Bow echo complex moved from Illinois and Wisconsin into Southern Lower Michigan. In addition, a separate area of thunderstorms developed ahead of the main line.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
Bow echo complex moved from Illinois and Wisconsin into Southern Lower Michigan. In addition, a separate area of thunderstorms developed ahead of the main line. Strong instability and a continued feed of moisture fed the line as it raced east at speeds of up to 60 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 11, 3:06 AM EST, 6 hours 4 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
406 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011
.SHORT TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL LIMIT UTILITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE IN
THE NEAR TERM. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION WITH 850MB THETAE RIDGE OVER ILLINOIS ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S...WHILE STILL IN THE L60S OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING ML CAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG OVER
WESTERN ILLINOIS ALONG WITH MODEST BULK SHEAR SO EXPECT MCS ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD OUR AREA THIS MORNING...AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN WESTERN CWA TO REFLECT THESE
TRENDS. PRECIP CHANCES IN REMAINING PERIODS OF THE SHORT TERM
SUBJECT TO EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT MCS ACTIVITY WILL GO A LONG
WAY IN DETERMINING PROGRESS AND PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO NOT
INCLINED TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS AS DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ONCE MORNING CONVECTION RUNS ITS COURSE.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING INTO THE AREA WILL BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS FROM MCS...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS AOA 90F OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA. MOISTURE AXIS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR
CWA TODAY AND RESULT IN HEAT INDICES AOA 100 OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
THE SW CWA THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY TO COVER
THIS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BRING A MUCH WELCOMED BREAK TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY
GOING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT TENDENCIES OVER THE
NE CONUS INTO EASTERN CANADA ARE EXPECTED. MASSIVE CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH VERY WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED THERE. LOCALLY...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL REMAIN
ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED PERIPHERY FAST FLOW.
SEVERAL SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED IN W/NW FLOW EMANATING FROM
THE EASTERN PAC LONG WAVE TROUGH...AND ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACTED
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STRONG NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL SETTLE
INTO THE NE CONUS...SUPPORTING A RATHER STRONG NEGATIVE THETA-E
INTRUSION INTO THE REGION MID WEEK PER NE LL FLOW. DRY E/NE FLOW
WILL LINGER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE
SUPPORTING INCREASING CHANCES FOR A LL THETA-E UNDULATION FRI...WITH
LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN. FORECAST MODELS REMAIN ON THE SAME PAGE WRT
LARGE SCALE FLOW FORECAST DETAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED TO
SIDE HEAVY WITH THE ECMWF GIVEN PREFERENCE OF CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE
DETAILS AND RESULTING LOCAL EFFECTS. PREFERENCE IS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REMAINING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LONG WAVE RIDGE WITH
POSSIBLE ROSSBY LIKE WAVE RETROGRESSION.
WED-THUR...UNDULATING LL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY SEPARATING DEEP
MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH AND DRY FLOW TO THE NORTH WILL SETTLE WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ASSOCIATED MCS ACTIVITY TRENDING WELL SOUTH
OF THE REGION AS WELL. PREFERRED TO SIDE ABOVE MODEL/MOS CONSENSUS
NUMBERS...MORE IN LINE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THUR.
LACK OF SIG RAINFALL IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR NEAR SFC SUPERADIABATS WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEAR H85. COOL NIGHTS STILL ON TRACK WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT
WINDS/AND DRY LL FIELDS IN PLACE.
FRI-SUN...EASTERN PAC TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE EJECTION OF A STRONGER
MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WHICH WILL BECOME CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL SUPPORT LOCAL REFLECTED SW
FLOW...ADVECTING WARM MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. INCREASED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN A WAA REGIME WILL SUPPORT INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES...WHICH ATTM REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN PROGNOSING A
CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED PATTERN 5-7 DAYS OUT. DID RETAIN LOW CHANCE
POPS FRI/FRI NIGHT. CURRENT GFS/GEM/UKMET/ECMWF MEAN H5 HEIGHT
PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THE REGION WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF FAST
DISTURBED FLOW...OR A RING OF FIRE SCENARIO THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS OF RIDGE INTENSITY AND LL
THERMAL/MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FAR FROM BEING RESOLVED...WITH ADDED
UNCERTAINTY PER POORLY SAMPLED NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANT FLOW.
HENCE...HAVE OPTED FOR NO POP/WX MENTION ATTM. DID TREND TEMPS UP
GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL FIELDS/DRYING SOIL CONDITIONS/AND A TREND
TOWARD PERSISTENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...
WILL KEEP WITH GOING VFR FCST TO HOLD FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. LATEST IR
SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING IN
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ATTM. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND AREAL COVERAGE SUGGESTS NOT MENTIONING IN
TAFS ATTM. SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ012>018-020-022>027-
032>034.
MI...NONE.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR OHZ024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JALHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 818 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011 INZ003>009-012>018-LMZ043-046-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015- 121000- LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE- PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN- NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI- BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH- DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON... WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN... MONTPELIER...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING... ANTWERP 818 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011 /718 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO... SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM WINIMAC TO OTTAWA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX INZ020-022>027-032>034-OHZ016-024-025-121000- WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD- JAY-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT... PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN... DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND... OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA 818 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHERN INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 100 TO 105 ARE EXPECTED. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 855 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011 MIZ079-080-111400- BRANCH MI-ST. JOSEPH MI- 855 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHEASTERN ST. JOSEPH AND BRANCH COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN... AT 852 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLON...OR 13 MILES EAST OF THREE RIVERS... MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... COLDWATER... UNION CITY... QUINCY... SHERWOOD... MATTESON LAKE... BATAVIA AND HODUNK... GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. LAT...LON 4207 8484 4181 8483 4197 8551 4208 8534 TIME...MOT...LOC 1256Z 281DEG 26KT 4199 8534
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
933 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011
MIZ081-111400-
HILLSDALE MI-
933 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN HILLSDALE COUNTY...
AT 929 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR JONESVILLE...OR NEAR HILLSDALE...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
NORTH ADAMS...OSSEO AND MOSCOW...
JEROME...
GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.
LAT...LON 4204 8436 4190 8437 4190 8435 4185 8436
4191 8475 4207 8471 4208 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 280DEG 30KT 4197 8460The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 106 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:10 UTC.
14 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The ASOS at the Benton Harbor airport recorded a 53 knot (61 mph) wind gust.
Trees and power lines were reported blown down by the public in the Berrien Springs area.
A trained spotter reported trees and tree limbs blown down in and around Millburg.
A trained spotter reported a 12 inch diameter tree blown down blocking portions of the 400 block of Ridgeway.
A trained spotter reported a 18 to 24 inch diameter tree down across Fir Road, just north of the Michigan/Indiana state line. The spotter estimated winds of around 65 mph.
Trained spotters reported multiple trees down two miles north of US 12, on Highway 40.
Trained spotters reported trees and tree limbs down. A eight inch diameter branch was blocking Riverside Drive, just west of Blue School Road in Constantine.
Local fire officials reported numerous trees and power lines down in and around Three Rivers.
A trained spotter reported two trees down, as well as roof damage to a commercial building. Damage is estimated at $15,000.
Emergency management officials reported power lines and trees down onto the roadway, near Nottawwa and Ann Streets.
Emergency management officials reported trees and power lines down, mainly on the east side of Sturgis.
Local fire officials reported multiple trees and power lines down along Custer and Decker Roads.
Emergency management officials reported damage to a barn and a billboard being blwon down.
Emergency management officials reported trees down across the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 330709, 330693, 330694, 330696, 330710, 330698, 330699, 330701, 330703, 330704, 330705, 330706, 330707, 330708.