High Wind in Montana, December 17, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
440 AM MST SAT DEC 17 2011

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT RATHER BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION TODAY. A BRISK WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESIDE ALOFT.
THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT FROM
NOON TODAY UNTIL NOON ON SUNDAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THE SOUTHWEST WILL COOL OFF...WHILE A SLIGHT
BREEZE WILL KEEP NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA MILD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR
SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BY MID
DAY...AND THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW LOOK TO BE OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MONTANA.
HOWEVER...THIS EVENT STILL LOOKS LIKE A LOW SNOWFALL EVENT. MAYBE
AN INCH OR SO IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF
INCH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY MONDAY. FOR MONDAY...EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS THE REGION. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE ZONES UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO THE AREA BUT IT WILL DEEPEN THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS...AND BRING
BREEZY...GUSTY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE OVER THE WEST COAST AND MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
TROF WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BUT...DUE TO THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW TWO INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE AIRMASS WILL WARM AND DRY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT AND CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD
OF BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LOW...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
AGAIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY THROUGH
SUNDAY HOWEVER STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE BRISK AND GUSTY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OF 30
TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS WILL ALSO BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY
BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  38  46  22 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  49  34  40  16 /   0   0  30  30
HLN  50  21  43  20 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  45  15  44  13 /   0   0  10  30
WEY  30   3  30   6 /   0   0  10  20
DLN  43  20  42  15 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  50  31  44  16 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  50  31  45  17 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MST SUNDAY NORTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
500 AM MST SAT DEC 17 2011

MTZ009-048-181200-
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
500 AM MST SAT DEC 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MTZ008-010>015-044>047-049>055-181200-
BEAVERHEAD-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-TOOLE-LIBERTY-
EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
500 AM MST SAT DEC 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1151 PM MST FRI DEC 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK  48.37N 113.10W
12/16/2011  M74 MPH          GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            74 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

&&

BRUSDA