Hail and Damaging Winds in Alabama, March 27, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1118 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WAVY COLD FRONT FROM
THE SC COAST...THROUGH CENTRAL GA AND AL...TO COASTAL TX. LIKE
YESTERDAY...THERE WERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
FRONT...AND SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
BY WFOS TO OUR NORTH SO FAR THIS MORNING. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER
AIR DATA SHOWED A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE OVER LA/MS...AND WE EXPECT
THIS DISTURBANCE TO INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND ANY EXISTING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL INITIALIZATION FIELDS AND ANALYZED VAD
WIND PROFILE DATA INDICATE 0-6 KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAGNITUDES
FROM 30 TO 50 KT...BUT THESE WILL LIKELY REACH A PRETTY UNIFORM
50 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST...AND ALL NWP
GUIDANCE FORECASTS SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION TO FAVORABLE SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND CAPE...THERE REMAINS
A STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE OVER OUR REGION WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER ABOVE 650 MB. ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS...PLUS UPSTREAM RADAR
TRENDS...SUPPORT A THREAT FOR UNUSUALLY LARGE HAIL (FOR OUR AREA
AT LEAST) PRODUCED BY SUPER CELLS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO
THREAT APPEARS SMALL DUE TO UNIMPRESSIVE LOW LAYER SHEAR (15-
20 KT)...BUT THESE VALUES ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH TO DISMISS THE THREAT
COMPLETELY...NOR CAN WE RULE OUT LOCALLY FAVORABLE REGIONS NEAR
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY ENDED ACROSS MOST
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING...WHILE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST IN A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND ALABAMA WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...SERVING AS
THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS...ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SOME STORMS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL AND STRONG WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME 10-15 MPH AND GUSTY AGAIN BY
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND IFR CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...DUVAL
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1126 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-281530-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1126 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011 /1026 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE TODAY...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS WAS THE
CASE ON SATURDAY...STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. SOME OF THE HAIL
COULD BE UNUSUALLY LARGE. WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZED
HAIL SATURDAY...AND SIMILAR SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS DO
NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK...BUT A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY IN FLORIDA. THIS RAIN WILL PERHAPS
HERALD THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DROUGHT RELIEF ACROSS THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...WHERE ONGOING WILDFIRES HAVE BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO THE
ONGOING DROUGHT AND VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER SINCE THE IDES OF
MARCH.

IN FACT...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AFTER JUST ONE DAY OF DRY
CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL DECREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT AMATEUR
RADIO SUPPORT WILL BE NEEDED...BUT RADIO OPERATORS ARE ASKED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY FOR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER/BLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
114 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

ALZ065-066-271815-
COFFEE-DALE-
1214 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COFFEE AND DALE
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

AT 1208 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEW BROCKTON...OR NEAR RICHBURG...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FORT RUCKER BY 1230 PM CDT.
  OZARK BY 1240 PM CDT.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3162 8542 3135 8542 3132 8600 3154 8601
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 266DEG 29KT 3142 8588

38-GODSEY