Tornadoes and Hail in Nebraska, July 13 to 14, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
539 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2011

.AVIATION...12Z TAF.  LOW STRATUS HAS TAKEN HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS...WITH CEILINGS AT KGRI NOW
BELOW 1KFT.  13.06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOW TO LEAVE...WITH MVFR CEILINGS ONLY EXPECTED TO COME BACK
TOWARDS EARLY AFTERNOON.  THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS
LAV GUIDANCE...SO WILL GO WITH AROUND 17Z AS THE TIME FOR A RETURN
TO MVFR CEILINGS.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG STILL
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  MOST LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED REDUCED VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING HAS BEEN IN THE 2-4SM
RANGE...THOUGH SOME SPOTS FARTHER WEST WHICH ARE DEEPER IN THE LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES DROP BETWEEN 1-2SM.  WILL
CARRY A BRIEF REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KGRI IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY...AND CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES AT KGRI
IS NOT HIGH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS COULD HELP
BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT
THERE IS NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM
FORECAST MODELS IN THE TIMING OF ANYTHING REACHING KGRI. WILL
GENERALLY NOT CHANGE MUCH AND CONTINUE TO CARRY THE CURRENT PROB30
GROUP WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW SIGNS THAT
THERE COULD BE FOG OR EVEN STRATUS DEVELOPING WITH NEARLY
SATURATED CONDITIONS SHOWN IN THE LOWEST 1KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WILL GO WITH SOME LIGHT FOG AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS TO HINT AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING DEVELOPING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2011/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. A
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL DRAPED IN AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF
THE CWA...AND CONTINUES TO BE STUBBORNLY STATIONARY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNRELIABLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF QPF. PERFORMANCE OF ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN ABYSMAL AS WELL. I WILL
CONTINUE TO RELY ON PERSISTENT PATTERNS OF LATE AND HAVE KEPT TODAY
ON THE CLOUDY AND COOLER SIDE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WARMER
TO THE SOUTH FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GENERALLY HIGHER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND
MAINLY TOWARD AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
LEFTOVER THUNDERSHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM LINGERING OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY.  SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY AND THIS EVENING
THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND NORTH. ALONG WITH
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY...THIS WILL GIVE US AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THURSDAY MAY BE INTERESTING WITH A LEE TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
STORMS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN/NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...SO I LEFT SOME CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY COULD HAVE
EXTENDED THIS INTO THE EVENING AS WELL.

I HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY...BUT THIS DRY FORECAST MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AS
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST SUPPRESSION OF THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THIS COULD ALLOW PERTURBATIONS/SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS FAR ENOUGH TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SPARK MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO OUR CWA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS
WOULD CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT IF STORMS
HAPPEN TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY COULD BE
SEVERE.

GENERAL TRENDS PROJECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
I HAVE BACKED OFF HIGHS A BIT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...WE
WILL END UP WITH HIGHER HEAT INDEXES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BECAUSE OF PROJECTED
HIGHER DEWPOINTS. I ALREADY HAVE SOME POINTS IN THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS THAT ARE HITTING 106 AND 107 FOR PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

.AVIATION...KING
.DISCUSSION...HEINLEIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
834 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
131200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
834 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ISOLATED
STORMS MAY BE STRONG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GENERALLY EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

IN ADDITION...HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL AGAIN
AFFECT PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 105 SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)