Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 17 to 18, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN ISSUE THIS EVENING IS WHEN/IF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. AREA IN
THE VICINITY OF KICT NEAR TRIPLE POINT IS THE MOST LIKELY IN THE
SHORT TERM...WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. NAM/RUC
TRIES TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS FLINT HILLS THIS EVENING
WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.
ALSO WATCHING CONVECTION ACROSS CO...WHICH COULD TRACK ALONG I-70
LATER TONIGHT. DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SAT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET IN
THE MORNING...BUT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE HUNG UP IN THE
VICINITY OF KICT-KCNU...AND WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...SHOULD SEE
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOP. -HOWERTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

SYNOPSIS:
A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A COUPLE OF DEEP DISTURBANCES
MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH MULTIPLE WEAKER DISTURBANCES
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A LOW IS
SITTING OVER NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IN THE WARM SECTOR.  70+ DEWPOINTS ARE MOVING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS HAS
KEPT SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...WHILE WHERE THE DEWPOINT HAS MIXED
OUT...BEHIND THE DRYLINE TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE LOW
100S.  THIS WARM SECTOR WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

TONIGHT:
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS KANSAS WHICH WILL BRING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...3000-4000 J/KG CAPE WITH 40-50 KTS BULK SHEAR OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE PLENTIFUL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE ONLY
NEGATIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT IS THE CAP FROM THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER.  THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THE CAP IS
WEAKENING...AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR 22-00Z IS EXPECTED.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE...BUT IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST STORMS INITIATE.  SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
COULD BE IN THE MIX OF THINGS EARLIER IN THE EVENT BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARD 06Z...THEN OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY:
DISTURBANCE AFTER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...HELPING
TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  THE FRONT
WILL BISECT SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...NEAR THE TURNPIKE FOR SATURDAY.
FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY AS THE CAP WEAKENS...AFTER 21Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE TRICKY PART WILL BE WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP...WITH A
POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS TONIGHT INTERACTING WITH IT.
THIS COULD IMPACT THE LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH THE BOUNDARY HANGING OUT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER NORTH OF IT IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE MID 90S AGAIN.

BY SUNDAY THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE WITH
WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED.  THE NAM KEEPS THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS...NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.  THIS
WILL IMPACT THE LOCATION OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON DRY...WITH POPS INTRODUCED
BEYOND 00Z/MON TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE STOUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE
BOUNDARY.

MONDAY - TUESDAY:
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD...WITH SOME
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE IN EXACT LOCATION.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THOSE DIFFERENCES THEY SHOW A TREND OF NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT.  THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SOAR AGAIN ON MONDAY.  A
DEEP TROUGH/STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND
WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE DAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL NOT BE OVERWHELMING...BUT WITH THE HELP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL FIRE.

THIS WAVE WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT OUT OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
EVENING.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND POSSIBLE
CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE COOLER 80S.

WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY:
BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND FEEL ANY
POTENTIAL WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL.  HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL SET UP
THURSDAY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER AND COULD BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FEATURE IS LOW...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S DURING THIS PERIOD...SLOWLY
INCREASING FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY.

BILLINGS

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA INTO TONIGHT.
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KS BY 00Z WHERE A DRYLINE SHOULD INTERSECT THE FRONT NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT/EARLY AM MCS MAY SET UP FROM SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI BY PEAK HEATING. WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES VERY
WARM...THINK CAP WILL HOLD INTO MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE
NAM AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY 00Z
ALONG/E OF THE KS TURNPIKE. A 35 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL BE NOSING INTO THAT AREA EAST OF THE TURNPIKE PROVIDING
INCREASED CONVERGENCE THIS EVENING. THINK A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME ALONG/E OF THE TURNPIKE. UTILIZING VCTS
AT ICT AND CNU. FURTHER NORTHWEST...RSL/SLN/HUT SHOULD BE ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT BY 00Z SO NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS AT
THOSE SITES. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT STALLS OVER SOUTHEAST
KS TONIGHT.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  90  70  97 /  30  20  40  10
HUTCHINSON      69  88  68  97 /  10  30  40  10
NEWTON          70  88  69  96 /  30  30  40  10
ELDORADO        71  90  69  95 /  30  20  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  94  71  98 /  30  20  30  10
RUSSELL         65  85  66  94 /  20  30  30  10
GREAT BEND      66  86  67  96 /  10  30  30  10
SALINA          68  86  68  94 /  20  30  30  10
MCPHERSON       69  87  68  96 /  10  30  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     74  93  72  93 /  30  20  30  10
CHANUTE         72  90  70  92 /  40  20  40  10
IOLA            72  89  69  91 /  40  20  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    73  91  72  93 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
416 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-182130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
416 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TODAY SHOULD EXCEED 100 DEGREES GENERALLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY MOVE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CAUSING SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100S OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BOTH DAYS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

BILLINGS/JMC/ADK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
753 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

KSZ051-180115-
MCPHERSON-
753 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MCPHERSON COUNTY...

AT 750 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 6
MILES SOUTH OF LINDSBORG...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF MCPHERSON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

HOWERTON