Hail in Iowa, June 8, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
CDFNT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST.  INIT WSHFT
BOUNDARY IS OUT AHEAD OF THE TRUE COLD AIR WITH DEW POINT
DISCONTINUITY SHOWING THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR.  EXPECT TO SEE
SOME TSRA DVLPMT TWD EVE...BUT AHEAD OF SNST AS THE CAP WEAKENS.
TSRA THIS EVE SHOULD BE ALONG AND S OF A KCID-KDSM-KRDK LINE WITH A
NARROW WINDOW FOR POTENIAL SVR WX AND +RA.  FRONT WILL STALL OVR NGT
WITH SOME WAA BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE AFT MIDN.  FOR THAT
REASON...WENT FOR FAIRLY STRONG POPS FOR THE OVR NGT PD.  MOS TEMPS
LOOK REASONABLE FOR MINS TNGT WITH BULK OF THE PUSH EARLY ON.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM ALTHOUGH A
BREAK IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.  INITIALLY ON THURSDAY...
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN IA
WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MORNING.  HAVE GONE
WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS AS ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVES ACRS THIS AREA.
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXISTS...MAINLY FROM HAIL ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY 2.00 BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE NORTH BY LATER IN
THE DAY AS UPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS.  SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL ENHANCE
THETA-E ADVECTION ACRS WESTERN IA BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACRS THE
WEST.  SEVERE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY ELEVATED WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY
SOME WIND DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE NEAR SFC INVERSION.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WAVE LIFTS
INTO THE STATE AND MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE STATE
WITH LLJ FOCUSED INTO CENTRAL IOWA.  HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THIS TIME WITH PWATS REMAINING FROM 1.75 TO 2
INCHES.  AREAL COVERAGE WILL BEGIN DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS MAIN
SYNOPTIC FORCING SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALONG WITH THE SFC WAVE.  MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF
THE CWA BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LOW.

AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD ACRS THE
STATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...GFS AND EURO INDICATE A QUICK RETURN TO WAA AND
MOISTURE RETURN ON SUNDAY AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES TO THE EAST.
THEREAFTER...WILL SEE A DAILY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEARBY
SFC BOUNDARIES AND MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION.  SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD OR
OVERLY INTENSE AS SHEAR STAYS LIMITED.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEAK
TO SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A DECENT THREAT FOR SIG RAINFALL IS TRYING SETUP WITH CDFNT STALLING
LATER TNGT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ATTM THINKING IS THAT
DYNAMICS ARE NOT ALL THERE FOR A BIG EVENT TNGT.  WOULD SEE 1/2-1
INCH OVR A WIDE AREA...BUT WITH ONLY 20 KTS OR SO OF WIND AT H8
DON'T THINK IT WILL GET OUT OF HAND.  THIS COULD SET THE STAGE IF WE
DO GET ANOTHER EVENT THU NGT...WHICH SEEMS MORE LKLY.

&&

.AVIATION...08/18Z
CFFNT NERN IA INTO THE SWRN CORNER WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF
SITES BY THIS EVE.  FIRST ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTN...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KOTM AREA.  COULD SEE TSRA BRUSH KDSM
AND KALO...BUT IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLD.  CONDS WILL DETEROIRATE OVR
NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLES.  TSRA WILL BECOME MORE WDSPRD ACRS SRN
IA WITH ISOLD TSRA IN THE N LATE TNGT OR THU MRNG.  ATTM DID NOT GO
WITH MVFR CONDS WITH CIGS...HOWEVER IF TSRA BCM MORE WDSPRD WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE HAVE CIGS FALL BLO
030.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MS JUN 11
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS JUN 11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>027-033>037-044>047-057-058-070-091100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-
HAMILTON-HARDIN-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-CASS-
340 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

IAZ028-038-039-048>050-059>062-071>075-081>086-092>097-091100-
BREMER-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-
LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
340 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL...WITH HIGH
WINDS A SECONDARY THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE THE SEVERE THREAT FOR STORMS LATER THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 600 PM UNTIL 1000 PM TONIGHT.