A strong upper level storm moved across the plains and produced widespread snow across southwest Kansas. Parts of the area did receive heavy snowfall.
Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DDC wrote it up.
A strong upper level storm moved across the plains and produced widespread snow across southwest Kansas. Parts of the area did receive heavy snowfall.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 7, 5:00 PM CST, 7 hours earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 500 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... TONIGHT: A COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A FULL FLEDGED WINTER STORM TO FORECAST. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWS OUR WEATHER MAKER MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY STRONG WITH A 120 KNOT 250 HPA JET CARVING THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OUT WEST. SOME CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO, WHICH INDICATES COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A STRONG AND DYNAMIC SYSTEM. CLOSER TO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, THE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLOUDY OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY COOL (IN THE 30S AND 20S DEG F). THIS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH KANSAS BECOMING IN THE FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THIS WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD LIFT IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL PRODUCE A HEALTHY PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THE SURFACE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL KEEP KANSAS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW AND THUS WINTER WEATHER IS OUR MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE STORM DURATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA ARE ONLY IN THE 40S DEG F, HOWEVER, 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT NORMAL TO 75 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS KDDC COUNTRY AND OUT TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MODELS AS STORM TOTAL QPF ARE AROUND 1.00-1.25 LIQUID INCHES. THIS MOISTURE TAP HAS RAISED A CONCERN FOR A HIGHER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. TOMORROW: PRECIPITATION TYPES WERE THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY AS THE 07.12 NAM INSISTED ON A COOLING, THEN WARMING, THEN COOLING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. THIS DOESN'T SEEM VERY LIKELY OR NORMAL TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW BACK TO RAIN AGAIN SO THERE WAS A BIT OF FINAGLING TO GET THE WX GRIDS TO APPROPRIATELY DESCRIBE WHAT I THINK WILL BE THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO SLEET AND THEN SNOW AS THE RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING LINE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE CWFA. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FROM THE DIURNAL FROM MODEL BLEND FROM THE NAM SOLUTION AS WE ARE ALREADY COLD AND IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO GET COOLER WITH PLENTY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS PLUS COPIOUS CLOUD COVER. THE 07.12Z NAM AND GFS ALSO HAVE INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWAL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE 850-700 HPA LOW. ANALYSIS OF THE 310 THETA-E FIELDS SHOWS THIS TROWAL CLEARLY. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 285-290K THETA FIELDS WERE ALSO NOTED WITHIN THE TROWAL. THE MODELS REFLECT THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE BY KEEPING A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WRAPPING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. AS A RESULT, HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING SOUTH INTO HAMILTON, KEARNEY, AND FINNEY COUNTIES. ALSO THINK THERE IS A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR 6 MOST SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SO HAVE THREW THEM INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WELL. SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE 07.12Z GFS/NAM AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE AND CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BULLSEYE OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. IF THIS TROWAL ACTUALLY DEVELOPS, AND MOVES SOUTH, THEN THE WARNING MIGHT HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH FROM AN ADVISORY TO A WARNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MESOSCALE FEATURE AND THE EXACT RAIN SNOW/LINE. HAVE A SNEAKING SUSPICION BASED OFF OBSERVATIONS ALONE THAT THE MODELS ARE TOO WARM AND THAT WE COULD SEE HIGHER SNOW FALL THAN WE CURRENTLY FORECAST. ANYWAY, BY TOMORROW EVENING, ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE FORMS ALONG WITH SW KANSAS EVENTUALLY BECOMING LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE JET STREAK. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A RESULT. HAVE LOW BALLED TOMORROWS HIGHS AS A RESULT OF WETBULBING AND CLOUD COVER. WEDNESDAY: WEDNESDAY WILL SEEM MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL 500 HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OUT WEST. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA CONSIDERABLY AND BELOW ANY MODEL GUIDANCE IN ANTICIPATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND HOPEFULLY CONSIDERABLE SNOWPACK. WE SHALL SEE HOW IT WORKS OUT. -SUGDEN DAYS 3-7... THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POISED TO COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THAT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ONSHORE ON SATURDAY AND APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE GOING FORECAST HAS SMALL CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL KEEP THESE POPS AS THEY ARE FOR NOW. THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE COLDER AIR CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ALSO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LIQUID. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST. && .AVIATION... IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT HAYS AND GARDEN CITY AND WILL DEVELOP AT DODGE CITY MAINLY AFTER 00Z. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW AROUND GARDEN CITY WHILE FARTHER EAST PRECIPITATION COULD START OUT AS RAIN AT DODGE CITY AND HAYS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO A MILE OR LESS BY 12Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 30 32 20 45 / 90 100 20 0 GCK 26 29 17 43 / 90 100 30 0 EHA 25 32 19 51 / 90 100 20 0 LBL 29 31 20 49 / 90 100 20 0 HYS 28 29 16 30 / 90 100 50 0 P28 36 43 26 47 / 90 100 20 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TUESDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ030-031-043>046- 061>063. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ064-065-074>079-084>086. && FN36/02/02
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 904 AM CST MON MAR 7 2011 KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-081515- TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN- PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA- PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER- 904 AM CST MON MAR 7 2011 /804 AM MST MON MAR 7 2011/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT NORTH OF A LINE FROM SHALLOW WATER TO RUSH CENTER. SEE WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SHALLOW WATER TO RUSH CENTER AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM AREAS IN SOUTHWEST HAMILTON COUNTY TO MONTEZUMA TO BUCKLIN TO KINSLEY TO LARNED. SEE WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW PRODUCTS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS TO THE SHERIFFS OFFICE WHO WILL RELAY THE REPORT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. && FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Snow fall of 6.5 inches was reported at a location 1 mile northwest of Scott City.
Snow fall of 10.0 inches was reported at Shields.
Snow fall of 8.0 inches was recorded at a location 7miles south-southeast of Utica.
Snow fall of 6.0 inches was recorded at a location 1 mile north of Syracuse.
Snow fall of 12.0 inches was recorded in Dighton.
Snow fall of 7.0 inches was recorded at a location in northern Finney county.
Snow fall of 8.0 inches was recorded at a location 8 miles south of Trego Center.
Snow fall of 7.0 inches was recorded at a location 13 miles east of Friend.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, March 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 295164, 295166, 295167, 295169, 295170, 295171, 295172, 295173.