Flood and Hail in Kansas, June 20, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
231 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN: SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

TONIGHT:
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF DRYLINE WITH MLCAPES OF 2,500-4,000 J/KG. PACIFIC FRONT
SHOULD BE CATCHING UP TO THE DRYLINE ALONG THE I-135 CORRIDOR
TOWARD 4PM-5PM. MID-LEVEL COOLING CATCHING UP TO THE FRONT/DRYLINE
AND DECENT THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE DRYLINE/FRONT.
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MAINLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT WITH A SLIGHTLY GREATER ANGLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THEREFORE WE EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN AN AXIS
ROUGHLY ALONG OR JUST EAST OF I-135 BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THIS
STORM ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY CONGEALING INTO A BROKEN-SOLID QUASI-
LINEAR BAND...TRANSLATING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS
AND SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS BAND
OF STORMS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY THIS
EVENING IN SOUTHEAST KS AS LCL HEIGHTS LOWER...SO THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO THERE. THE BULK OF THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF
SOUTHEASTERN KS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 850 FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VEERS OUT. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY REASONABLE WITH LITTLE ADJUSTMENT
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
LINGERING SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES OUT TUESDAY EVENING...AND IN THE
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AREA OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...LINGERING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STRONG STORM SYSTEM. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 3 DAY PERIOD.

FRIDAY-MONDAY:
UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES INTO THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE FASTER WESTERLIES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN STATES.
THIS WILL LEAVE OUR AREA IN A MAINLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. THE RESULTANT LEE
TROUGHING WILL DRAW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT LEAST LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO
THE FORECAST INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RELATIVELY HIGHER
PROBABILITIES IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES GIVEN THE NW-SE ORIENTED
MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REMAINS CONVECTION. DRYLINE HAS MADE IT TO
K9K7 TO P28. WINDS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ARE 18030G40KTS...WEST OF
IT THEY ARE 24020G30KTS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE BETWEEN
21Z AND 22Z. THIS WILL AFFECT KCNU LATER THIS EVENING BY 6 TO 8
PM. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER KICT...KHUT...AND
KSLN WILL GET INTO ANY OF THE ACTIVITY. LOOKS LIKE NOW THEY MAY
DEVELOP JUST ALONG OR EAST OF THOSE SITES.

THE STORMS SHOULD EXIT KANSAS BY 5Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT IN THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  85  61  88 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  84  60  89 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          64  83  60  86 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        63  83  59  86 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  87  62  90 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELL         59  81  58  86 /  30  20  20   0
GREAT BEND      60  82  57  88 /  20  10  10   0
SALINA          63  82  60  85 /  30  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       63  83  60  86 /  30  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  87  64  87 /  70  20  20  10
CHANUTE         67  85  61  84 /  70  20  20  10
IOLA            67  85  61  83 /  70  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  85  61  86 /  70  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ050>053-067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1119 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-211630-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1119 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 135. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS AFTER 2 PM. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 80 MPH. A FEW BRIEF
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. SEE THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE AREA LOOKS TO GET BACK INTO A PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR DAILY
STORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. STRONG STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 135.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
307 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

KSZ049-202030-
SALINE-
307 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SALINE COUNTY...

AT 306 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
NEAR MARQUETTE...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SALINA...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

COOK