Flash Flood and Hail in New York, September 11 to 13, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1253 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NEW YORK STATE TODAY AND
BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES
TO RETURN MONDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 1245 PM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF SITS ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. OVER THE PAST
HOUR...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THIS...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS ALONG AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXTENDING
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE FROM DUNKIRK...INLAND TO JUST SOUTH
OF BATAVIA. THE GREATEST CONCERN IS A CELL STARTING TO BACKBUILD
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH COLLINS. IN ADDITION...SOME CELLS HAVE
STRENGTHENED...WITH A MODEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. WIND PROFILES ARE LIGHT...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY
OF THE PULSE VARIETY.

AFTERNOON UPDATE ADDS A MENTION OF WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN
ALONG THIS NARROW BOUNDARY OF FOCUS. FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. AREAL
COVERAGE OF THIS SHOULD BE SMALL...BUT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
IS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT MOST ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST.
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL TREND MAY BE OVER THE
LAKES...WHERE THE NAM12 AND LATEST SREF GUIDANCE STILL INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE CAUSE FOR
THIS PCPN IS NOT IMMEDIATELY OBVIOUS SINCE THE TEMPERATURE LAPSE
RATES OVER THE LAKES WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE NAM12 SURFACE WIND FIELD DOES HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE ERIE AS THE WINDS
CHANNEL UP THE LAKE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTH TOWARD NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT. SINCE THIS IS THE THIRD DAY
IN A ROW THAT THE NAM12 AND SREF HAVE BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS
TREND...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR LATE
TONIGHT. THE NAM12 QPF FIELDS SUGGESTS A POSSIBILITY OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT PCPN OVER LAKE ERIE WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN PLACE.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON READINGS TO BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL STILL WARM INTO THE 70S.

 &&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND STILL IN CONTROL. THERE ARE
ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...INCLUDING KJHW...BUT THESE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR AS SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES APPROACH THE
REGION TODAY...VFR CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND BEING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONVECTIVE SO WILL INCLUDE
A VCSH QUALIFIER IN THE TAF FOR THE WESTERN 4 TAF SITES. DO NOT
EXPECT DAYTIME CONVECTION TO IMPACT KART AT THIS TIME.

WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR OR LOWER.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ENDING.
TUESDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN STORY DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A SHARP
COLD FRONT. THIS EVENT WILL BRING AN END TO SOME FINE EARLY
SEPTEMBER WEATHER...WHILE PLUNGING THE REGION INTO THE THROWS OF
FALL. THIS COULD ALL TAKE PLACE WITH THE HELP OF SOME GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE FOLLOWED UP BY SOME
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. IT IS THAT TIME OF YEAR. SOME
DETAILS...

ON MONDAY...AN H5 TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
SHEAR OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE WEAK SFC BASED RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVER OUR REGION. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...A
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS WILL MAINLY BE THE CASE OVER THE
WRN SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS OF
13/14C WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPS TO THE TUNE OF 75 TO
80 ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

A STRENGHTENING COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WELL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PROMOTE DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WHILE A STRONG SW FLOW
WILL HOLD TEMPS UP AND HELP TO MAKE THIS THE MILDEST NIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 60 TO
65...WITH WARMER READINGS POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE
IAG FRONTIER. THESE TEMPS WILL BE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEG F ABV NORMAL.

IT WILL DEFINITELY BE WARM ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ON
TUESDAY AS WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIR WILL BE STREAMING ACROSS OUR
REGION IN ADVANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO KBUF/KIAG BY LATE AFTERNOON. H85 TEMPS
SHOULD AVERAGE AT LEAST 14C AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE...SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH TO WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF 80. NORMALLY WARMER SITES...SUCH AS THE GEN
VALLEY...COULD SEE 85. THE SUMMERY WEATHER SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY BEFORE CONVECTION
BREAKS THROUGH A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.

SBCAPES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY...WITH SHEAR BEING SUPPLIED BY A 40-45KT LOW LEVEL JET
IN THE VCNTY OF 7-10K FT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS BEING GENERATED BY THE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
EVENING COULD BE ENHANCED BY THESE FACTORS...SO THERE WILL BE THE
RISK FOR GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PROSPECT WILL BE CONVEYED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.

OTHERWISE...HIGH LIKELY POPS WILL BE USED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG
FRONT. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 50S.

COLDER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS
STEADILY DROPPING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS (C). THIS WILL PREVENT
OUR TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID 60S...WHILE ALSO
SETTING UP CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE LAKES. CURRENT
LK SFC TEMPS RANGE FROM ABOUT 65 TO 70. SYNOPTICALLY...LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WHILE A BROAD CYCLONIC
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE RIDGING AND PRESENCE OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL
MIXING FROM A RELATIVELY STRONG EARLY SEPT SUN...SHOULD WORK AGAINST
ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE
SETTING SUN.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH SOME LAKE INSTABILITY
COULD TOUCH OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EARLY. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LET THERE BE NO DOUBT...IT WILL BE QUITE AUTUMNAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. A DEEP H5 TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL CIRCULATE ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY
AIR ACROSS OUR REGION AS H85/925 TEMPS WILL BE 2/3 STD BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...MAKING
IT FEEL MORE LIKE MID OCTOBER. TALK ABOUT TRICK OR TREAT!

IN REGARDS TO PCPN...THE CHILLY AIR WILL HELP TO GENERATE SOME SCT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT FOR THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD...THE
WEATHER WILL BE DRY.

ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO
THE BASE OF THE H5 TROUGH THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS PUSH FROM THE NORTH WILL REINFORCE AN ALREADY CHILLY
AIRMASS TO THE POINT WHERE H85 TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND -2C. THE
RESULTING TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS AIRMASS AND THE WARM LK
SURFACES (18-21C) WILL SET UP MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKES. SEVERAL INHIBITING FACTORS FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE IN PLACE THOUGH...INCLUDING A SHORT FETCH AND LESS THAN
FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR...COURTESY OF A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE UPPER
LAKES. THE HIGH WILL PRODUCE A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE RESIDENCE TIME WHILE EVENTUALLY PRODUCING A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION TO SQUELCH DEEP CONVECTION. WILL USE CHC TO SLGT CHC POPS
FOR THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND FOR
SITES SE OF LK ERIE.

SFC TEMPS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...WITH ONLY
A FEW LUCKY SITES SE OF LK ONTARIO TICKLING THE 60 DEGREE MARK. FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST OF THE TUG
HILL AND ACROSS THE SRN TIER VALLEYS TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LK ONTARIO.

EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY BE CHILLY ENOUGH FOR LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY...LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL PREVENT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FROM COMING INTO PLAY. HIGH TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60...WHILE TEMPS WILL
MODERATE A BIT SATURDAY TO THE LOW-MID 60S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE CLOSE TO 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NY/PA LINE AT 15Z. A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS...WITH RADAR SHOWING EXPANDING SHOWERS BACK ACROSS WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AS WELL.

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE TEMPORARY
IMPACT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO JHW LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND BUF/IAG
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS
TO MVFR OR LOWER.

OUTSIDE OF THIS...A PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED AT
JHW. THIS WILL LIKELY LIFT AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH...WHICH WILL
HELP MIX THIS TRAPPED LOW MOISTURE OUT.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ENDING.
TUESDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD NEW YORK STATE.
AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO PICK UP ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY LAKE ERIE WHERE WIND AND
WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL FRESHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS BOTH LAKES ON TUESDAY
AS A SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE LAKES TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST. COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING...WHICH MAY ENHANCE WAVES
DESPITE A RELATIVELY MODEST FLOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TJP
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL/TJP
MARINE...APFFEL/RSH/TJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
558 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2011

NYZ001>008-010-011-121000-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
558 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING COULD GENERATE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-121000-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
558 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SLOW MOVING. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. IMPACT WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED IN NATURE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING COULD GENERATE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-121000-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
558 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

RSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1234 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2011

NYZ010-019-020-085-111730-
CATTARAUGUS NY-CHAUTAUQUA NY-ERIE NY-
1234 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 1231 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND VERY
  HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NORTH COLLINS...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM MAY INCLUDE...
  NORTH COLLINS...
  HAMBURG...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 4275 7893 4279 7885 4262 7867 4253 7906
      4260 7913

AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1243 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2011

NYZ003-011>013-111745-
GENESEE NY-LIVINGSTON NY-MONROE NY-WYOMING NY-
1243 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 1241 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND
  VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
  FROM 13 MILES WEST OF PAVILION TO YORK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
  MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCLUDE...
  YORK...
  PAVILION...
  BETHANY CENTER...
  AVON...
  CALEDONIA AND LE ROY...

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND
COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 4301 7815 4302 7762 4281 7782 4281 7830

AR