A disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere moved over the region during the day Wednesday, July 13th. With the help of daytime heating, conditions became unstable enough for a severe thunderstorm to develop and move over Herkimer County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ALY wrote it up.
A disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere moved over the region during the day Wednesday, July 13th. With the help of daytime heating, conditions became unstable enough for a severe thunderstorm to develop and move over Herkimer County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 13, 3:13 PM EST, 17 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 413 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 413 PM...POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE TO SWING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND ENOUGH DYNAMICAL SUPPORT TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM OR SO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...LOSS OF INSOLATION AND BUILDING LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE FROM INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD END ANY LINGERING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. USING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST PLEASANTLY REFRESHING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS. GIVEN WET GROUND CONDITIONS IN A FEW AREAS AND WINDS ABATING OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 413 PM...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. COULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID LIFT...OTHERWISE ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO GUIDANCE WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND INTRODUCE A BIT MORE GUSTINESS TO THE WIND CHARACTER TOMORROW AFTERNOON BASED OFF ENHANCED PBL MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 77 TO 82 RANGE WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT 45 TO 55...THOUGH LOCALLY COOLER IN FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES. PATCHY FOG AGAIN ALSO A GOOD BET 2 AM TO 8AM. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 413 PM...OUTSTANDING STRETCH OF MID-SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED AND HAVE GENERALLY OFFERED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST DURING MID TO LATE WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THUS EXPECTING CLEAR TO PARTLY SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES AND HUMDIITY LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL WILL SWING THROUGH TODAY DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT A TAF SITE IF A STORM IMPACTS IT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HAVE CB MENTIONED AT KGFL AND KALB WHERE THE CHANCES ARE GREATER STORMS. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. IFR-MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KGFL TONIGHT SURFACE WINDS BECOME CALM. OUTLOOK... THU-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 413 PM...NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. RIVERS AND STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THIS TIME. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...SISSON HYDROLOGY...JPV
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 402 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011 CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066- 082>084-VTZ013>015-141100- NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE- SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER- SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN- NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY- EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY- WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE- WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER- WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN- SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- 402 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...SMALL HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 35 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
206 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011
NYZ038-040-047-048-131900-
MONTGOMERY NY-SCHOHARIE NY-SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY NY-
206 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011
...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE THROUGH MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN
SCHOHARIE...SOUTHEASTERN HERKIMER AND SOUTHWESTERN SCHENECTADY
COUNTIES THROUGH 3 PM...
AT 200 PM EDT...A THUNDERSTORM WAS 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST.
JOHNSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
ST. JOHNSVILLE...FORT PLAIN...CANAJOHARIE...AMES...SHARON SPRINGS...
FULTONVILLE...FONDA...CHARLESTON FOUR CORNERS...COBLESKILL...CENTRAL
BRIDGE...AND SCHOHARIE.
GET TO SAFETY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.
LAT...LON 4303 7481 4292 7412 4250 7435 4276 7468
4283 7466 4288 7483 4295 7492SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
243 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011
NYZ032-033-038-131945-
HAMILTON NY-NORTHERN HERKIMER NY-SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-
243 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011
...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH 4 PM...
AT 238 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED
FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF STAR LAKE TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT
LEYDEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY FALL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THESE STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
SABATTIS...OLD FORGE...MCKEEVER...RAQUETTE LAKE...EAGLE BAY...BLUE
MOUNTAIN LAKE...LONG LAKE...POLAND...OHIO...AND HOFFMEISTER.
GET TO SAFETY IMMEDIATELY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.
LAT...LON 4397 7425 4393 7432 4388 7428 4288 7517
4293 7522 4306 7522 4322 7508 4326 7516
4330 7515 4334 7509 4409 7517 4406 7502
4412 7428SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011
NYZ032-033-038>043-047-050-082-083-132045-
HAMILTON NY-MONTGOMERY NY-NORTHERN FULTON NY-NORTHERN HERKIMER NY-
NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-NORTHERN WARREN NY-NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-
SCHOHARIE NY-SOUTHEAST WARREN NY-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-
354 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FULTON...MONTGOMERY...
NORTHWESTERN SARATOGA...NORTHWESTERN SCHOHARIE...NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN HAMILTON...SOUTHERN HERKIMER AND WARREN
COUNTIES THROUGH 5 PM...
AT 348 PM EDT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED
FROM INDIAN LAKE TO SPECULATOR TO STRATFORD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
35 MPH.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY FALL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THESE STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
ST. JOHNSVILLE...SPECULATOR...NORTH CREEK...NORTH RIVER...SHARON
SPRINGS...MAYFIELD...WELLSVILLE...TRIBES HILL...HAGUE...
WARRENSBURG...LAKE LUZERNE-HADLEY...AND LAKE GEORGE VILLAGE.
GET TO SAFETY IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
LAT...LON 4388 7429 4382 7421 4383 7414 4380 7405
4375 7405 4380 7350 4379 7335 4360 7342
4269 7441 4279 7467 4283 7466 4289 7486
4286 7488 4298 7522 4303 7522The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 75 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:31 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was reported down on a wire on Grant Road in Russia due to strong thunderstorm winds.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, July 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 332866.