Hail and Damaging Winds in New York, June 8 to 9, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
452 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL KEEP HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION INTO TOMORROW.  A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM NEAR JAMES BAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE CAPITAL
REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SRN VT NORTHWARD. AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL
LINE CONTINUES TO APPROACH NRN NY FROM SE ONTARIO. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH RUNS UNTIL 10 PM EDT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT BASED ON SOME GROUND TRUTH FROM SE ONTARIO. THIS
SQUALL LINE IS TAPPING INTO EXTREME AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY OVER
THE REGION. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND DAMAGING AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WHICH HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...A STEAMY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
REGION WITH MAXIMUM TEMPS FLIRTING WITH RECORD VALUES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. A H500 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...AND WRN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THE HOT AND HUMID AIR
OVER THE REGION. SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE COMING FOR TOMORROW
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING A LINE
OF CONVECTION OVER SE ONTARIO THAT HAS INITIATED AHEAD OF A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LAG NORTH
AND WEST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...NRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SE
ONTARIO. WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE L80S OVER THE MTNS TO L90S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND DEWPTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F...THE LAPSE DATA
YIELDS LARGE AMOUNTS OF SBCAPE OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SBCAPE
VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2000-5000 J/KG. PWAT VALUES CONTINUE
TO RANGE FROM 1-1.5 INCHES OVER THE REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...JUST THE CLEAREST FOCUSING/LIFTING
MECHANISM REMAINS UPSTREAM. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO CHC
VALUES WITH A THREAT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS BEING SEVERE WITH HAIL
OR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF DCAPE /1000-1500 J
KG/...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 C/KM. WE PLACED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN CASE AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATES ANY NEW CONVECTION...OR ANY DISSIPATING
CONVECTION REACHES THESE AREAS.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE HIRES WRF HAS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION LATE
THIS PM AND PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND THE 3KM HRRR COLUMNAR BASE REF
PRODUCT HAS TWO SEPARATE AREAS...ONE OVER THE NRN-CNTRL AREAS OF
THE FCST AREA...AND ONE OVER THE SRN TIER. THIS APPEARS TO BE
INITIALIZED OFF. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD CONTINUE SLIGHT CHC POPS AS
THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE USED IN THE GRIDS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AND CAPITAL REGION BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE VERY BALMY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID60S OVER THE MTNS...AND
MID 60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...WE CONCUR WITH THE SPC DAY 2 GRAPHIC WITH A SLIGHT RISK
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. LARGE AMOUNTS /1000-3000 J/KG/ OF SFC OR
MIXED LAYER CAPE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
/EML/ ON THE FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS. H500-700 LAPSE RATES
ARE VERY STEEP WITH VALUES AROUND 7C/KM. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
FALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM DEEP SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 25-40
KTS. THE LOW LEVEL JET ISN/T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH MULTI-CELLULAR
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SUPERCELL OR TWO. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE SULTRY AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE M80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THESE TEMPS
ARE CLOSER TO THE GFSMOS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END FROM NW TO SE
IN THE EARLY EVENING. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS IN
WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMALS FOR EARLY TO MID JUNE. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

FRIDAY...THE NAM IS AGGRESSIVE RIDGING IN A SFC HIGH SOUTH OF JAMES
BAY. THE NAM/SREF IS DRY OVER THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND
+10C. THE GFS HANGS THE FRONT OVER PA AND NJ. WE PLACED A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN TIER LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH SOME U60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT... THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS VARIABLE IN TERMS OF
THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN AHEAD OF THE OLD COLD FRONT RETURNING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD UP TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SATURDAY WITH AN APPROACHING OCCLUDED
FRONT...AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES DURING THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE NO
INSTABILITY...SO WILL MENTION JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AROUND. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP TIMING...WITH THE ECMWF FASTEST...THE NAM THE
SLOWEST AND THE GFS IN THE MIDDLE. AT LEAST ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR 50
PERCENT POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT
SLOWLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD.

ON SUNDAY THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD BRIEFLY GET INTO A WARM SECTOR
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BECOMES A VERTICALLY
STACKED CUT-OFF. THE THREAT OF THUNDER DEPENDS ON IF ANY BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE OCCLUDED FRONT OR TRIPLE POINT MOVES
THROUGH. THE DEGREE OF SURFACE WARMING WILL ALSO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON ANY SUNSHINE. WILL MENTION HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
VALLEYS WITH CHANCE THUNDER FOR SUNDAY ONLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES THROUGH.

A SECONDARY COOL FRONT OR SURFACE TROF AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY...AS THE CUT-OFF LOW MOVES
INTO EASTERN QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT THEN APPEARS THAT A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A W-NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD YIELD DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOUR...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD SOME FOG FORMATION WITH MVFR OR EVEN
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL/KPOU BETWEEN 06Z-13Z THURSDAY.
WILL MENTION MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW UNTIL THE THREAT OF FOG IS MORE
CLEAR. KALB SHOULD REMAIN VFR OR BRIEF MVFR VSBY.

THERE IS A THREAT OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...INCLUDING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SO WILL MENTION CB IN
GLOUD GROUPS FOR NOW. EXPECTED COVERAGE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO EVEN
MENTION VCSH IN TAFS JUST YET...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ON
THURSDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AGAIN...COVERAGE MAY ONLY BE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED AT THE
KGFL/KALB/POU TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-20
KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5 KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NT...VFR/MVFR. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA.
FRI-FRI NT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.
SUN...VFR/MVFR/ CHC -SHRA/-TSRA
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLDATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT.
WINDS...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT 10-15 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH RH VALUES LOWERING TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THE NEXT 5
DAYS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH SOME POOR DRAINAGE OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
ALSO...ANY THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA WILL
YIELD SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
TOO. MANY LOCATIONS NEED SOME RAINFALL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY
STRETCH OVER THE PAST 2-3 WEEKS. THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
HAS NOT HAD A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OR MORE...SINCE MAY
20TH.

DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO LAST ONLY INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THE WEEKEND.

PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM OUR OFFICE IN BURLINGTON VT FOR
DETAILS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...
LOCATION 	TEMP 	YEAR
ALB 		93	1984
GFL		92	1984
POU		95	1984
DDH		89	2007
AQW		89	2007
PSF		90	1938

LAST TIME ALB WAS AT OR ABOVE 95F WAS JULY 6 2010

THE

*DATA FROM XMACIS

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-082>084-VTZ013>015-091100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
428 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL REGION...LAKE
GEORGE NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS GREATER THAN OF EQUAL TO 58 MPH...AND LARGE HAIL ONE INCH OR
GREATER IN DIAMETER. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 35 MPH.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...HAMILTON
...HERKIMER...FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SCHENECTADY...ALBANY...SCHOHARIE...RENSSELAER...
WASHINGTON...SARATOGA...WARREN...BENNINGTON...AND WINDHAM
COUNTIES.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ058>061-063>066-091100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-
EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-
428 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND TACONICS OF EAST CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. RIGHT
NOW...THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS GREATER THAN OF EQUAL TO 58 MPH...AND LARGE HAIL ONE INCH OR
GREATER IN DIAMETER. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 35 MPH.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TAW

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
433 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

NYZ032-033-041>043-082>084-082230-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...
SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...
HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH
433 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS MOVING TOWARDS
THE ADIRONDACKS...

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY AND LAKE ONTARIO IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 60 MPH...AND WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
THIS EVENING. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM. CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD BE ON
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AND
SHOULD SEEK SHELTER NOW.

THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

JPV/OKEEFE