This Wednesday featured the first measurable snow of the 2011-2012 winter season within South Central Nebraska. Although various parts of the 24-county area picked up a light dusting from passing afternoon snow showers, only far southwest portions of the area in Furnas and southern Harlan Counties received wet, slushy accumulations as high as 2-3 inches earlier in the day from a concentrated,…
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
This Wednesday featured the first measurable snow of the 2011-2012 winter season within South Central Nebraska. Although various parts of the 24-county area picked up a light dusting from passing afternoon snow showers, only far southwest portions of the area in Furnas and southern Harlan Counties received wet, slushy accumulations as high as 2-3 inches earlier in the day from a concentrated, narrow snow band. Although most places within the primary snow band averaged less than 2 inches, a few of the highest measured amounts included 3 inches at both Beaver City and Orleans, and 2.7 inches at Cambridge. In contrast, locations just outside this primary snow band saw no more than flurries up to several tenths of an inch.
Timing-wise, most of this snow fell during a five-hour window between 6 AM and 11 AM CST, with the primary mid-upper level forcing mechanism consisting of frontogenesis near 700 millibars, focused within the entrance region of a strong upper level jet streak centered from Iowa across the Great Lakes. With temperatures already the following day climbing into the low-mid 50s, the snow from this early-season event did not hang around long.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 15, 11:34 PM CST, 1 hour 26 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1134 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011 .AVIATION...06Z TAF. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. COULD SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATION. CLOUD COVER DECREASES DURING THE EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES. A WAVE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST OF THE EFFECTS FROM IT HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE 15.12Z NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE IN THE H85-7 LAYER LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM/GFS AND LATEST NCEP 4KM WRF DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. WILL ALSO BRING IN A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE ODDS OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE LOOK FAIRLY LOW PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...NAM PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY SHOULD WARM ENOUGH DURING THE PRECIPITATION TO CAUSE A CHANGE TO RAIN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED. CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY HELP HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. BY AND LARGE...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY...AND THAT COULD EASILY BE DELAYED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. OTHER THAN A STOUT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY...THE CWA STILL APPEARS TO LIE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LARGELY AVOID A MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION THREAT THIS WEEKEND. STARTING OFF THE PERIOD AT 00Z THURSDAY...OR WEDNESDAY EVENING...12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING A 500MB POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS/VORT MAX CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...BUT QUICKLY DEPARTING TO ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER BY 06Z. SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE COVERS THE RISK OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES PRIOR TO 00Z...AND WILL LEAVE THIS MENTION OUT OF THE EVENING PERIOD FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL AND EVEN THE 12Z EMC 4KM WRF- NMM SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER FOR A SHORT TIME IN THE EVENING MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS FOR EXPANDING ANYTHING BEYOND 00Z. OTHERWISE...FOR SURE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL BE QUIET BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...WITH BREEZES TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THIS WIND SHIFT...PRESENCE OF PASSING SURFACE RIDGE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE AN EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT DROP OFF IN TEMPS...AND LOWERED LOWS 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...NOW AROUND 20 MOST AREAS. THURSDAY/THURS NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS QUASI-ZONAL AS DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ZIPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE NEXT WAVE SETTLES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP QUITE NOTABLY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS EASILY 20-25 MPH AND SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. STILL LOOKS TO FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVELS THOUGH. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED COLD START...WILL COUNT ON LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO GIVE DAYTIME HIGHS A BOOST AND KEPT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST NEAR 50. WITH SOUTHWEST BREEZES STAYING UP A BIT MOST AREAS...WAS HESITANT TO DROP LOWS TOO MUCH THURS NIGHT...BUT STILL ENDED UP LOWERING 3-5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO GET CLOSER TO MET/MAV GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...WHILE STILL REMAINING 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS CONSENSUS...WHICH JUST LOOKS TOO COLD GIVEN THE BREEZES. FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...THE WESTERN CONUS SHORTWAVE STEADILY RIDES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...INDUCING AT LEAST MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS EVEN RISING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT. WHILE A DECENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT FRI NIGHT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THE ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIP WITHIN THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE MAINLY IN THE NORTH/EAST AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. EVEN SO...THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR DRIZZLE SHOULD FOCUS EAST OF THE AREA...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT ALL MENTION OF PRECIP GIVEN THIS IS STILL SEVERAL NIGHTS AWAY. LOWS FRI NIGHT SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE 30S NORTHWEST...AND MID TO MAYBE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...THIS CONTINUES TO BE AN INTERESTING PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM YESTERDAY...AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DIRECT THE PATH OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NEB AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A HEALTHY MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ACROSS ALL BUT MAYBE THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...AND THUS THE MUCH GREATER CHANCES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN NEB. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A BUFFER 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND ALSO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT SOME DRIZZLE COULD PERSIST INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL. FOR MOST OF THE CWA...THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CLEAR ALL COUNTIES AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST STILL PROBABLY DOESN/T CAPTURE THE STRENGTH OF FRONTAL PASSAGE SUFFICIENTLY...ESPECIALLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR HIGH TEMPS KEPT A LARGE GRADIENT INTACT...RANGING FROM LOW 40S FAR NORTH TO LOW 60S FAR SOUTHEAST...AND COULD VERY WELL SEE STEADY/FALLING TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS...AND POSSIBLY NOT LOW ENOUGH. FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...A DRY FORECAST PREVAILS AS QUASI ZONAL/SLIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO LOW 40S SOUTH...REBOUNDING TO MID 40S MOST AREAS BY MONDAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MON NIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MAYBE UP INTO KS...BUT AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS THIS SHOULD HOLD SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. FINALLY FOR TUESDAY...ALLBLEND MODEL CONSENSUS PAINTED 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE CWA...HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH...AND DECIDED NOT TO STRAY FAR FROM THIS ALTHOUGH EARLY SIGNS ARE THAT MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY TARGET SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES INTO KS/OK. WITH HIGH TEMPS AIMED WELL INTO THE 40S...THIS LOOKS TO BE A RAIN EVENT. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 500 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 161200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 500 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE)
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall totals of 2 to 3 inches were reported mainly across western and southern portions of the county.
Snowfall totals of 2 to 3 inches were reported mainly across southern portions of the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, November 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 353453, 353454.