Cold air in the wake of an Alberta low clipper system resulted in moderate lake effect snow showers over northern Luce County on the 4th.
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The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
Cold air in the wake of an Alberta low clipper system resulted in moderate lake effect snow showers over northern Luce County on the 4th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 4, 4:15 AM EST, 3 hours 45 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 415 AM EST TUE JAN 4 2011 .DISCUSSION /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... LES PICKED UP OVER THE KEWEENAW EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A SURGE OF H925-700 MOISTURE MOVED THROUGH WITH THE SFC TROUGH. WINDS LOOK TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE WNW FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF -SHSN. THEN AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA EXITS THIS MORNING AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN...THINK THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN LES...BEFORE COLDER H850 /AROUND -16 TO -17C/ TEMPS WORK IN DURING THE AFTN. AS THESE TEMPS WORK IN...THINK THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT LAG IN DEVELOPMENT OF LES AS THE NVA EXITS AND BEFORE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SFC LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E AND ALLOW WINDS TO BACK TO MORE OF A WSW DIRECTION FOR LATE THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. THINK THESE FACTORS WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL TOTALS TODAY. TONIGHT...BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME LLVL WIND CONVERGENCE WITH THE WINDS OVER THE U.P. BACKING SW AND THE WINDS OVER NRN LK SUPERIOR BEING LIGHT OUT OF THE WNW. DO HAVE SOME UNCERTAINLY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE BAND...AS UPPER HEIGHTS STARTING TO BUILD TONIGHT...ALLOWING H850 TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND -13C BY 12Z WED. IN ADDITION...WITH THE WIND FIELDS OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR BACKING MORE TO THE SW...THE BAND SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY TRANSITION OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. BELIEVE THAT THERE COULD BE A 6-9HR PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL AMNTS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE. WED...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING SE INTO NRN ALBERTA LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS NRN WI AND UPPER MI. MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH H850-500 Q-VECTOR CONV AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 270-280K SFCS...SHOULD SEE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. MODELS CURRENTLY PUTTING OUT AROUND 0.05 OF QPF WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMNTS ALONG THE WI BORDER CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. WITH SLR AROUND 20 TO 1...DUE TO MUCH OF THE OMEGA IN THE DGZ...EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WED. DEPENDING ON HOW THE SW WINDS SETUP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...COULD SEE LK ENHANCEMENT WITH THE SW WINDS OFF LK MI. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND -12C...WHICH WOULD GIVE DELTA-T VALUES OF 16. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...AS THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A TRACK ACROSS THE CWA AND MORE SW WINDS...WHILE THE 00/06Z NAM SHOWS A FARTHER S TRACK AND LIMITS THE SW WINDS. OVERALL...IF LK ENHANCEMENT OCCURS IT LOOKS TO BE JUST E OF SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND MERGE WITH ENERGY OFF THE EAST COAST ON WED THEN JUST E OF THE CWA FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS...AND LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE UNTIL SAT. AS SEEN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF FCST SHIFTS...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE COLD AIR. THE 00Z GFS/NAM STARTS OFF ON THE COLD SIDE WITH AN INITIAL SURGE OF -20C H850 TEMPS ON THURS. MEANWHILE...THE 03/12Z ECMWF ONLY HAS TEMPS AROUND -15C...WHICH IS LARGELY DUE TO IT KEEPING THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND DELAYING THE MERGING OF THE UPPER LOWS UNTIL THURS NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOO ABOUT 24 HRS AFTER THE NAM/GFS. THE 00Z UKMET...03/21Z SREF...AND 03/12Z GEM SUPPORT A SOLN SIMILAR TO THE NAM/GFS...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO HPC PREFERENCES. 04/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF CAME IN CLOSER TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FCST PROCESS...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST. FOLLOWING THAT BLEND OF SOLNS...THINK THAT THE THURS/FRI TIMEFRAME LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY LES...AS THE COLDER H850 TEMPS ARRIVE ON THURS AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES S ON THURS AFTN AND FRI. WITH THE H850/700/500 LOWS CENTERED JUST E OF THE SOO DURING THAT PERIOD AND A SE TO NW SFC TROUGH SETUP OVER LK SUPERIOR FROM THE UPPER 990S LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LKS...EXPECT NNW FLOW TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS WOULD PUT THE HEAVIEST SNOWS IN THE NNW FAVORED LOCATIONS MARQUETTE COUNTY AND EASTWARD AND ALSO THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN CWA. BEST OMEGA SHOULD BE RIGHT AT OR JUST ABOVE THE DGZ...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SLR OF 20-30 TO 1. WITH THE CURRENT QPF FORECAST...HAVE AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW FOR ALGER COUNTY FROM 06Z THURS TO 06Z FRI. SINCE IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT LES EVENT FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOCATIONS ON THURS THROUGH FRI NIGHT...A WATCH LIKELY NEEDED IN A FUTURE SHIFT. OVERALL...THOUGHT THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAD A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE FCST...SO ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRI NIGHT...WHICH WILL START TO MODERATE H850 TEMPS AND PULL THE DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS...COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR FROM SFC LOW DROPPING S INTO MANITOBA ON SAT WILL LEAD TO SOME DIMINISHING OF THE LES ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN FOR LES LOCATIONS...AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ITEMS TO BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS TO MORE OF A NE DIRECTION. OVERALL...THINK LES WILL BE PRESENT BUT IT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. DIDN/T MAKE ANY CHANGES PAST SATURDAY EVENING...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT POPS/SKY...DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF NE WINDS AND MODERATING H850 TEMPS WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. && .AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/... WINDS VEERING WRLY ARE EXPECTED TO BRING LES BACK INTO THE KCMX AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND OCNL IFR VSBY. THE LES MAY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN LES INTENSITY. AT KSAW...WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND MAINLY LIGHT WRLY WINDS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/... WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT INTO WED AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W. AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WED EVENING...A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE N WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL THEN DOMINATE THRU THU IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX FRI AS A TROF PIVOTS SW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH INTO THE 15-25 RANGE FOR FRI INTO SAT. EXPECT PERIODS OF FREEZING SPRAY THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY OCCURRING LATE WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && DISCUSSION...SRF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...ROLFSON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 447 AM EST TUE JAN 4 2011 MIZ001>007-009-084-085-051200- KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE- GOGEBIC-SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- 447 AM EST TUE JAN 4 2011 /347 AM CST TUE JAN 4 2011/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE SNOW BELTS FAVORED BY A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MIZ010>014-051200- IRON-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- 447 AM EST TUE JAN 4 2011 /347 AM CST TUE JAN 4 2011/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-051200- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI- BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI- ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI- EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI- MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI- POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI- MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI- GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE ROYALE NATIONAL PARK- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- 447 AM EST TUE JAN 4 2011 /347 AM CST TUE JAN 4 2011/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...MAINLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LMZ221-248-250-051200- GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI- 5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE- 447 AM EST TUE JAN 4 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SRF
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Observers near Two Heart and Deer Park measured four inches of lake effect snow in 12 hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, January 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 276871.