Hail in Minnesota, July 25, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
320 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...

VERY SUBTLE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND IS NOW
POISED ALONG OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14. BOTH THE HRRR AND
RUC ADVERTISE A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  CERTAINLY CAN NOT MAKE OUT
ANYTHING ON WATER VAPOR.   BUT CU FIELD NEAR KATY APPEARS AGITATED.
IF THIS FEATURE IS REAL...COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND EASTER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAIRLY ANEMIC...BUT INSTABILITY IS
GREAT ENOUGH TO GET AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUST.

MODELS ALSO SHOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.  THINK ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH
LACK OF FORCING.  LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
MILD IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD RECEDE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WITH HEATING
OF MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING OR
EVEN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO AFFECT AREA...
THOUGH WILL KEEP A LITTLE CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT FAR
NORTHEAST. TUESDAY NIGHT DEVELOPMENT COULD BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT
THROUGH FEEL THE THREAT WILL STILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTH.
SEVERE THREAT SEEMS REASONABLE AS DEPICTED BY SPC WITH OUR AREA ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA.

MEANWHILE...HOT HUMID AIR ALREADY DOING A DECENT JOB OF COMING BACK
IN. LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY QUESTION FOR TUESDAY...AND
AFTER COORDINATION HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. MID 80S
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHWEST ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD.

WEAK UPPER TOUGH PASSING AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WEAK INFLUX OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR LOOKING A LITTLE WEAKER THAN IT HAS BEEN
NEVERTHELESS A COOLING TO HIGHS IN THE 80S STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE QUESTION IS WILL IT GET MUCH LESS HUMID
AND FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE NOT VERY MUCH. THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE THURSDAY AS TAIL OF SHORT WAVE DRIFTS BY...THEN MINIMAL
NOCTURNAL CHANCES FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
WARMING...THEN NO MENTION ON MONDAY WITH HOT AIR AT ALL LEVELS.
/ WILLIAMS

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG HIGHWAY 14 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER 22Z. MAY HAVE SOME STORM DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WORK INT CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER
03Z. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO STRUGGLE TO MOVE MUCH EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY....BUT COULD IMPACT KHON TERMINAL AFTER 05Z. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITHIN CONVECTION.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...THOUGH AM
NOT EXPECTING VISIBILITIES TO FALL MUCH BELOW 3SM IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

WILLIAMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1020 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2011

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-261200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1020 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY
PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE HAIL AFTER SUNSET NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM CHAMBERLAIN TO MITCHELL TO DE SMET. THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

FLOODING...
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE JAMES AND
LITTLE SIOUX RIVERS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

HIGH RELEASES ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE
SUMMER. HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BETWEEN
CHAMBERLAIN AND SIOUX CITY. THE HIGH FLOWS ON THE MISSOURI RIVER
WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING ON THE BIG SIOUX RIVER NEAR SIOUX CITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE IN THE EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER. HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD
INTERSTATE 29 AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER SUNSET. HAIL UP
TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS OVER 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS ADJACENT AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 8 PM IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SCHUMACHER