High Wind in California, December 22 to 23, 2011

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
210 PM PST THU DEC 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COOL AND WINDY ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED
AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
HAS BROUGHT AMPLE COLD AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT...A MODERATELY STRONG
SANTA ANA CONTINUES TO IMPACT MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES. PEAK GUSTS OVER 70 MPH WERE REALIZED IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN THE COASTS AND VALLEYS. AS THE
LOW SAGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WHILE
THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS STRONG. EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY AS A RESULT...BUT SHOULD BE ABOUT 5
TO 10 MPH WEAKER THAN TODAY. TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE CURRENT SUITE
OF WIND ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS A BIT...AND ALSO DOWNGRADED THE
WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES IN THE VALLEYS CONSIDERING THEY STRUGGLED TO
HIT WARNING CRITERIA EVEN TODAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THE
WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO EVER SO SLIGHTLY SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...WHICH MAY DECREASE THE WINDS EVEN MORE OVER VENTURA
COUNTY TONIGHT. CONSIDERED ENDING THE VENTURA COAST ADVISORY TONIGHT
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT WILL PUNT THAT ON FOR THE FUTURE SHIFTS TO
CONSIDER.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD LOW AND THE VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE...NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS. MOST OF SBA AND
SLO COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT.
THE CURRENT FREEZE WATCHES FOR THE CENTRAL COAST ANS SANTA YNEZ
VALLEY WILL BE CONVERTED TO WARNINGS SHORTLY...AND NEW WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL BE
BITTERLY COLD...LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
PASO ROBLES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. THESE AREAS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
FREEZE WARNINGS POSTED BASED ON LOCAL POLICY...SINCE THEY HAVE
ALREADY EXPERIENCED MULTIPLE FREEZING CONDITIONS THIS SEASON.

ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY EVEN
SEE A LITTLE BOOST SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE COLD LOW THAT
STARTED ALL THIS BUSINESS WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND BE
REPLACED BY A HEALTHY 585DM RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE BAY AREA. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE 5 TO 10 DEGREE WARM UP OVER THE
CHRISTMAS WEEKEND...WITH MANY COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY AREAS FIRMLY
IN THE 70S. A FEW 80S CANT BE COUNTED OUT EITHER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
EXPECTING THE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW TO FINALLY WEAKEN SOMETIME
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT PROJECTIONS POINT AT MONDAY OR TUESDAY
BEING THE WINNER DAYS WHEN WE GO SLIGHTLY ONSHORE GRADIENT-WISE.
MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE FROM THE WEEKEND WILL FLATTEN OUT SOME AND
MORPH INTO A MUCH BROADER RIDGE BY MIDWEEK. WHILE THIS WILL BRING
SOME COOLING...IT WILL REMAIN PLEASANT AND RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT SKIRTS OUR AREA. WHILE
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR SLO AND NRN
SBA COUNTIES...IT IS SMALL ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE...
STRONG SANTA ANA EVENT FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY COME UP SHARPLY THIS MORNING ACROSS LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 65 TO 75
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 65
MPH RANGE ACROSS COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. HUMIDITIES HAVE FALLEN
QUICKLY THIS MORNING...ALREADY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS
MANY AREAS AS OF 9 AM. EXPECTING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
LOWER INTO SINGLE DIGITS TODAY WITH VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES IN
THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND WIND EXPOSED LOCATIONS. WHILE OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A TAD WEAKER ON FRIDAY...SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE VERY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH PLENTY OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER CONDITIONS...CRITICAL RED FLAG THRESHOLDS WILL
BE MET ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BASED ON COORDINATION WITH LOCAL
FIRE AGENCIES...RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE NOT ISSUED SINCE FUEL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND
MODERATE AFTER 23/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE NORTH WINDS BECOME
MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 23/00Z. STRONG OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH 23/00Z THEN MODERATE OFFSHORE THEREAFTER.

KLAX...CHANCE LLWS ABOVE 015 AT 04030KT THROUGH 22/23Z. SURFACE
WINDS LIGHT 23/03-23/20Z. CHANCE OF ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS AFTER
23/20Z.

KBUR...CHANCE SURFACE WINDS 08020G30KT THROUGH 23/02Z. THEN CHANCE
SURFACE WINDS NORTHEAST AFTER 23/02Z BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER 23/14Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FREEZE WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FREEZE WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 PM PST THU DEC 22 2011

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-231400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
250 PM PST THU DEC 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS. COLD AND DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE
WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF SANTA BARBARA AND
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT...AS WELL AS THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY. WIDE PROTECTED VALLEY AREAS OF VENTURA COUNTY MAY ALSO
EXPERIENCE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH PATCHY FROST.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FREEZE WARNING.............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COLD AND DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. WIDE PROTECTED VALLEY
AREAS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH PATCHY FROST.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FREEZE WARNING.............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FREEZE WATCH...............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KITTELL