Tornado and Hail in North Carolina, November 16, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND REACH
THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.  COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SETUP LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SEVERE TSRA MOVING TOWARD THE CWFA FROM GA ATTM.
STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SVR STORMS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. HIGH CAPE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR COMBINED WITH STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH HELICITY
VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO ROTATING STORMS AND POSSIBLY HYBRID
SUPERCELLS. QLCS TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A WATCH EAST AND POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...URBAN
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF REPEATED STORMS MOVE OVER IN
RAPID SUCCESSION. LEAF CLOGGED STORM DRAINS COULD LEAD TO STREET
FLOODING OR WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS. ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWS WILL STILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY THU MORN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THAT SAID...SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY
BEFORE DEEP DRYING MOVES IN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
MTNS AS WELL. HOWEVER...BEST NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND CAA DOES NOT KICK
IN UNTIL MID MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL GIVEN THAT
THE MOISTURE IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE STRONGEST CAA IS NOT
COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE SOME NON-TYPICAL
DIURNAL TREND TO TEMPS...BUT STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THAT SAID...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS...ENDING UP 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL BE QUIET AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND TAKES
UP A POSITION NEAR THE COAST BY LATE FRI. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT CLEAR CONDITIONS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...
WITH ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON CU ON SAT.
COOL LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES INITIALLY WILL PROMOTE TEMPS BELOW
CLIMO THROUGH FRI NIGHT. IN FACT...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS BOTH THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL
WELL BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS
WILL BEGIN ON SAT WITH MAX TEMPS APPROACHING CLIMO. GENERALLY USED A
MOS BLEND FOR THERMAL FIELDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SUN INTO MON. SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL OVER FAR WEST NC. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO
STAND STRONG ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TUE TO PREVENT INITIAL COLD
FRONT FROM HAVING MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE SCATTERED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS FROM MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA WED...SO
WILL RAMP UP POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE ON WED. TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MON AND TUE. STAYED
CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FIELDS WHICH USED ESSENTIAL A GFS/ECWMF BLEND

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT THE CURRENT VFR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS MORE SHOWERS
AND LATER SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. EXPECT
MVFR AND GUSTY SW WINDS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNSET. GUSTS DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT CIGS LOWER THRU MVFR TO IFR. EXPECT IFR CIGS
AND MVFR VSBY IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. PRECIP AND IFR CIGS END AFTER
DAYBREAK...BUT MVFR CIGS LINGER THRU THE MORNING. CIGS RISE TO LOW
VFR AROUND NOON. SWLY WINDS THIS EVENING VEER TO NW BEFORE MIDNIGHT
THEN NNE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND BECOMES NLY AND GUSTY WITH MIXING
AFTER DAYBREAK THU.

ELSEWHERE...IFR TO MVFR WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AS SHOWERS AND
TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. SWLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH AND TURN NWLY THRU THE EVENING. EXPECT IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS WITH
NLY WINDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO LOW VFR THRU THE MORNING THU AS
PRECIP ENDS. NLY WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING BUT BECOME GUSTY AT
KAVL.

OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS MAY RETURN FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJB
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ009-
014-172030-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
YORK-CHESTER-
325 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTH
GEORGIA...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL
PERSIST WHICH HAS RESULTED IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE A THREAT OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MAIN THREATS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE FROM DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THE VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A THREAT
OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. URBAN AREAS WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING DUE TO STROM DRAINS BEING CLOGGED
IN PLACES BY FALLEN LEAVES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>008-010>013-019-172030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
325 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 890 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTH
GEORGIA...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL
PERSIST WHICH HAS RESULTED IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE A THREAT OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MAIN THREATS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE FROM DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THE VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A THREAT
OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. URBAN AREAS WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING DUE TO STROM DRAINS BEING CLOGGED
IN PLACES BY FALLEN LEAVES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

SCZ001-002-004-005-162030-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
250 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OCONEE AND PICKENS
COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EST...

AT 245 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF LONG CREEK...OR 6 MILES WEST OF
WALHALLA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  KEOWEE...WALHALLA...SIX MILE...SALEM...ROCKY BOTTOM...
  PUMPKINTOWN...PICKENS...NORRIS...NINE TIMES...MOUNTAIN REST...
  LIBERTY...EASLEY AND DACUSVILLE.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3487 8324 3507 8276 3505 8274 3506 8271
      3507 8257 3505 8260 3503 8258 3501 8260
      3501 8254 3498 8254 3483 8248 3481 8249
      3478 8255 3465 8318 3482 8327

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
307 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

SCZ003-006-007-162045-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
307 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND NORTHERN
SPARTANBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EST...

AT 301 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BEREA...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN
GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PELHAM ROAD
  AT I-85...CHERRYDALE POINT...LAKE ROBINSON...HAYWOOD MALL...GSP
  AIRPORT...FURMAN UNIVERSITY...LAKE BOWEN...WELLFORD...WELCOME...
  TRAVELERS REST...TAYLORS...SPARTANBURG...PARIS MOUNTAIN STATE
  PARK...MAYO...LYMAN...INMAN...GREER...DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...
  GOWENSVILLE...FINGERVILLE...DUNCAN...COWPENS...CHESNEE...
  CAMPOBELLO...BOILING SPRINGS SC AND BEREA.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3479 8246 3482 8249 3483 8248 3483 8249
      3488 8249 3497 8253 3520 8207 3518 8187
      3508 8181 3504 8181 3503 8179 3496 8177

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

SCZ006-010>012-162130-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-LAURENS-
345 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN ANDERSON...NORTHEASTERN
ABBEVILLE...NORTHERN LAURENS AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES
THROUGH 430 PM EST...

AT 342 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF ANTREVILLE...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BOYD MILL
  POND...PRINCETON...ORA...LAURENS...HONEA PATH...HICKORY TAVERN...
  GRAY COURT...DUE WEST...DONALDS AND ANTREVILLE.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3442 8265 3472 8207 3469 8205 3466 8200
      3465 8195 3458 8187 3460 8184 3456 8182
      3439 8223 3441 8225 3437 8230 3427 8254

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
425 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     TORNADO          5 W LAURENS             34.49N 82.11W
11/16/2011                   LAURENS            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAURENS COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPUTY OBSERVED A FUNNEL CLOUD
            WITH POSSIBLE DEBRIS.

&&

LG