Hail and Lightning Strike in New Jersey, June 17, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
203 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND PASSES TO THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY...DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH WILL HANG OVER THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY. THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY... NORTHEAST NJ AND NYC METRO...AND HAVE INCREASED POP
SIGNIFICANTLY THERE OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LOW HAS PROGRESSED INTO NW PA AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH
AS WELL...WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL AHEAD OF IT.
ADDITIONALLY...PW AXIS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY
LLJ AROUND 35 KT NEAR 2 KFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION AND
INTERACTING WITH THIS MOISTURE.

RAIN BECOMES MORE LIKELY WEST TO EAST AS THE EARLY MORNING
PROGRESSES. FORECAST MUCAPES INCREASE THROUGH AS WELL...WITH
A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE AXIS
MOVING THROUGH. BEHIND IT...UPPER LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT STILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BEFORE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. POPS BEGIN TO DROP OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL AT LEAST
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE ONLY FAR EASTERN ZONES WOULD STILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF RAINFALL.

FORECAST CAPES STILL HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE SHORT TERM. WIND SHEAR NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT INCREASING SOMEWHAT FRIDAY MORNING. GFS HINTS AT A
FAIRLY WEAK AND SMALL JET STREAK IN THE VICINITY AT THE UPPER
LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS JUST
YET...BUT THUNDERSTORMS CAN CERTAINLY HAVE AT LEAST HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH LOW PRES DEPARTING SAT MORNING...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF OVER EASTERN ZONES SAT MORNING. THERE SHOULD THEN BE A
BREAK IN ANY PRECIP OVER THE AREA MIDDAY SAT BEFORE AN UPPER LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DIVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARMING AIR ALOFT...IT SHOULD BE HARD FOR CONVECTION TO
FIRE UP...BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND DIVES INTO
THE NORTHEAST. SUN IS QUESTIONABLE...AS HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL
CANADA NOSES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND LOW PRES ALONG A WARM FRONT
NUDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW STRONG
THE HIGH IS AND IF IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE LOW AND KEEP IT
SOUTH OF THE REGION. LATEST NAM BRINGS THE LOW OVER CENTRAL NJ...
WHEREAS THE LATEST GFS KEEPS IT OVER THE DELMARVA ON SUN. HPC SEEMS
TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH THE ECMWF...AND KEEPS IT WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO KEEP THE LOW MORE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS SUCH...WILL BUMP UP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR NOW...BUT THESE NEW DEVELOPMENTS BEAR WATCHING.

THEREAFTER...FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...HIGH PRES OVER
CANADA CONTINUES TO NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL THE BASE
OF THE HIGH FLATTENS OUT AS LOW PRES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MID-WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON THROUGH TUE...THEN UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK AS THAT
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION.

TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THEN TEMPS
COULD WARM BACK UP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW PRES AND
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION TODAY...AND
THEN STALL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH CONDS FALLING TO MVFR EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 10-11Z...AND EASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 12-16Z.

THEN ISOL-SCT SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA LIKELY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN TERMINALS...WITH
APPROACH OF UPPER LOW.

MVFR CONDS THIS MORNING...SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX TO VFR DURING MID
TO LATE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...BUT COULD LINGER INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS. SUB-VFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN
SHRA/TSRA..

PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE.

MARGINAL LLWS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AT KISP/KBDR/KGON AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 2 KFT AGL INCREASE TO 30-35 KT.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...

LATE TONIGHT...POCKETS OF GROUND FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

SAT...BRIEF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

SUNDAY-MON...VFR.

TUE...SUB VFR POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BETWEEN A
DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. WITH
PERHAPS SOME HELP OF A LOW LEVEL JET...SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE. BUT SEAS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
REACH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN TOMORROW WITH A SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WIND
AT AROUND 15 KT FOR A WHILE. HAVE PUT UP A SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS
FOR THIS REASON.

SOMEWHAT OF A CHANCE FOR THE SCA NEEDING TO BE EXTENDED OVER THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS FOR A LONGER PERIOD...OTHERWISE SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS...WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT WITH OCNL 20 KT GUSTS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY AND 5-10 KT AT NIGHT. WINDS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 KT DURING THE DAY TO 5 KT
OR LESS AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME STORMS. WITH A
RELATIVELY SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF THE STORMS ANTICIPATED...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR FLOODING OF URBANIZED AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS
LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY ON THE
SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AS BUILDING SEAS IN
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW INHIBIT WATER DRAINAGE. WILL LOOK AT THIS
IN FURTHER DETAIL OVERNIGHT...AND A STATEMENT OR ADVISORY MAY BE
FORTHCOMING LATER ON TO ADDRESS THIS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/GOODMAN/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1058 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

ANZ345-CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
180300-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
1058 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-350-353-355-180300-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1058 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.