Heavy Snow in Minnesota, November 19, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
619 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
MAJORITY OF SNOWFALL EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA. RADAR LOOP OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS SUGGESTS A COUPLE INCHES MAY HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. VSBY AT
KPIR HAS BEEN BELOW 1SM AT TIMES. LATEST MODEL DATA IS ACTUALLY
BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY...BASICALLY HITTING THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA THE HARDEST...THEN ALONG HWY 212 LATER TODAY.
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 12 AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ND/SD STATE LINE. ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HWY 14 AMOUNTS WILL REALLY DROP OF AS WELL. SO IT APPEARS
AREAS NEAR HWY 212 WILL LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST ACCUMS TODAY. KUNR
RADAR STILL SHOWING BAND OF HEAVY SNOW FROM SW SD NORTHEAST
TOWARDS KPIR. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND
MODELS SUGGESTING IT ORIENTING ITSELF NEAR HWY 212. NUDGED SNOW
AMOUNTS DOWN SOME FOR THE NORTHERN CWA...BUT KEPT DECENT AMOUNTS
NEAR HWY 212. STILL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS FROM
STANLEY COUNTY AREA...EAST TO SPINK COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...6 INCHES
NOT LOOKING LIKELY AND MAY EVEN BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES CLOSE TO THE
ND/SD STATE LINE. WILL LET CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING RIDE FOR
ENTIRE CWA...GIVEN A DECENT PORTION OF THIS WARNING FROM STANLEY
COUNTY OVER TO SPINK COUNTY MAY VERY WELL VERIFY OR COME CLOSE.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AND PERHAPS ISSUES WITH
BLOWING SNOW WITH THE INCREASED WINDS TODAY. DAY SHIFT MAY
CONSIDER DROPPING SOME COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING OR DOWNGRADING
ONCE THIS SNOW BAND BECOMES APPARENT WHERE IT WILL FINALLY SET UP.

LATER THIS EVENING SNOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPS WILL FALL
QUICKLY. EXPECTING SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO FOR LOWS.
LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER TO CONTEND WITH...BUT
PLACES THAT MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING
BELOW ZERO. QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS NOTED ON SATELLITE TO THE
NORTHWEST IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND OVER PARTS OF ND AND MT SO EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO BE IN THE REGION LATER TONIGHT ONCE STORM DEPARTS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MILD AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR
LATE NOVEMBER ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BRINGING MILD PACIFIC AIR TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONING TO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PUSHES EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OUT
WEST. THUS...OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY WEAK/MOISTURE LACKING SHORT WAVES MOVING
OVER. THE MODELS DO SHOW A STRONGER PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND AT THIS TIME
EXPECT THIS TO BE A DRY PASSAGE. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT AND DEPTH
OF THE NEW SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INFLUENCED. AT THIS TIME...SNOW MELT WILL BE OCCURRING WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S ON TUESDAY RISING INTO THE 40S FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALSO TIGHTENS UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING STRONGER
WINDS AND BETTER MIXING. THIS WOULD HELP IT WARM UP EVEN MORE.
THESE TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN WARMER OVER BARE GROUND AREAS FAR
SOUTH AND FAR NORTH IN THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 5 MILE RANGE AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS WITH VISIBILITIES
OCCASIONALLY BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES AT PIR AND ATY. CEILINGS WILL
ALSO BE IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-
     DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-
     LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-
     WALWORTH.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
438 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-201045-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
438 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2011 /338 AM MST SAT NOV 19 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS
WELL AS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. LOW END AMOUNTS
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12 AND NEAR THE DAKOTAS STATE LINE.
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR HIGHWAY 212 SOUTH
TO HIGHWAY 14...AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
650 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 AM     HEAVY SNOW       6 E HAYES               44.37N 100.90W
11/19/2011  M12.0 INCH       STANLEY            SD   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MELTED PRECIP 0.45

&&

KGILLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
711 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 AM     HEAVY SNOW       PIERRE                  44.37N 100.32W
11/19/2011  M7.0 INCH        HUGHES             SD   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

KGILLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
803 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 AM     SNOW             REDFIELD                44.87N 98.52W
11/19/2011  M3.0 INCH        SPINK              SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0802 AM     SNOW             CONDE                   45.16N 98.10W
11/19/2011  E2.0 INCH        SPINK              SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KGILLE