Winter Weather in Kansas, December 22, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
554 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KCNU. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE RATHER STOUT/GUSTY TODAY...DUE TO
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. THE COLD AIR
FILTERING SOUTH WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS BELOW 2000 FT AGL
SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THINKING THE CIGS WILL REACH
KICT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...AN AREA OF WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. KSLN-KRSL WILL SEE THIS
MAINLY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH KHUT-KICT
POSSIBLY SEEING THIS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
SOUTH...MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY:
LEAD WINDSHIFT HAS PUSHED INTO THE FLINT HILLS...WHILE COLD FRONT
PROPER WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL KS. 0000 UTC MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE SPED UP TIMING. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS SHEARING OUT IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO ONLY MODEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION.
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER SO...BUT ENOUGH
FACTORS ARE IN PLACE FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AT MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RISE BEHIND FRONT
WITH INCREASED MIXING...BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY TAKE
OVER BY MIDDAY IN CENTRAL KS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
SOME SORT OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX/TRANSITION ALONG LEADING EDGE...
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED...
GIVEN LAPSE RATES AND FORCING.

TONIGHT:
APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF OR EXITING
SOUTHEAST KS AROUND 0000 UTC. WILL DRIBBLE SOME SMALL POPS IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS IN CASE IT SLOWS A BIT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING
SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL CONTINUE TO GO
LOWER ACROSS SNOWPACK IN CENTRAL KS.

FRI:
WITH DRY AIRMASS...SUBSIDENCE AND FULL SUN...SHOULD SEE SOME
RECOVERY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SNOWPACK.
TEMPERATURES COULD END UP A BIT WARMER IN SOUTHEAST KS...WHERE
DOWNWIND EFFECTS OF SNOW COVER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

SAT-SUN:
WITH DECENT MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS...ALTHOUGH AREAS WEST OF FLINT
HILLS MIGHT SEE LINGERING EFFECTS FROM SNOWCOVER. DRY CONDITION
AND FULL/NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.

MON-WED:
MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD...WITH MODELS STRUGGLING HOW TO
HANDLE REMNANTS OF CUT OFF LOW AND NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES FROM 0000 UTC GFS/ECMWF WHERE GOING
IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS...HOWEVER CONSENSUS LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF WHICH SUGGEST DECENT WARMUP ON MON FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUE/WED. TEMPERATURES COULD GO EVEN WARMER ON MON
IF GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND SNOW IS GONE OVER
WESTERN KS. -HOWERTON

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
CONCERN STILL IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS FRONT WILL SWITCH THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR KCNU AROUND 10Z AS ALL OTHER
SITES HAVE ALREADY OR ARE ON THE FRINGES OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN
AREA OF MID CLOUDS DEVELOPED IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PUSHED
THEIR WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH HAS IMPACTED KICT AND
KHUT WITH A CLOUD DECK A LITTLE SOONER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS STILL PERSIST THOUGH WITH THIS DECK WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH THE GREATER MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR KCNU WITH THE
RECENT PRECIP...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL OVERHEAD CLOUD COVER. KEPT
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE FOG. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE FENCE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TO MVFR BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EVENTS OF
LAST NIGHT.

PRECIP DEVELOPMENT FOR KRSL AND KSLN APPEARS TO BE DELAYED FROM
PREVIOUS ESTIMATIONS. THIS COULD CORRESPOND TO THE SLOW MOVING
FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE BEHIND IT. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE A
START TIME OF -SN TO BE AROUND MID MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR KRSL...KSLN AND KHUT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONDITIONS COULD
FALL TO IFR WHICH IS HINTED BY THE MODELS AND A FEW SITES
UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...LACKING CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME. KEPT THE MIXED PRECIP POSSIBILITY AT KICT ~16Z BECAUSE OF
THE THERMAL PROFILE. ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA AND
BREAKING CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING.

JUANITA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  17  37  21 /  60  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      33  15  37  19 /  30  10   0   0
NEWTON          33  17  35  21 /  30  10   0   0
ELDORADO        34  17  37  21 /  40  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  18  40  21 /  60  10  10   0
RUSSELL         33   7  32  14 /  50   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      33   9  33  15 /  40   0   0   0
SALINA          34  12  39  19 /  40   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       32  13  37  19 /  30  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     41  22  40  19 /  30  20   0  10
CHANUTE         39  18  39  21 /  20  10   0  10
IOLA            38  18  39  22 /  20  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    40  17  39  17 /  30  20   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
556 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-231200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
556 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS MORNING AND OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAY SEE RAIN TURN
INTO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW. NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

HOWERTON