Low surface pressure tracking across North-Central Montana and strong westerly winds aloft combine to create high winds across the area. Wind gusts to 69 mph were reported.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.
Low surface pressure tracking across North-Central Montana and strong westerly winds aloft combine to create high winds across the area. Wind gusts to 69 mph were reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 16, 4:18 AM MST, 42 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 418 AM MST SUN JAN 16 2011 .DISCUSSION... TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCES OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS OF WHEN AND WHERE THEY FORECAST PRECIPITATION WHICH MAKES FORECASTS OF THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DIFFICULT. WHERE MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE WARMER AIR FROM WEST OF CUT BANK TO NEAR GREAT FALLS AND LEWISTOWN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SPREADING NORTHEAST TODAY. AHEAD OF THE WARM AIR THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN. SHOULD FREEZING RAIN DEVELOP THINK THAT AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT LAST VERY LONG SO DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR EAST THE WARM AIR WILL GO TODAY. THINK WARM AIR WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES SO HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. ALSO FOR TODAY HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING. MODELS DEVELOP STRONG WINDS TO A LITTLE ABOVE THE PLAINS. NOT SURE IF THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE BUT THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A THREAT OF THIS HAPPENING TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING. ALSO BASED ON SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GALLATIN COUNTY...MAINLY FOR THE WEST YELLOWSTONE AREA. THIS ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. TURNING BACK TO SURFACE FORECASTS..EXPECT THE COLD AIRMASS TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND END UP BY EARLY MONDAY SOUTH OF A GREAT FALLS TO LEWISTOWN LINE. SOUTHWEST MONTANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MILDER AIRMASS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT SEPARATING THE TWO AIR MASSES. BLANK TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO MOST OF THE TFX CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF A CUT BANK-TO-LEWISTOWN LINE...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA SPREADS COLD CANADIAN AIR AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS SOUTH THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THE SNOW WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS A STEADY PROGRESSION OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITH SOMEWHAT LESS MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE COLD AND WARM AIRMASSES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TFX CWA DURING THIS TIME. THE RESULTING DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. OVERALL...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS AND IN THE VALLEYS. WENT WITH THIS MORE BROAD-BRUSHED APPROACH BECAUSE THESE SHORTWAVES ARE FAIRLY FAST-MOVING...MAKING TIMING OF ANY PARTICULAR PRECIPITATION EVENT DIFFICULT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHIFT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN STEADILY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. COULSTON && .AVIATION... UPDATED 0545Z. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT EASTWARD AS THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS...WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MONTANA-CANADA BORDER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MASS OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH AREAS/WIDESPREAD MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER 00Z MONDAY THE ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MPJ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 47 19 19 17 / 30 40 50 50 CTB 45 8 9 5 / 30 40 40 40 HLN 48 33 45 24 / 60 30 30 30 BZN 47 34 45 21 / 70 40 40 40 WEY 36 28 34 13 / 90 80 60 60 DLN 44 34 41 23 / 60 30 30 30 HVR 26 3 5 -2 / 40 50 50 50 LWT 45 20 21 15 / 60 50 50 60 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY CASCADE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK...EASTERN GLACIER...EASTERN PONDERA... EASTERN TETON...JUDITH BASIN...MEAGHER...NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY SOUTHERN GALLATIN. && SHORT TERM...BLANK LONG TERM...COULSTON AVIATION...COULSTON WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 616 AM MST SAT JAN 15 2011 MTZ009-010-012-014-046-048>050-054-161300- NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-CASCADE- CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-EASTERN PONDERA- SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-MEAGHER- 616 AM MST SAT JAN 15 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...THE ADJACENT PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND IMPACTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS. MTZ008-011-013-015-044-045-047-051>053-055-161300- BEAVERHEAD-HILL-CHOUTEAU-MADISON-TOOLE-LIBERTY-BLAINE-FERGUS- JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-GALLATIN- 616 AM MST SAT JAN 15 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND IMPACTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS.
6 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A wind gust to 69 mph was reported at East Glacier Park 8SE (the Deep Creek RAWS site).
A wind gust to 61 mph was reported at the Dellwo RAWS MSCS site.
A wind gust to 71 mph was reported at the Choteau airport.
A wind gust to 60 mph was reported at Cascade.
A wind gust to 59 mph was reported at the Helena ASOS site.
A wind gust to 61 mph was reported at Winston 1W.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, January 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 273690, 273694, 273695, 273692, 273696, 273697.