Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 2, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
345 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING IN THE WEST FA, THEN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY TILL 8 PM AS A FEW STATIONS HIT
THE CRITERIA.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY MORNING. THIS EVENING A
DISTURBANCE IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET OFF
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO THAT COULD PROPAGATE INTO FAR
WESTERN KANSAS, THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD GARDEN CITY BEFORE
DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WITH CAPES AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 60KTS COULD HAVE SOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTERS AND STRONG WINDS GREATER THAN 70
MPH. CURRENT THINKING HOWEVER WITH 700MB TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 16C
THAT THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND GUST OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS GARDEN CITY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE HAIL
AND WINDS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP A 20 TO 30 POP GOING WEST OF A LINE
FROM DIGHTON TO MEADE FOR THIS EVENING. THE HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL
SUPPORTS AN MCS COMING OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM 15 TO 22 MPH
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEADING TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT. WILL
GO CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S WEST
TO AROUND 70 EAST.

FOR FRIDAY THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH TO NEAR HAYS AND
SYRACUSE BY EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING NEAR THE FRONT WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WILL GO WITH A 20 POP OVER THE NORTH
FA. INSTABILITY IS BEST UP TOWARDS HAYS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
HAVE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW TO
MID 60S WEST.

FOR SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT FROM ST. JOHN TO NEAR DODGE
CITY TO SYRACUSE. AGAIN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CAPES ARE FORECAST AROUND 1500
J/KG WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WARM CAP. THE SHEAR PROFILE AT MID LEVELS
IS WEAK HOWEVER AROUND 50 TO 60KTS AT HIGHER LEVELS COULD HELP
SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HIGHS LOOK TO BE VERY WARM AGAIN SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND AROUND 90 NORTH OF THE
FRONT.

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE NAM CONTINUES TO FORECAST MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN THE GFS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, HOWEVER AREA CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE GFS MODEL.
THIS WOULD KEEP MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS JUST ABOVE CRITICAL
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 PERCENT. NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

DAYS 3-7...

QUIESCENT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. MY PERIOD BEGINS 00Z SUNDAY AND WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS MY NORTHERN ZONES IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT FROM A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MARGINAL DEWPOINTS (IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
DEG F) POOLING ALONG A STALLED FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST CAPE IN
THE 1500 J/KG RANGE. 40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR COULD CREATE A FEW
HAILERS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST HAS GHOST POPS (UNDER 15 PERCENT)
AS A BIG 500 HPA RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 585-590 DECAMETER HEIGHTS OVER KANSAS
SQUASHING OUT ANY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. BY THURSDAY, 500 HPA
HEIGHTS WILL LOWER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES MOVES EAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BRING A DRY
SURFACE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WHICH WILL DROP THE HIGHS FROM 95-100
DEG F TO THE MID 90S AS THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN THE MID LEVELS PASSES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENTLY AM
EXPECTING THE HOTTEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DURING MY FORECAST PERIOD WITH 100 DEG F LOOKING COMMON ACROSS THE
DDC CWFA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WAY OUT IN THE
LONG TERM RANGE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGHT SWING SOUTH ENOUGH TO
SEND A STRONGER VORTMAX THROUGH WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS
SOLUTION DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. -SUGDEN

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. THE SHORT TERM CONCERN FOR
THE TERMINALS IS WIND SPEEDS WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 25-30 KNOTS AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING TOWARDS
00Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ACROSS
THE TERMINALS ALTHOUGH SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
KGCK THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVECTION
SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. 700 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE WARM (AROUND
15 DEG C) SO THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE. GENERALLY THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORM CELLS
SHOULD BE WEST OF KGCK ACCORDING TO MESOSCALE MODELS. IF A STORM
WERE TO DRIFT OVER THE TERMINAL, THEN LOCALLY AND TEMPORARILY
REDUCED CIGS TO LOW VFR IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
CONVECTION IS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL. -SUGDEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  96  64  96 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  68  96  64  95 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  64  95  63  95 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  66  97  62  97 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  70  95  64  92 /  10  20  20  20
P28  71  98  69  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

FN06/36

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1247 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-031800-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1247 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011 /1147 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY EVENING. THEY SHOULD
QUICKLY FALL APART AND DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA IS
MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM DIGHTON TO MEADE WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS GREATER THAN 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORE SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS AREA IS MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM LACROSSE TO SCOTT CITY ON FRIDAY AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM SAINT JOHN TO SYRACUSE ON SATURDAY. HAIL FROM DIME
SIZE TO QUARTERS AND STRONG WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING WEST OF LINE FROM
DIGHTON TO MEADE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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