Dense Fog in Montana, June 20, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
958 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE SKY COVER AND REDUCE POPS
FURTHER ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER. THINGS ARE STARTING LOOK PROMISING FOR A PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER THIS UP COMING WEEK. MONDAY IS STARTING TO LOOK A LOT
DRIER...AS MODELS HAVE PUSHED THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING INTO
EASTERN MONTANA AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN DRY
WEATHER UNTIL THAT POINT. RSMITH

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLOUD SHIELD THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN
PREVENTING FULL DAYTIME HEATING AND THEREFORE LENGTHENING THE
INITIATION TIMES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LATER
THIS EVENING. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN ARE STILL ACROSS EASTERN
SECTION OF THE CWA WHERE BEST LIFT IS LOCATED. BULK OF JET ENERGY
AND LIFT HAS ALSO SLOWLY SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
AREA WITH ONLY 200 TO 1200 J/KG CAPE LEFT AVAILABLE. LARGE SCALE
TROUGH ORIENTED FROM UTAH TO CENTRAL MONTANA WILL ALSO VERY SLOWLY
MOVE EAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START AT A SPREAD OF 10 TO
13*C OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... NORTHEASTERN MONTANA IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH EXITING THE AREA.
THIS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW MORE SUNLIGHT
TO FILTER INTO THE AREA AND RAISE 850MB TEMPS UP TO A RANGE OF
12*C TO 19*C. THAT WILL IN TURN WARM THE SURFACE INTO HIGHS AROUND
THE MID 70S BY TUESDAY AND GIVE THE REGION A SMALL REPRIEVE TO DRY
OUT. GAH

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

THE RIDGE HOLDS IN UNTIL LATE ON THURSDAY WHEN A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS TREND WILL HOLD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S. PROTON/EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT LIMITED TO AREAS
NEAR THE ND BORDER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE...BUT DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM KOLF EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND CONVERGES NEAR SFC TROUGH ANGLING
NORTHWEST FROM PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY RISE. CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTN...ESP NEAR KGDV AND KSDY. MOYER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MILK RIVER FROM NEAR HINSDALE THROUGH
NASHUA. FLUCTUATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RIVER LEVELS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINS MOVES INTO AND DOWN THE RIVER.
HIGH WATER ALSO WILL CONTINUE ON STREAMS FEEDING INTO THE MILK
RIVER FROM THE SOUTH INCLUDING PEOPLES CREEK...BEAVER CREEK AND
WILLOW CREEK. TRIPLE CREEK RESERVOIR IN S VALLEY COUNTY IS IN
DANGER OF FAILING...WHICH EMPTIES INTO LONE TREE CREEK...THEN INTO
WILLOW CREEK.

FLOODING ALSO CONTINUES ALONG THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER AND MANY
CREEKS ACROSS PETROLEUM COUNTY.

WATER RELEASES WILL CONTINUE FROM FORT PECK DAM AT AROUND 65K
CFS. THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM BELOW THE DAM TO THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH DUE TO THESE RELEASES COMBINED
WITH THE WATER FLOWING FROM THE MILK RIVER. LITTLE CHANGE IN
RIVER LEVEL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF ONE TO THREE INCHES HAS OCCURRED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN HIGH WATER
ALONG ROCK CREEK...THE POPLAR RIVER AND BIG MUDDY CREEK...AS WELL
AS OTHER SMALLER CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN...SOMETIMES LOCALLY HEAVY...THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WITH
WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY HEAVY RAIN STORMS THAT DEVELOP. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SHERIDAN...
RICHLAND...DAWSON...WIBAUX...EASTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
605 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2011

MTZ019-024-025-027-062-210015-
SHERIDAN-RICHLAND-DAWSON-WIBAUX-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
605 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON MONDAY. STRONG...
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT.

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE MISSOURI RIVERS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SMALL STREAMS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR MANY OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ016>018-020>023-026-059>061-210015-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-PRAIRIE-
NORTHERN PHILLIPS-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-
605 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR FOR THE MILK AND MISSOURI RIVERS
FROM TAMPICO EAST TO THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. FLOOD WARNING ARE
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MANY SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA. SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MOYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
800 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ESE SAINT PHILLIP     46.81N 104.06W
06/19/2011  M3.00 INCH       WIBAUX             MT   PUBLIC

            THREE INCHES OF RAIN IN 45 MINUTES

&&

RSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
927 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 NNW WIBAUX           47.11N 104.30W
06/19/2011                   WIBAUX             MT   PUBLIC

            WHEN PERSON ARRIVED AT HOME THE CREEK AROUND HIS HOUSE
            WAS OUT OF IT BANKS AND WATER WAS RUNNING DOWN THE HILLS
            AND THROUGH HIS YARD. AN HOUR LATER WATER WAS STILL
            RUNNING THROUGH THE YARD. HAD 1.10 INCHES OF RAINFALL
            FROM THIS STORM.

&&

RSMITH