An upper level disturbance moved through North Mississippi during the evening hours of March 27th, 2011 into the overnight hours of March 28th, 2011. Showers and thunderstorms developed in association with the disturbance.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
An upper level disturbance moved through North Mississippi during the evening hours of March 27th, 2011 into the overnight hours of March 28th, 2011. Showers and thunderstorms developed in association with the disturbance. Some storms became severe and produced large hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 27, 5:53 PM CST, 1 minute earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 653 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR AVIATION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011/ DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO PLACE A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST BACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHERN COAST. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR/UPPER AIR PROFILER TRENDS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE IN THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE. SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...AS MENTIONED ABOVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH 315-320K SURFACES INDICATING INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT JUSTIFY CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT AND ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THESE AREAS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FREE WEATHER BACK TO THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEST 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 100 KT 300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1100-1300 J/KG ALL SUGGEST AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO PRODUCE MINI-SUPERCELLULAR TYPE TORNADOES. HOWEVER...SEVERAL QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON THE QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. AT THIS TIME THE AREA UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40 LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BASED ON THESE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND THREATS AS THIS POSSIBLE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. STAY TUNED... LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG RANGE MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY AND RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. CJC && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA AS LIFTING INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST AT EARLY EVENING. UNLIKE YESTERDAY EVENING... THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MIDSOUTH...OVER SOUTHERN MS. OVER THE MIDSOUTH...TSRA WAS FIRING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MS DELTA. THIS TSRA WAS ROOTED IN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED LAYER. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TS MENTION OUT OF THE JBR/MKL TAFS DUE TO LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FOR MEM AND TUP... TS THREAT MAY BE MARGINAL AFTER 03Z...WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER WITH RAIN WORKING OVER THE AIRMASS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TS IN A LITTLE LONGER THOUGH... WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. SHRA...ISOLATED TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL AREAWIDE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY. PWB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 38 60 42 62 / 100 10 10 50 MKL 36 59 37 60 / 100 10 10 50 JBR 35 56 39 52 / 100 10 10 60 TUP 42 63 43 69 / 100 10 10 50 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 516 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-281115- ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA- CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER- FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY- ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON- MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY- ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA- UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 516 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. SOME STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH MAJOR FLOODING AT OSCEOLA ARKANSAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE. RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS. CJC
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 110 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:51 UTC.
5 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Penny size hail fell at the intersection of County Road 202 and County Road 229.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, March 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 291254, 291265, 291268, 291270, 291273.