Hail and Damaging Winds in Maine, July 11, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
350 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT.
A TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE ALSO
PRESENT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR GUSTY WINDS...HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ROTATING STORMS AND FLASH
FLOODING...PLEASE SEE HYDROLOGY PORTION OF THIS DISCUSSION. FOR
TUESDAY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATER IN THE
DAY WITH POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...SO WILL ALSO
INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. FOR POPS
HAVE INITIALIZED GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF THE SREF AND ECMWF. HAVE
THEN MADE SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENT TO INCREASE POPS IN HIGHEST
PROBABILITY AREAS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GMOS FOR
WINDS. THE GMOS WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BUT WILL
USE NAM12 FOR COASTAL WATERS TEMPERATURES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE. THESE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AND WILL DISSIPATE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MAKE ITS REAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY SO EXPECT THE WEATHER TO BE DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THICKER. EXPECT GENERALLY LOWER 70S NORTH WITH
UPPER 70S DOWNEAST DUE TO DOWNSLOPING ON WEDNESDAY...THEN UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
CWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN... WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NW
FLOW MOVES THROUGH AND COMBINES WITH DEVELOPING WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT SURFACE. RESULT IS INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
END OF PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
IFR POSSIBLE AT KBHB IN FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS 40 FOR WINDS.
FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY FETCH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM THE GULF OF
MAINE SOUTHWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT
RESULTS IN WIND SHIFT LATER TUESDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF MAINE STILL IN THE LOW 50S
AND SUSPECT THAT LOW LEVEL INVERSION COULD RESULT IN WAVE MODEL
WINDS TOO STRONG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE. SO WILL
INITIALIZE WITH NAM/SWAN AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 1 FOOT TO
COMPENSATE FOR MARINE LAYER. WILL ISSUE SCA FOR SEAS FROM 09Z INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.

SHORT TERM: SWELLS OF 4-5 FT EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
THESE SHOULD RECEDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO A MILE
OR LESS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE QUIET AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS
EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE. THE RUC STILL INDICATES A POTENT
LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH PWATS AND DEEP WARM
CLOUD DEPTH...SUGGESTING THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TRAINING CELLS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE 3KM HRRR MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AROOSTOOK...N SOMERSET...N
PISCATAQUIS AND N PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS THESE
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN THE BULK OF RAIN THIS SEASON SO THE SOIL IS
ALREADY SATURATED. THEREFORE IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CREATE PURE
RUNOFF. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...RAHE
AVIATION...MIGNONE
MARINE...MIGNONE/HASTINGS
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
330 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-121930-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
330 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MAINE...NORTH
CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE...SOUTHEAST MAINE AND WEST CENTRAL
MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...WITH GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING WILL
DEVELOP IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS PISCATAQUIS...PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY BE POTENTIALLY SEVERE...WITH GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ050>052-121930-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO SCHOODIC POINT ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
INTRACOASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME-
330 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MIGNONE