A low pressure system, deepened over central Missouri, during the predawn hours of|November 9, 2011. Rain mixed with and then turned to the first snow of the season,|across areas along and north of Highway 36.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
A low pressure system, deepened over central Missouri, during the predawn hours of|November 9, 2011. Rain mixed with and then turned to the first snow of the season,|across areas along and north of Highway 36. Snowfall amounts ranged from a half to|three inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 8, 11:49 PM CST, 11 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1149 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Owing to the mesoscale nature to the effects of dynamic cooling to the deformation precipitation shield the models have underforecast the amount of cooling in the column down to the surface. NAM/RUC are running about 2F too warm where snow is occurring within a narrow band inside the deformation zone. The rain/snow and snow band is quite narrow...around 30 miles at this time...and is bordered by rain on either side making it difficult to model. Since snow is accumulating as far back as south central KS have expanded the rain/snow area to the south as well as increase snow amounts over nw MO. Snow will accumulate mainly on grassy surfaces but slush on secondary roads closer to the IA/MO border seems probable. MJ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /740 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011/ Have added isolated thunderstorms to parts of nw/west central MO and east central KS in region of elevated instability. Lightning network has shown a handful of cg strikes early this evening. Also made adjustments for earlier rain/snow transition over nw MO as dynamic cooling has resulted in not only the above noted lightning but moderate cooling of temperatures down to the surface over sw IA/nw MO/se NE and ne KS during the past hour or so. Have received a couple reports of rain/snow mix in Atchison county as well as extreme sw IA. MJ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /345 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2011/ Surface low near Tulsa will track to near Joplin by 00Z, and to between Quincy and St. Louis by 06Z. Large dry slot has moved into much of central and western Missouri and southeast Kansas, with these areas caught in between a developing LLJ over the Ozarks and intensifying frontogenesis/deformation over northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. The latter area will continue to be the main show tonight as the surface low tracks to the east. However, there may still be some additional development within the dry slot as low level warm air advection intensifies through early evening, which will likely lead to increasing areas of drizzle and possibly some developing areas of rain. This activity will taper off after 03Z as the surface low tracks east and low level cold air advection sets in. To the northwest, developing band of frontogenesis will continue to produce a widespread swath of rain from north central Kansas into southern Iowa, affecting areas mainly northwest of a St. Joseph to Bethany line. This area of lift is expected to stay relatively stationary through much of the evening, and cloud result in up to an additional inch of rainfall for these areas. As the surface low deepens and tracks into Illinois overnight, cold air will begin to wrap into this system, and models still suggest a marginal thermal profile for a rain/snow mix developing late this evening across the northwest tip of Missouri, and spreading into central Missouri through early morning. NAM suggests boundary layer wetbulb temperatures will drop to near freezing across a large portion of northern Missouri overnight which results in accumulation of 1 to 3 inches, but this is likely an exaggerated effect of dynamic cooling within the model. Still, thermal profiles should support a mixture of rain and snow developing across areas north of Highway 36 overnight. Both NAM and RUC indicate a modest layer of low static stability coincident with the best frontogenetical forcing that could enhance precip rates, and could result in enough dynamic cooling to boost the transition over to snow. Altogether, warm ground and marginal thermal profiles should keep it difficult for any snow to accumulate tonight, though wouldn't be surprised to see a few areas northwest of St Joseph see an inch or so, especially if any banding can develop. This system will be quick to lift to the northeast on Wednesday with a fast clearing trend during the morning. High pressure building in from the west will maintain clear skies and slightly below average temps through Thursday night. Hawblitzel Friday - Tuesday: A broad ridge will prevail for the last half of the work week and through much of the weekend resulting in dry conditions and warming temperatures, relative to the early/mid week time frame, through Sunday. The forecast then becomes much less confident as medium range models diverge significantly in their upper pattern depiction. The GFS is much faster moving a northern stream wave across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and slower with a southern stream wave, keeping it back across northwestern Mexico through Monday afternoon. The ECMWF, in contrast, is slower with the northern stream wave and faster with the wave coming out of the southwest. This results in a very large 500mb height standard deviation across the lower Missouri Valley and gives little confidence to deviating much from the previous forecast/forecast initialization. So the forecast continues to depict the next best chance for precipitation from Sunday night into Monday as a frontal boundary may stall in the area. Depending on the timing of the southern stream wave this boundary may be a focus for renewed rainfall as the upper wave moves east eventually moving the front way with it and drying us out sometime Monday night into Tuesday. CDB && .AVIATION... For the 06Z TAFs...Convective showers will be ending at the KMCI/KMKC terminals shortly after 06z. Looks like there could be a lull of an hr or two before deformation band with rain/snow mix moves through these two terminals. All snow at KSTJ. From about KMCI northward when this band comes through will be mostly snow for several hours with minor accumulations possible. Around an inch at KSTJ and half an inch or less at KMCI. High end IFR/low end MVFR cigs till around sunrise when cigs quickly improve through MVFR to Clear by 14-15z time frame. Rest of forecast will see VFR conditions with breezy nw winds decreasing by late afternoon. MJ && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 719 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-091145- ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS- ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER- HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON- CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON- RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS- COOPER-BATES-HENRY- 719 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. HEAVIEST RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI WITH BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ADDITIONAL RAIN POSSIBLE. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS AND ALONG SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH INTO IOWA AND NEBRASKA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ON GRASSY AREAS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED HOWEVER ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING CONDITIONS AND SNOW AMOUNTS ARE APPRECIATED. MJ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
903 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 PM SNOW ROCKPORT 40.41N 95.52W
11/08/2011 E0.5 INCH ATCHISON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES AND
VEHICLES.
&&
GAMISThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Up to one inch of snow was reported in Savannah.
Up to one half inch of snow was reported in Tarkio.
Up to one half inch of snow was reported in Saint Joseph.
Up to three inches of snow was reported in Maryville.
Up to one inch of snow was reported in Grant City.
Up to one inch of snow was reported in Stanberry.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, November 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 353306, 353307, 353308, 353309, 353310, 353311.