As a trailing short wave trough aloft moved across the region, a sharpening of the surface lee side trough occurred. With a very moist air mass and moderate instability also in place across the region, scattered severe thunderstorms were able to develop across the forecast area.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
As a trailing short wave trough aloft moved across the region, a sharpening of the surface lee side trough occurred. With a very moist air mass and moderate instability also in place across the region, scattered severe thunderstorms were able to develop across the forecast area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 25, 9:40 AM EST, 4 hours 13 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1040 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE EAST THROUGH OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1040 AM MONDAY... TODAY AND TONIGHT... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR THE KDCA AREA ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT INTO NORTHEAST GA. A BETTER DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THROUGH A WEAK SFC LOW NEAR KDCA TO NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND THEN WESTWARD. A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WV SAT IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IN THE MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERE INCLUDING A SHEAR AXIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A LARGER DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWEST TO THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS. MORNING RAOBS INDICATED A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.25 INCHES AT KGSO/KMHX. EXPECT SEVERAL MORE HOURS WITHOUT CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY AFTN AS CENTRAL NC REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS IN PLACE. DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT EAST AND CONVECTION WILL REACH AND MOVE EAST OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/WESTERN PIEDMONT INITIALLY WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS WELL ADVERTISED WITH VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION WRF SIMULATIONS WHICH SHOW A LOOSELY ORGANIZED AXIS OF GREATER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD HAVE AN EASTWARD MOTION WHICH SHOULD LIMIT BUT NOT PRECLUDE ANY FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOISTURE LADEN. MAIN THREAT FROM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS AROUND WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SOME FLASH FLOODING ACROSS URBAN AREAS AND LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES THIS MORNING WERE 5 TO 10M LOWER THAN SUNDAY WITH SOME VERY SIGHT COOL ADVECTION AT 850/700 MB. WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING WEST...TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPS...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDECIES AROUND 105 FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE SANDHILLS. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AS IS. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO LESSEN IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT... AS THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC. WE MAY EVEN SEE A GOOD BIT OF CLEARING WORK INTO NORTH/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. IF THIS HAPPENS THEN WE MAY SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST. TUESDAY... DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS AND ANY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL AGAIN BE FROM DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALIZE FLOODING (MAINLY URBAN). HIGHS TEMPS TUESDAY AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. BLAES/BSD && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM MONDAY... FOR TUESDAY NIGHT: EXPECT THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO HAVE PUSHED INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NC BY EVENING... FOLLOWED BY A TREND TO NO POPS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WE LOSE UPPER SUPPORT FOR ASCENT FROM THE UPPER JET PUSHING EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE SUBSIDING EFFECTS OF THIS EXITING UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE AUGMENTED BY RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT... AS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC SHIFTS EAST TO THE MARITIMES WITH ITS SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING TROUGH MOVING OFF OUR COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE SOUTHWARD-PUSHING 850 MB TROUGH WITH LOWER THETA-E AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON CLOUD COVER WITH THE NAM HOLDING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA. SUCH CLOUDINESS APPEARS REASONABLE WITH WEAK STEERING IN THIS LAYER CAPPED BY STABILIZING AIR... BUT WILL TEMPER THE NAM SOLUTION BY LOWERING COVERAGE. ENOUGH COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE THEN TO ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. LOWS 70-75. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE STEADILY ALOFT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS FURTHER WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... LOWER MISS VALLEY... MID SOUTH/GULF STATES... AND SOUTHEAST. MODELS GENERATE PATCHY LOW QPF OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NC AS THE 850 MB TROUGH BEGINS TO HEAD BACK TO THE NNW AND DISSIPATES... ALLOWING THETA-E VALUES TO REBOUND AS THE PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. BUT WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH NC WITH LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN... LOW PRECIP WATER... AND A LACK OF FORCING FEATURES... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS 93-96... IN LINE WITH ABOVE-NORMAL REBOUNDING THICKNESSES... AND LOWS 71-75. -GIH && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 235 AM MONDAY... FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY: WHILE THE GFS PLACES A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ACROSS NC AND BRINGS CONVECTION BACK INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC BOTH DAYS... THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AS WELL AS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL STRENGTHEN THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST... RESULTING IN A DRIER COLUMN AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP DESPITE THE LINGERING PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH. THIS LATTER SCENARIO WITH ITS MORE BROAD SUPPORT IS FAVORED. THICKNESSES RISE FURTHER... TO 15 METERS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND 20-25 METERS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY... AND FORECAST HIGHS OF 94-98 AND 96-101 RESPECTIVELY STILL LOOKS FINE. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS. FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY: SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING EASTWARD WITHIN THE FAST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA ALLOWS A SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS BAGGY TROUGHING REDEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NOAM. THE FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK BUT INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER NC... IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET WHOSE CENTER TRAVERSES THE ADIRONDACKS/WHITE MOUNTAINS... AND SLOWLY DEEPENING MOISTURE TO LEAD TO SCATTERED (IF NOT NUMEROUS) SHOWERS AND STORMS... FOCUSED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THICKNESSES DIP A BIT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF GREATER CLOUD COVER... YET THEY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S. -GIH && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 735 AM MONDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF LINGER ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO JUST CARRY CB IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. DRIER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WORK INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. IF WE ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OFF SOME ACROSS THE NORTH... EXPECT WE COULD HAVE SOME MVFR/IFR VISBYS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION CHANCES DWINDLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE STABLE. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS...EXPECT A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG OR HAZE AROUND SUNRISE. && .CLIMATE... GSO RDU DATE HIGH/YEAR HIGH MIN/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH MIN/YEAR THU 28: 100/1952 74/1987 104/1952 75/1997 FRI 29: 101/1952 75/2010 104/1952 76/2002 SAT 30: 97/1954 74/1931 101/1953 75/2008 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ042-075>078-084>086-088-089. && SYNOPSIS...BSD NEAR TERM...BLAES/BSD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...BSD/KRR/GIH CLIMATE...MWS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1046 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2011 NCZ042-075>078-084>086-088-089-261500- JOHNSTON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND- SAMPSON- 1046 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2011 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HEAT ADVISORY. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK. NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-073-074-083-261500- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-ANSON- 1046 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK. BLAES
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1119 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0312 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 WSW PRINCETON 35.43N 78.24W
07/23/2011 JOHNSTON NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
MAINTENANCE YARDS REPORTED MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN THE
BROGDEN AREA OF JOHNSTON COUNTY
&&
EVENT NUMBER RAH1101095
ELLISPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1227 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0433 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE KERNERSVILLE 36.07N 80.04W
07/24/2011 GUILFORD NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON BUNKER HILL ROAD AND SANDY RIDGE
ROAD
&&
EVENT NUMBER RAH1101096
ELLISPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1249 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0448 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N ROUGEMONT 36.24N 78.93W
07/24/2011 PERSON NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 501
NEAR THE DURHAM AND PERSON COUNTY LINE
&&
EVENT NUMBER RAH1101097
ELLISSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
241 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011
NCZ038-039-073-074-251945-
DAVIDSON-MONTGOMERY-RANDOLPH-STANLY-
241 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS STANLY...RANDOLPH...
MONTGOMERY AND DAVIDSON COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...
AT 241 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER BADIN LAKE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ALBEMARLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...BADIN LAKE...ELDORADO.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.
SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.
IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.
&&
LAT...LON 3544 8035 3550 8031 3551 8029 3551 8019
3555 8022 3558 8021 3564 8029 3563 7979
3548 7977 3530 7971 3527 7971 3524 7967
3521 7966 3523 8038
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 273DEG 8KT 3549 8011
ELLISSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 246 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011 NCZ024-025-040-041-251945- CHATHAM-DURHAM-ORANGE-WAKE- 246 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS WAKE...ORANGE...DURHAM AND CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT... AT 246 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER DURHAM...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...DURHAM...BETHESDA... AND...RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK...RDU INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. HAZARDS INCLUDE... GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS... POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS. && LAT...LON 3611 7883 3587 7875 3583 7911 3601 7916 TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 267DEG 14KT 3594 7894 BLAES
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 54 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:54 UTC.
8 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A roof was blown off of an apartment building on Weymouth Street in Durham. (No monetary damage estimate was known.) Also, a couple of trees were blown down on Shannon Street near MLK Parkway in Durham.
One tree was blown down on Mebane Oaks Road near Teer.
A couple of trees were blown down along a swath from a few miles southwest of Garner to a few miles southeast of Garner.
One tree was blown down near Efland.
Power lines were reported down due to falling tree limbs. Also, one tree was blown down near Red Oak.
A couple of trees and power lines were blown down along a short swath just north of Flowers.
One tree was blown down on NC Highway 97 near Cool Spring Road just northeast of Rocky Mount.
A few trees were blown down along a swath from near Peachland to near Oakboro.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 332767, 332768, 332769, 332770, 332771, 332772, 332773, 332776.