Locally heavy rains affected portions of central Mississippi during the day as a low pressure system tracked across southern Mississippi. Saturated soil conditions were already in place across this region from heavier rains a few days before.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
Locally heavy rains affected portions of central Mississippi during the day as a low pressure system tracked across southern Mississippi. Saturated soil conditions were already in place across this region from heavier rains a few days before. A flood watch was in effect for the region where rising water levels in creeks and rivers led to widespread ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas. The training of storms caused some flash flooding in Copiah and Marion counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 26, 8:45 AM CST, 45 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 845 AM CST MON DEC 26 2011 ...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WITH QUIETER WEATHER WEEK AHEAD... .UPDATE...UPDATED TO EXPAND FLOOD WATCH TO ENCOMPASS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MORE IN HYDRO SELECTION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION AS A SMALL SW/V RESOLVED BY RUC/NAM OUTPUTS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AID IN OVERALL LIFT IN PRESENCE OF NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS. BOTH NMM/ARW SIM REFLECTIVITY DEPICT THIS ACTIVITY WELL AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST ALONG THE HWY-84 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC LIFT WILL ONLY GET BETTER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/EVE HOURS AS MAIN MID-LVL CLOSED LOW PHASES WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH LATER TODAY CAUSING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSRA OVER ALL THE REGION. INDUCED SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NRN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LVL LOW PIVOTS TOWARDS THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY SURGING MOISTURE NORTH ON 40-50 KT LOW-LVL JET INTO THE REGION. AMSU SAT BLENDED WATER PRECIP WATER INDICATES ~1.6 IN PWATS ACROSS SRN LA/MS...EQUATING TO NEAR 230% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS SUCH...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH PROLONGED DURATION POSSIBLE DUE TO TRAINING. AN EXPANSION OF THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST IS BEING EVALUATED. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. AS STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE COINCIDING WITH GREATEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND VIGOROUS LIFT OCCURS THIS LATE AFTN/NGT...AN UPSWING IN SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS PROBABLE ACROSS E MS. WHILE NO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN LACK OF MUCAPE/ SBCAPE...RAINFALL RATES COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. FROPA WILL DRIVE THROUGH REGION QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ENDING THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN/TSRA ACTIVITY. DRIZZLE/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE ACROSS S/W AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR FORECAST MATTERS...BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AS MAV WAS QUITE WARM IN SEVERAL AREAS AND MET SEEMINGLY NOT CAPTURING THE MOISTURE RETURN IN OTHERS. FOR TUESDAY...DROPPED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES GIVEN CAA...AND FORECAST MIXING HEIGHTS ~3 KFT EQUATING TO LOWER TO MID 50S GIVEN TEMP PROFILE. /ALLEN/ .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS WARMING A BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR THE MOST PART. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW 60S. A NICE BEGINNING TO THE NEW YEARS WEEKEND LOOKS ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON NEW YEARS EVE WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THERE SOLUTIONS AS WE PASS THROUGH THE NEW YEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BOTH OF THE MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE EURO INDICATING A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH SEVERE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND THE GFS FURTHER EAST WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND MAINLY INDICATING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND JUST SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING WITH THIS SCENARIO OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY SEVERE IN THE HWO. COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY EITHER WAY. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS/POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID WARM TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO INDICATE CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY./15/ && .AVIATION...MIXTURE OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES KGTR/KGLH/KGTR WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TAF LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD RA/TSRA IS ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AREAS AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF DAY. NRN SITES WILL RETURN TO MVFR TO IFR THIS MORNING AS RA/TSRA MOVES IN. GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL REDUCE VIS DOWN TO 1-2 SM AT TIMES WITH CIGS 200-500 FT. SFC WINDS WILL VEER FROM E TO S THROUGH THE DAY WITH QUICK SHIFT TO WEST FOLLOWING FROPA 06-12Z TUESDAY. WINDS SHEAR AND SPEEDS WITH HEIGHT WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTN/NIGHT..ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TAF SITES...AMPLIFYING TURBULENCE IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT. /ALLEN/ && .HYDROLOGY...SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES HAVE BEEN AFFECTING PARTS OF S MS THIS MORNING...WITH A BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAVING AFFECTED PARTS OF SE MS AND A FFW HAVING BEEN RECENTLY ISSUED. 88D RADAR ESTIMATES SEEM PRETTY GOOD IN THOSE AREAS BASED ON GROUND TRUTH REPORTS...AND ARE PROBABLY SEEING STORM TOTALS IN THE LAST 48 HOURS APPROACHING OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING 5 INCHES IN PARTS OF THESE AREAS. UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA...AND LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERAL WAVES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION AFFECTING MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH 06Z...POSSIBLY LONGER IN EASTERN SECTIONS. GIVEN SEVERAL WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK HAVING LOWERED ALREADY LIMITED ABILITY OF WINTER GROUND TO HANDLE HEAVY RAIN...AND SEVERAL RIVERS NOW APPROACHING OR FORECAST TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...HAVE WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION. LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WHERE TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS OCCURS. /08/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 55 43 54 34 / 100 100 3 0 MERIDIAN 57 47 55 31 / 100 100 8 0 VICKSBURG 55 41 54 32 / 100 94 3 0 HATTIESBURG 62 48 58 35 / 100 100 9 0 NATCHEZ 58 42 54 34 / 100 86 3 0 GREENVILLE 51 41 52 33 / 100 100 4 0 GREENWOOD 51 42 52 31 / 100 100 11 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT CST FOR ALL ZONES. LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT CST FOR ALL ZONES. AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT CST FOR ALL ZONES. && 08/JA/15
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 857 AM CST MON DEC 26 2011 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074- 271500- ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND- MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR- SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES- CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON- NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER- WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH- SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN- LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST- 857 AM CST MON DEC 26 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WAS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION. SOME TOTALS IN OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS HAVE ALREADY REACHED 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT COULD REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES AGAIN MAKING SOME STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE DELTA REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FOR TONIGHT... INCREASING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL AREA WIDE. THESE RAINS WILL BE FALLING ON NEARLY SATURATED GROUND FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT A TIME AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND INTO EAST MISSISSIPPI LATER TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WHERE RISING WATER LEVELS IN CREEKS AND RIVERS WILL ENABLE WIDESPREAD PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN ACTIVITY DIMINISHES INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. 40
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Three roads were under water near Morgantown.
Water covered south Sardis Road and Broome Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, December 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 354736, 354737.