Drought in Hawaii, October 1 to 31, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI SEP 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND A RATHER TYPICAL PATTERN OF
MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TRADES WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
THEN DECLINE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KAUAI...OAHU...
MOLOKAI TONIGHT...WHILE A SMALL BATCH OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVING
ALONG THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PRODUCE SLIGHTLY WETTER CONDITIONS
FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE STILL RATHER
STABLE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF KAUAI HAS WEAKENED
AND ELEVATED THE INVERSION OVER THE ISLANDS. AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVED OVER THE BIG ISLAND TODAY...AFTERNOON
HEATING LED TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ALMOST TO THE PEAKS OF
MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA. THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND SLOPES THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE MODEST.

FINE TRADE WIND WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE BATCH OF
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY
MORNING. A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED
FRONT JUST NORTH OF KAUAI MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS FOR
WINDWARD KAUAI...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE STATE. OVERALL...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
WINDWARD SLOPES...AS WELL AS LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND EACH
AFTERNOON.

GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
RIDGING WELL NORTH OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK AS A FRONT
PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...KEEPING TRADES MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED.

AN INCREASE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN WINDS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE HIGH IS
DISPLACED TO THE EAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PREVAILING PATTERN OF
MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BY MONDAY LIKELY REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE USUAL WINDY AREAS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND
THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL SOUTH SWELLS MAINLY OF BACKGROUND LEVELS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. FORERUNNERS FROM A LARGER LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN FILLING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTH SHORE SURF MAY HIT
THE 8 FOOT ADVISORY LEVEL BY MONDAY AND IT WILL BUILD TO WELL ABOVE
THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY
LOWER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A SHORT PERIOD NORTH SWELL LINGERING THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD NORTH SWELL EXPECTED TO FILL IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO FILL
IN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

WROE