A strong westerly flow aloft produced strong surface winds across portions of North Central Montana. Wind gusts in excess of 60 mph were reported.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.
A strong westerly flow aloft produced strong surface winds across portions of North Central Montana. Wind gusts in excess of 60 mph were reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 16, 9:27 PM MST, 3 hours 41 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 927 PM MST WED NOV 16 2011 .UPDATE... HAVE ALREADY UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS/ZONE FORECASTS...WILL UPDATE STATE FORECASTS SHORTLY. MAIN UPDATE NEEDED TONIGHT WAS TO LOWER TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES. THINNING OF THE CLOUDINESS...A SOMEWHAT SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS...AND CONTINUED VERY LOW DEWPOINTS HAVE ALL CONTRIBUTED TO TEMPERATURES COOLING OF SOMEWHAT RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. A FEW PLACES (SUCH AS LEWISTOWN) HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR FORECAST LOWS. HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES. AM STILL ANTICIPATING WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD LAYER...SO AM SOMEWHAT EXPECTING THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES RISING LATER TONIGHT AS THE WINDS INCREASE. ALSO INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA WHERE GUSTS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO INCREASE. WILL ALSO ALLOW THE HIGHLIGHTS THAT ARE OUT TO CONTINUE AS IS. I SEE NO NEED TO ADJUST THEM AT THIS POINT. COULSTON && .AVIATION... UPDATED 2342Z. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES EAST. WINDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND LEE SLOPES WILL GUST TO 70 KTS AT TIMES AND LOCAL GUSTS OVER 50KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY MIDNIGHT AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. IFR CONDS AND OBSCD TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM MST WED NOV 16 2011/ THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR VERY ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE FAIR SKIES TODAY STILL COVERS MUCH OF THE STATE BUT WILL MOVE INTO ERN MT TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WINTER CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTN/EVE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MT WILL SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND STEADILY INCREASE. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF GUSTY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS ALONG/NORTH OF A HELENA TO LEWISTOWN LINE...THUS HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND HILINE COUNTIES TO A WARNING. WITH SNOW AND WIND ARRIVING ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HAVE ALSO UPGRADED THAT AREA TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. AS THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS PUSHES EAST OF THE ROCKIES THURS AFTN...RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY EVE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THOUGH THE HIGHWOODS AND LITTLE BELT MTNS COULD SEE HEAVIER TERRAIN-ENHANCED SNOWFALL WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...LEADING TO A NEW WINTER STORM WARNING THERE FOR THURS AFTN THRU FRI. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPS STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM ALBERTA EARLY FRI...BRINGING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR MOVES SOUTH IT WILL ENCOUNTER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST MT...SETTING UP GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL THERE ON FRI/SAT...LEADING TO A NEW WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 5500 FT. LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND BOZEMAN/ENNIS/THREE FORKS COULD SEE ADVISORY- LEVEL (3-5 INCHES) SNOWFALL AT THAT TIME. AFTER HIGHS IN THE LOW /MID-40S TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES TURN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING ONLY INTO THE MID-TEENS OVER THE HILINE AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON FRI UNTIL THE FRONT REACHES THEM AROUND MIDDAY. WARANAUSKAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND ALSO THE ASSOCIATED SNOW. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY DECIDED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ALONE FOR THIS PARTICULAR PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER EVEN MORE WITH DETAILS OF SEVERAL MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER CHANCES OF SNOW IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. DO NOTE THAT THE GEM (CANADIAN) MODEL IS MUCH WETTER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY PERIOD BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN OUTLIER. THEREAFTER THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY. MODELS DO NOT INDICATE A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND IT APPEARS THE ONLY THREAT FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TOWARDS MIDWEEK SO INCREASED THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA. INHERITED WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS ON TRACK AND COULD POSSIBLY SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE WARMING TREND WILL BE AIDED BY INCREASED DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER THE PLAINS. BLANK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 24 43 13 18 / 10 20 20 70 CTB 18 41 6 16 / 10 20 20 40 HLN 13 42 19 23 / 20 40 20 70 BZN 13 45 21 29 / 20 50 60 70 WEY 3 31 20 27 / 50 80 90 80 DLN 13 40 20 32 / 20 50 70 70 HVR 10 45 11 22 / 10 40 10 20 LWT 11 43 15 20 / 10 20 20 50 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM MST THURSDAY BLAINE... CASCADE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK...CHOUTEAU... EASTERN GLACIER...EASTERN PONDERA...EASTERN TETON...FERGUS... HILL...JUDITH BASIN...LIBERTY...TOOLE. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON MST SATURDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR CASCADE...JUDITH BASIN...MEAGHER. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR BROADWATER...FERGUS... GALLATIN...MADISON. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. && SHORT TERM...WARANAUSKAS/COULSTON LONG TERM...BLANK AVIATION...ZELZER WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 539 PM MST WED NOV 16 2011 MTZ009-048-171400- NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT- 539 PM MST WED NOV 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 PM MST THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS COLDER CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ANY SPOTTER REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS OR SNOW TOTALS WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MTZ012-050-171400- CASCADE-JUDITH BASIN- 539 PM MST WED NOV 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY FROM 6 AM MST UNTIL 10 PM MST. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MST THURSDAY THROUGH NOON MST SATURDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER THURSDAY AS COLDER CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ANY SPOTTER REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS OR SNOW TOTALS WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MTZ010-011-013-044>047-049-171400- EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-CHOUTEAU-TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA- BLAINE-EASTERN TETON- 539 PM MST WED NOV 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY FROM 6 AM MST UNTIL 10 PM MST. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS COLDER CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ANY SPOTTER REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS OR SNOW TOTALS WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MTZ051-171400- FERGUS- 539 PM MST WED NOV 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY FROM 6 AM MST UNTIL 10 PM MST. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER THURSDAY AS COLDER CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ANY SPOTTER REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS OR SNOW TOTALS WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MTZ054-171400- MEAGHER- 539 PM MST WED NOV 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MST THURSDAY THROUGH NOON MST SATURDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER THURSDAY AS COLDER CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ANY SPOTTER REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS OR SNOW TOTALS WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MTZ014-171400- CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK- 539 PM MST WED NOV 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY FROM 6 AM MST UNTIL 10 PM MST. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS COLDER CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ANY SPOTTER REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS OR SNOW TOTALS WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MTZ015-052-053-055-171400- MADISON-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-GALLATIN- 539 PM MST WED NOV 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER THURSDAY AS COLDER CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ANY SPOTTER REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS OR SNOW TOTALS WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MTZ008-171400- BEAVERHEAD- 539 PM MST WED NOV 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ANY SPOTTER REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS OR SNOW TOTALS WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
5 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Sustained wind speeds of 48 mph were reported for more than an hour at McAllister 4NNE (the Norris Hill DOT site).
Sustained wind speeds of 43 mph were reported for more than an hour at the Cut Bank ASOS site.
A wind gust to 58 mph was reported at Inverness 2E (the Inverness DOT site).
A wind gust to 66 mph was reported at Chinook 11S.
A wind gust to 67 mph was reported at Hilger 7SE (the Judith Peak RAWS site - elevation 6428 feet).
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, November 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 352203, 352208, 352202, 352204, 352206.