NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 3, 3:18 AM CST, 3 hours 42 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 3, 3:18 AM CST, 3 hours 42 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
418 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIME CONTINENT AND LIKELY WILL APPROACH 160E
BY LATE THIS WEEK. GLOBAL RELATIVE ANGULAR MOMENTUM HAS INCREASED TO
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES, AND TENDENCIES STILL ARE SLIGHTLY
POSITIVE. MOUNTAIN TORQUE HAS DECREASED STRONGLY IN RECENT DAYS, AND
THE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW APPEARS TO BE ROTATING BACK TOWARD PHASE 8/1 IN
THE BERRY/WEICKMANN PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM. THIS FAVORS TROUGHING IN
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS TODAY ARE FIRST THE WIND SPEEDS, THEN THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, FOLLOWED BY THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
THE 06Z PROFILERS WERE SHOWING A 55KT LOW LEVEL JET AT THE 700MB
LEVEL, WITH EVEN HIGHER WINDS IN THE 80KT RANGE AT HBRK1
(HILLSBORO, KS) JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. EXPECT 850 TO 700MB WINDS
TO MIX DOWN BY 10AM CDT OR SO, AND HOWL ACROSS ALL BUT OUR 2 MOST
NORTHERN ZONES. THERE IS VERY WARM AIR SHOWING AS WELL, WITH +20C
TO +27C 850MB ISOTHERMS CANVASSING OUR CWA AT 03/00Z. THIS,
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG AND LONG FETCHED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD SEND OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN
MY NORTH, AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. WITH
THIS SAID, WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING, BUT BUMPED THE
STARTING TIME BACK TO 16Z, AND PLAN TO CONTINUE BOTH WIND
ADVISORIES. THE FIRST WIND ADVISORY GOES FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 5
AM MONDAY MORNING, TO COVER BOTH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
MIXING DOWN TODAY, AND THEN SWITCHING FROM THE NORTH AT 25G45KTS
BEHIND THE FROPA LATE THIS EVENING. IN MY 2 NORTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES, A WIND ADVISORY WILL RUN FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
(EARLIEST PREDICTION FOR A FROPA) TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY, WHEN THE
AFFECTS OF THE POST FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SHOULD START TO DECREASE.
THE START TIME MAY BE A BIT EARLY BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RUC
FRONTAL TIMING, BUT SOUTH WINDS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS
COULD SEND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TOWARD ADVISORY LEVELS BY 1 PM THERE.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING IN THE 700MB LEVEL RANGE. NOT TOO SURE EVERY LOCATION
WILL SEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP, SO 30 POPS SEEM ABOUT RIGHT. THE
COLD AIR SHOULD SPILL IN RATHER FAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD
COOL DOWN THE VERTICAL COLUMN RAPIDLY. THE NAM, GFS, CANADIAN AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF, ALL GENERATE SOME SNOW IN OUR
NORTHWEST AND WEST COUNTIES, BASICALLY BETWEEN 07Z- 12Z. WILL GO
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THIS TIME, AND PLAN TO END THE POPS VERY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING ARE DIFFICULT, BUT BASICALLY LEFT THEM
THE SAME AS THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY, FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT
WILL BE BOOKING SOUTHWARD AT 35-40KTS, AND SHOULD LEAVE US IN
SUBSIDENCE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL BE BREEZY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE STAYED NEAR THE CONSENSUS LEVELS FOR MAX TEMPS,
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTHEAST. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP WARM THE SURFACE AND OVERCOME THE COOL
MORNING CONDITIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS CLEAR AND COLD, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING BOTH AT LOW AND UPPER LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BUT THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP FAST, AND RESULT IN MINIMUMS FROM NEAR
27F IN SCOTT AND HAMILTON COUNTIES, TO 34-35F IN THE COMANCHE AND
BARBER COUNTY AREAS.
DAYS 3-7...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DIGGING A
DEEP TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEK AND
PROPAGATING A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
NEXT SUNDAY, AND THIS EVOLUTION SEEMS VERY REASONABLE. CONFIDENCE
IN THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS
LOW, BUT THE ECMWF MAY BE A LITTLE TOO DEEP AND SLOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
IN THE SHORTER TERM, THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AND
INCREASING FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN LEE
TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TUESDAY SHOULD BE QUITE WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS, WHERE H8
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 23C-24C BY 00Z. THE JET STREAK EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE DATELINE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT STILL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE SPINNING BETWEEN 20N
AND 30N AROUND 135W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING.
CYCLOGENESIS IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING OVER THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN, BUT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND UVV
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OUT
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND SHOULD REACH NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, AND THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF
THE CYCLONE SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN APPEARS MORE
REASONABLE THAN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD BE QUITE WARM
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES IN THE GRIDS BUT
PROBABLY ARE TOO LOW YET. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RADIATE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE DIGGING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND INCREASING
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN WESTERN KANSAS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEKEND,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS LIFT THE
CYCLONE OUT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
EAST AND NORTH OF THE DODGE CITY AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN IOWA BY THIS EVENING, AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WITH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN EXCESS OF 60KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR, ESPECIALLY AT DDC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD
SUNRISE, BUT HEATING THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN MOMENTUM TRANSFER
FROM STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 25KTS TO 30KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 200 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND PASS HYS BY
16Z. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO EASTERN COLORADO MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL PLUNGE
SOUTHWARD BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AT 25 TO 30KT
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40KT FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN KANSAS AFTER 00Z. THE AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT REACH DDC AND GCK AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS NEAR 060 CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS A DRY LINE MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 58 TO
90 DEGREE RANGE, RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ALL OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE PROHIBITED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 88 34 55 30 / 10 30 10 0
GCK 85 33 56 28 / 10 30 0 0
EHA 82 33 56 32 / 10 20 10 0
LBL 85 34 55 31 / 10 30 10 0
HYS 79 35 53 30 / 10 30 0 0
P28 91 41 56 35 / 0 20 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ043>046-061>066-074>081-
084>090.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 5 AM
CDT /4 AM MDT/ MONDAY FOR KSZ061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
FN12/01/01