL KEEP
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO EXPECT WARMER TEMPS BOTH TUE AND WED
WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L/M70S.

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES LATE WED AND THU WHILE THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM WELL OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE NW WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SE. THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THE SFC FRONT AND ASSOC UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE LOW CHANCES POPS WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS THU NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE LINGERING POPS FRI MORNING ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE REGION WITH CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST
UNTIL LATE EVENING WITH PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECT THE REGION AS
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. CEILINGS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE AFTER ABOUT 03Z WITH BETTER
MIXING AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP MOVING OUT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT
BROKEN STRATOCUMLUS GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE UP THROUGH THE 700-800 MB
LEVEL.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY...MODEL NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SUN AND MON BRINGING UNCERTAINLY IN CIGS THIS
PERIOD. A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION BELOW AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NELY FLOW ACROSS RTES. COULD SEE STCU
DECK PERSIST SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO MON. CIGS COULD REMAIN IN THE
MVFR RANGE FOR MUCH OF SUN BUT MAY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT AND IF THEY PERSIST INTO
MON WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INVERSION
ERODES TUE AND WED AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE STRONG SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 7 TO 10 FOOT RANGE BUT WILL PEAK IN THE 15 TO
18 FOOT RANGE ON SATURDAY PER LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY... LOW PRES PUSHES TO AROUND 500 NM SE OF THE
WATERS WHILE SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL BRING NELY
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GALES EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY SAT EVE
AND TO AOB 20 KT BY SUN MORNING...HOWEVER A PROLONGED NELY FETCH
WILL BRING ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEAK.
SEAS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 12-16 FT SAT NIGHT WHICH GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH SUN NIGHT TO AROUND 5-8 FT BY MON MORNING AND
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THIS RANGE MON THROUGH WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...HAVE ISSUED HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FROM CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH SUN. AT THIS TIME
THINK MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE AREAS NORTH OF HATTERAS
WITH SEAS LIKELY PEAKING AT 15-18FT SATURDAY.

ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO
SOUND...LOWER NEUSE RIVER...AND OBX DARE. STRONG N/NE WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASE WATER LEVELS OF 2-3FT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
WILL ALSO LEAD TO OVERWASH FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS...ESP
THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE PORTIONS ALONG HWY 12.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ095-098-103-104.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ093>095.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ095.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/HSA
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/HSA/SK
MARINE...CTC/HSA/SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
813 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2011

NCZ029-044-045-079-080-090>092-051000-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-GREENE-BEAUFORT-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-
813 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ093-094-051000-
CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
813 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS IT INTENSIFIES
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE RESULTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER COASTAL AREAS. WINDS COULD GUST TO 40 MPH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ103-051000-
OUTER BANKS DARE-
813 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS IT INTENSIFIES
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE RESULTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER COASTAL AREAS. WINDS COULD GUST TO 50 MPH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-051000-
CARTERET-
813 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS IT INTENSIFIES
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE RESULTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER COASTAL AREAS. WINDS COULD GUST TO 45 MPH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ098-051000-
ONSLOW-
813 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS IT INTENSIFIES
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE RESULTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER COASTAL AREAS. WINDS COULD GUST TO 50 MPH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ104-051000-
OUTER BANKS HYDE-
813 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2011

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS IT INTENSIFIES
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE RESULTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER COASTAL AREAS. WINDS COULD GUST TO 45 MPH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ046-047-081-051000-
TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-MAINLAND HYDE-
813 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS IT INTENSIFIES
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE RESULTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER COASTAL AREAS. WINDS COULD GUST TO 40 MPH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.