High Surf in Hawaii, November 9 to 12, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED NOV 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ALONG WITH A LINGERING
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE STATE. THE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE KONA COAST OF THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY.  A
SECOND ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE TRADES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING...THERE HAS BEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY DIRECTLY UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. RADAR AND
SATELLITE INDICATE THE BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS AT LEAST 50 MILES TO
THE EAST...SO IT APPEARS WE ARE IN FOR A FAIRLY SOGGY MORNING. AS
USUAL THE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS THE MOST.
 MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL ENSURE LEEWARD SECTIONS OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS GET THEIR FAIR SHARE AS WELL. 2 AM SOUNDINGS
STILL INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL
EXISTS AND CANNOT ARGUE BEYOND A REASONABLE DOUBT TO REMOVE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY THE
AFTERNOON.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
EXTEND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON THE FOR
THE INTERIOR SLOPES ALONG THE KONA COAST. RELATIVELY DRIER
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WE ARE WATCHING IS JUST NORTH
OF KAUAI AND WILL SOON BLEND INTO THE EXISTING TROUGH STRETCHED
ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND. ONCE CONSOLIDATED...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LURK CLOSE BY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST FORECAST
MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CUT OFF AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AFTER THIS NEXT BOUT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS...DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLING AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WARMING...INDICATING INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE...POINTING TOWARD A MORE TYPICAL
TRADEWIND SHOWER REGIME.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL BOOST THE TRADES
TODAY AND KEEP THEM ON THE BREEZY SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND DRIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND...THE TRADES WILL RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR TURBULENCE BLW 080 S AND W OF
MOUNTAINS...DUE TO BRISK TRADE WINDS OVER ROUGH TERRAIN. ISOL TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL COASTAL WATERS DUE
TO THE STRONG TRADES AND LARGE COMBINED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

A LESS COMMON NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL COMBINED WITH
ROUGH...LOCALLY-GENERATED SEAS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SURF WELL ABOVE
THE ADVISORY LEVEL FOR EAST FACING AND POSSIBLY NORTH FACING SHORES
STARTING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS.

&&

TANABE