Alaska, 2011

Blizzard and High Wind in Alaska, December 17 to 18, 2011

December 17 to 18, 2011 · NWS AFC · 5 events in 4 counties and zones

An intense storm brought high wind to the south central region of Alaska and Prince William Sound. Along with the high wind, snow and blowing snow in Portage Valley and Thompson Pass produced blizzard conditions.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$500,000
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.

An intense storm brought high wind to the south central region of Alaska and Prince William Sound. Along with the high wind, snow and blowing snow in Portage Valley and Thompson Pass produced blizzard conditions. The peak wind along the Anchorage Hillside was 14 mph at Glenn Alps. Two roofs were partially blown off in Bear Valley frim the high wind.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 17, 2:00 PM AKST, 6 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 17, 2:00 PM AKST, 6 hours before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SAT DEC 17 2011

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A BROAD TROUGH
PERSISTING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD FROM ONE DOMINANT LOW TO THE NEXT. THE ANCHOR FOR
THIS BROAD CIRCULATION HAS BEEN A 965 MB LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING
SEA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH MULTIPLE WAVES ROTATING AROUND
ITS PERIPHERY. WE ARE NOW SEEING ANOTHER MAJOR STORM DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN INLAND AND REPLACE THE ANCHOR LOW
IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS THREE
DISTINCT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE
FIRST MOVED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA EARLIER THIS
MORNING...BRINGING THE REGION SOME SHOWERS WITH EXCEPTION OF SOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE SECOND WAVE
HAS A BIT MORE OF A PUNCH TO IT. THIS WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE THIRD
WAVE IS THE ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL QUICKLY BECOME
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER ACROSS OUR DOMAIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS FAST
PACED PATTERN. THE ECMWF ONCE AGAIN VERIFIED BEST OFF THE 18Z IR
SATELLITE. THE CHALLENGE IS THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM BELOW THE MASSIVE
SHIELD OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. WE ARE CONTINUING
TO FOLLOW THE VERY CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION THIS MORNING. THE NAM
AND GFS CONTINUE TO DO THEIR OWN THING WHILE OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS...THE GEM AND THE UKMET...SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE ECMWF ADDING TO OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE CHALLENGES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL
BE THE 958 MB LOW DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK OVERNIGHT AND
MOVING TOWARD KAMISHAK BAY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE LOW THAT IMPACTED
SOUTHCENTRAL LAST WEEKEND...BUT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A
DANGEROUS STORM. THE REAL DIFFICULTY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
CHINOOK WIND EVENT IN ANCHORAGE. SO FAR TODAY...GUSTY WINDS THAT
NORMALLY REMAIN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE HAVING NO PROBLEM
REACHING THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF ANCHORAGE. THE 12Z SOUNDING
DEPICTS A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH ABOUT 7000
FT...AND ONLY A WEAK INVERSION AT THAT LEVEL. THERE IS NO STRONG
INVERSION TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT ACTS AS A BARRIER
AGAINST THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS COMING OFF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS...THE GRADIENT WILL DRAG THE WINDS SOUTH DOWN THE
INLET OVERNIGHT BUT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
MID MORNING ON SUNDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS TO MAKE
IT ACROSS TOWN AGAIN. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT WARNING LEVEL
WINDS AROUND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AFTER THE 12Z
SOUNDING SUNDAY MORNING IF CONDITIONS ARE NOT DEVELOPING AS THEY
SHOULD. STAY TUNED FOR ANOTHER SUNDAY FULL OF WILD WEATHER.

OTHER POTENTIAL HAZARDS WITH THIS STORM INCLUDE A BLIZZARD THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
INCLUDING THE CORDOVA AREA AND PORTAGE VALLEY. IT SEEMS THAT IT WILL
BE TOO WARM FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AROUND THE KENAI PENINSULA
ALTHOUGH THE INTERIOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING TURNAGAIN PASS
COULD STAY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN OR SNOW. IT SEEMS THAT THE COLD AIR WILL NOT
ARRIVE QUICK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE HEAVY SNOW THAT WE SAW LAST WEEK.
ALSO...THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING MUCH QUICKER THANKS TO ANOTHER RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING SYSTEM LINING UP OVER BRISTOL BAY MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ANCHOR LOW AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION. THE 958 MB LOW WILL
GIVE THE AREA ANOTHER SHOT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS MIXED IN. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE...WELL INTO THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE. IT APPEARS THE BEST SHOT OF
SNOW WILL BE OVER UNPOPULATED AREAS INCLUDING THE AHKLUN AND KILBUCK
MOUNTAINS. NO ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT
THAT MAY CHANGE AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD DEVELOPS AND THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE BECOMES MORE OBVIOUS. RAIN AND SNOW CHANGES TO ALL
SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES BRISTOL BAY.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL BE MUCH WEAKER BUT WILL FOLLOW A VERY SIMILAR PATH
SO AGAIN EXPECTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE REGION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
AMAZINGLY...THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS ARE THE CALMEST OF OUR
ENTIRE DOMAIN...RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE. THE LOWS THAT ARE
DEVELOPING ARE MOVING SOUTH OF THE CHAIN AND APPROACHING THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
SECTIONS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE EXTENDED MODELS THAT
COLD AIR WILL FINALLY START SPILLING BACK ACROSS THE BERING SEA BY
THE END OF THIS NEXT WEEK...BRINGING AN END TO THIS VERY WARM AND
ACTIVE PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 101 135
         BLIZZARD WARNING 131
MARINE...STORM WARNING...120 130 132 138 150
         GALE WARNING...125 129 140 141 155 160 165 170 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB DEC 11

Event by event

3 high wind, 2 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek

When
December 17, 8:00 PM AKST to December 18, 6:30 AM AKST
Where
Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek forecast zone
Measured
90 kt (104 mph) measured gust
Property damage
$500,000
Reported by
Official NWS Observations

Once again the strong winds caused significant utility outages across the Anchorage area. Chugach Electric incurred nearly $500,000 in costs to restore and repair utilities damaged from the high wind.

Blizzard, Nern P.W. Snd

When
December 17, 9:00 PM AKST to December 18, 4:00 PM AKST
Where
Nern P.W. Snd forecast zone
Reported by
Department of Highways

High Wind, Wrn P.W. Snd & Kenai Mtns

When
December 18, 4:50 AM AKST to 10:00 AM AKST
Where
Wrn P.W. Snd & Kenai Mtns forecast zone
Measured
87 kt (100 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Department of Highways

Blizzard, Wrn P.W. Snd & Kenai Mtns

When
December 18, 7:00 AM AKST to 10:00 AM AKST
Where
Wrn P.W. Snd & Kenai Mtns forecast zone
Reported by
AWOS

High Wind, Sern P.W. Snd

When
December 18, 11:45 AM AKST to 12:30 PM AKST
Where
Sern P.W. Snd forecast zone
Measured
79 kt (91 mph) measured gust
Reported by
C-MAN Station

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
Blizzard
Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or more with falling or blowing snow that cuts visibility below a quarter mile for three hours or longer.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Alaska in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, December 2011

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 351822, 351825, 351824, 351827, 351823.