Across North Central Kansas, the first widespread heavy snow of the season fell between Saturday, January 8th, and Monday, January 10th, 2011, as an expansive upper level low pressure system centered over the Northern Rockies built increasingly farther into the Central Plains. By event's end, most counties reported snowfall between 5-8 inches, with 9 inches leading the way at Burr Oak in Jewell…
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
Across North Central Kansas, the first widespread heavy snow of the season fell between Saturday, January 8th, and Monday, January 10th, 2011, as an expansive upper level low pressure system centered over the Northern Rockies built increasingly farther into the Central Plains. By event's end, most counties reported snowfall between 5-8 inches, with 9 inches leading the way at Burr Oak in Jewell County.
This was a prolonged snow event, with many areas experiencing more than one round over a 36 to 48-hour period. While the first round of snow from the 8th into the 9th stayed primarily north of the Kansas-Nebraska state line, things really picked up across North Central Kansas during the mid-afternoon hours on the 9th, and lasting through the overnight hours into the 10th. During this time, a nearly stationary area of light to moderate, and occasionally heavy snow fell across nearly the entire area. By mid-morning on the 10th, light snow or flurries still lingered on, but the vast majority of accumulating snow was over.
Fortunately, winds were rather light during the period of heaviest snowfall from the 9th into the morning hours on the 10th, with limited impact from blowing and drifting. However, northwesterly winds picked up during the day on the 10th, with gusts of 20-30 mph resulting in minor drifting and locally reduced visibilities. Once the snow ended, bitterly cold air became the story for a few days, with most of the area struggling to reach 15 degrees on both the 11th and 12th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 8, 5:29 PM CST, 31 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
529 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011
.AVIATION...00Z TAF. KUEX SHOWS LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD DUE TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE 285K
SURFACE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TRYING TO PIN DOWN CIGS AND VSBYS
DURING THE SNOW...AND INSTEAD OF TRYING TO CHASE EVERY DIFFERENT
POSSIBILITY...HAVE OPTED TO FOCUS ON WHAT SHOULD BE MORE OF THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW EVENT UNFOLDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING CIGS/VISIBILITIES WITH TIME TONIGHT. CURRENTLY KGRI IS
VFR...BUT WITH THE SNOW IN THE AREA...WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP OF
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH A PREVAILING
GROUP OF LOWER VIS/CIGS IN THE SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY REMAIN FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE UPCOMING
PROLONGED SNOW EVENT...AND OVERALL...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREV
THINKING.
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON...HIT AND MISS BANDS OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW
WERE ONGOING IN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FASHION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY IS TIED RATHER CLOSELY TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/SATURATION ON THE 295K SFC...WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 120KT H3 JET STREAK CENTERED FROM ILLINOIS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. 21Z OBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWARD FROM MN INTO MO...WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM EAST/SOUTHEAST
BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE CWA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE.
MID AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
FEATURE THREE H5 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CONUS...ONE IN
THE SOUTHWEST...ANOTHER DEPARTING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND
THE THIRD...MOST IMPACTFUL VORT MAX FOR THE LOCAL AREA JUST
STARTING TO CREEP INTO MONTANA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OVERALL...DIDN/T CHANGE A WHOLE LOT BIG PICTURE WISE WITH THE
UPCOMING SNOW POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AS PREV FCST
ALREADY HAD VERY HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...QPF AND ASSOCIATED SNOW
AMOUNTS IN INDIVIDUAL 6-12 HOUR BLOCKS WERE MODIFIED SOMEWHAT.
STARTING OFF TONIGHT...THE ONGOING NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST BANDS OF
FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A BIT
STEADIER LIGHT SNOWFALL AS PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES IN
THE MID LEVELS...AND THINGS CONTINUE TO SATURATE FROM TOP DOWN.
UNLIKE SEVERAL PREV EVENTS THIS SEASON...DENDRITIC LAYER RH IS
QUITE HIGH...AND AM NOT ANTICIPATING A FZDZ THREAT. THROUGH
SUNRISE...HAVE AIMED FOR ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM ONLY A DUSTING
IN KS ZONES ALONG WITH FAR SOUTHERN NEB...UP TO 1-2 INCHES
NEAR/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN THE MOST FOCUSED AREA OF LIFT. AS A
RESULT...KEPT THE 03Z START TIME FOR THE NEB PORTION OF THE
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT ESPECIALLY THE BOTTOM 2
ROWS OF NEB COUNTIES COULD BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE 1 INCH BY
SUNRISE. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINING IN THE 10-15 MPH
RANGE...NOT ANTICIPATING A HUGE TRAVEL IMPACT TONIGHT.
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE A GENERAL INCREASE IN SNOWFALL
EFFICIENCY...AS THE H5 SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS FARTHER INTO
THE PLAINS...AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE BECOMES CONSIDERABLY MORE
PRONOUNCED AT H3...AS A 140KT JET STREAK DIVES ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND ANOTHER JET SEGMENT LOOPS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST GFS/ECMWF/4KM EMC WRF-NMM RUNS ARE CLEARLY FOCUSING MOST OF
THE SNOWFALL SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA...IN A
STRENGTHENING ZONE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/DEFORMATION EVIDENT
AT H6. THIS RESULTS IN SOUTHEAST ZONES BEING LUCKY TO SEE 1 INCH
DURING THE DAY...WHILE NORTHERN/WESTERN AREA SHOULD BE IN LINE FOR
AT LEAST 2-3 INCHES. SPEAKING OF SOUTHERN AREAS...THE START TIME
OF THE KS SEGMENT OF THE ADVISORY WAS PUSHED BACK TO 18Z...AND
EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A BIT ON THE EARLY SIDE WITH MOST OF THE FOCUS
OVER NEB ZONES DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PRIMARY 24 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WILL KICK
IN CWA-WIDE...AND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO RECEIVE 3-4 INCHES DURING
THIS TIME AS UPPER SUPPORT/LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/DEFORMATION
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. WINDS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE FAIRLY LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER...WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS POKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO THE CWA. ALL IN ALL...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM 5-8 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS MORE SO 3-4. SEE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT DETAILS. ALL IN ALL...A
FAIRLY UNIQUE LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS...AND
INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS/FORCING THEREAFTER. AS FOR LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD BE IN LINE FOR A GOOD 0.3 TO
0.5 INCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE SOME
MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURE WISE...FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT...STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MET/MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV
GUIDANCE...WITH MOST NEB ZONES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID
20S...AND KS ZONES UPPER 20S/NEAR 30.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE SNOWFALL THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL THINKING AS TO HOW THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FROM ONE MODEL TO THE NEXT. THE
HEAVIER SNOW THAT BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS HEAVIER SNOW AXIS
WILL THEN SLIP EAST OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY EVENING AND THE SNOW WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AREA AND INTENSITY MONDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA...TO 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE ONE INCH OR LESS. WHEN YOU ADD UP ALL OF THE LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE TWO AND A HALF DAY PERIOD RUNNING FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...THE GRAND TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 8
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND 6 TO 9 INCHES OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST MODELS AND
REAL TIME OBSERVATIONS OVER THE COMING HOURS AS THE EVENT BEGINS TO
UNFOLD. ONE INTERESTING NOTE IS THAT THE 12Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED
THAT MODELS DOWNWARD TREND IN FORECASTED QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAW
12Z ECMWF OUTPUT NOW ONLY SHOWS .40 TO .65 HUNDREDTHS OF MOISTURE
WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS IS A REDUCTION IN
RAW QPF OF AT LEAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS. THE SYSTEM AS
DEPICTED BY THE NEWER ECMWF IS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH LESS
LIFT AND PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLIER ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF SFC WIND
FIELDS ARE ALSO WEAKER AND BEGINNING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER
WIND SPEED MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE WIND SHOULD STILL SHIFT FROM EAST TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY AND INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE 850MB WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE SO HARD TO SEE HOW THE SFC WIND CAN GET MUCH MORE THAN
SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THE LIGHT AND FLUFFY NATURE OF THE
SNOW...THESE WINDS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL FIRST
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES MONDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH BE BITTERLY COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM AROUND 0 TO 15 BELOW.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WITH SOME NORTHERN CWA LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING ABOVE 0 FOR A
HIGH BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK PRIMARILY DRY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 138 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 091200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 138 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. TONIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS GOES INTO EFFECT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THESE ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. AS SNOW DIMINISHES MONDAY NIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BECOME AN ISSUE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ARE LIKELY AT VARIOUS TIMES BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNT REPORTS ARE ENCOURAGED THROUGH THE UPCOMING EVENT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) PFANNKUCH
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 winter weather, 2 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall accumulations ranged from 7 to 9 inches across the county.
Snowfall accumulations ranged from 8 to 10 inches across the county.
Snowfall accumlations ranged from 4 to 6 inches across the county.
Snowfall accumlations ranged from 4 to 6 inches across the county.
Snowfall accumlations ranged from 4 to 6 inches across the county.
Snowfall accumlations ranged from 5 to 7 inches across the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, January 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 278176, 278177, 278178, 278179, 278180, 278181.