Hail and Damaging Wind in Ohio, June 17, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
328 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE CWA FROM SOUTH OF FDY TO KNOX
COUNTY WHERE CIN HAS BEEN ELIMINATED. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
TOWARD THE LAKE WILL SHOULD KEEP THE EVENING TRANQUIL. WILL
INCLUDE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. HAVE
USED MAV POPS WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST PA. SPC'S SREF
CALIBRATED SEVERE PARAMETER IN THE LOW TO MODERATE VALUES SO WE CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
THE NAM APPEARS TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SUNDAY NIGHT
AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. HAVE USED MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WITH
SLIGHT CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO. AS THE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES
EAST...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEARLY STALLS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND CONTINUES TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THURSDAY.

BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDER REMAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY CLEAR UP
AND DRY OUT SATURDAY.

THE START OF SUMMER WILL BRING WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST NEXT WEEK. WITH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM...AND THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL CREEP UP EACH DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING OFF SLIGHTLY TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM TOL TO FDY TO MFD AND SOUTHWEST OF
THOSE LOCATIONS. DID MENTION TSRA FOR THOSE SITES. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH...IF ANY...CONVECTION DEVELOPS TOWARD CAK AND
YNG. SATELLITE SHOWING ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SUGGEST LOW PROBABILITY OF TSRA IN
CLE AND ERI. AS OF NOW...TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS TO
BE AROUND 19Z-20Z. WILL MONITOR SITUATION AND MAKE CHANGES IF
NECESSARY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BETWEEN BY 02Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. WARM FRONT
WILL SIT ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE OUT OF ONTARIO WILL HELP REINFORCE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
SUNDAY. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW STRONG IT COULD BE. FOR NOW
HAVE 3 FOOTERS ACROSS THE WEST WITH A NE FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS. A FEW
MORE DIFFERENCES ARISE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT AND WINDS COULD SHIFT AFTER THEIR PASSAGE...NE THROUGH NW.
WARM FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKE BY MIDWEEK BRINGING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...SCHULER
AVIATION...SCHULER
MARINE...OUDEMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
544 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-180945-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
544 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.