Damaging Wind in Georgia, July 13, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
COOLER AIR DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND.  A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK AND RETURN
OUR REGION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE SFC...A SHALLOW TROF WILL EXIST PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLOW MOVING WEST TO
EAST COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIAN
REGION...REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. ALOFT...H7 TO H5 RIDGE
WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AND TEMPS IN THE 90S SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY SHALLOW
LAYER OF CIN WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE VALUES. AT A S/W SWINGS
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE I-40 CORRDIOR WITH WEAK BAND OF FORCING. BASED ON THE
INSTABILITY AND FORCING...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST SVR TSRA
POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR ACROSS I-40 CORRIDOR...HIGHLIGHTED WITH SVR
WATCH 638 UNTIL 10 PM.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE
GA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT KGSO AND KFFC
OBSERVED HIGH FZL BETWEEN 15.2 TO 15.5 KFT WITH THE WBZ ABOVE 14
KFT. CORE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN VERY ELEVATED...WITH THE 55 DBZ CORE
NEAR 30 KFT. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND MODERATE TO HIGH
CAPE IT APPEARS THAT A COUPLE OF SEVERE WET MICROBURSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...PW BETWEEN 1.9 TO 2 INCHES AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS COULD RESULT IN ISO AREAS OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN THE TWO
SURFACE FEATURES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EAST OF THE SFC TROF.
LATEST OBS ALONG AND EAST OF I-85 INDICATE HI VALUES OF 103 TO 105.
THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 9 PM.

OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH...REACHING THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SC. MODELS ARE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FAVORING THE
GFS...I WILL FAVOR THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND NC MTNS FOR
POPS. THE LATEST DY2 SPC OUTLOOK INDICATES A GENERAL RISK. I WILL
FORECAST CHC POPS SW WITH SCHC NE. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD VERIFY SEVERAL
CATES BELOW VALUES OBSERVED EARLIER THIS WEEK...WITH U80S FAVORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...AS SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO
THE REGION...SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTS DEEP LAYER RH BAND
LINGERING ATOP THE SW CWFA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DEGREE OF E TO SE
925-850MB FLOW IS UNCERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
ACRS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWFA. DO NOT PREFER THE 12 UTC NAM
MASS FIELDS ON FRIDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT. WILL FAVOR THE GFS/SREF SOLUTION IN DEVELOPING A WEAK
SELY 85H FLOW ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES CREEPING TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. GIVEN THIS...SENSIBLE WX WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...A MID CHANCE POP. GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW AND A
WEAK LLVL WAA/UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAIN. THE LATEST MOS BLEND CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE GOING COOLISH MAX...PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 DEG F BELOW
CLIMO. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE OP GFS/SREF MASS FIELDS FOR
SATURDAY AS WELL IN WHERE THEY LINGER SOME DEGREE OF SELY FLOW ABOVE
WEAK SFC RIDGE. WOULD EXPECT ONLY NOMINAL CHANGES TO THE ABV NORMAL
PWAT VALUES ATOP THE REGION...WHICH IN THEORY WOULD SUPPORT SIMILAR
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO FRIDAY. AGAIN...WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THE LINGERING EASTERLY FLOW...MAX TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 DEG F BELOW CLIMO ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE...STILL EXPECT A WEAK MOIST FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC
FEEDING IN ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SUNDAY.
THIS WEAK FLOW BREAKS DOWN BY LATE SUNDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM FORMING EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MOVES THIS OUT TO SEA AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

GOING INTO DAY 6 AND 7...THERE WAS BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF...AS THE GFS DUG AN UPPER TROUGH DOWN THE EAST COAST AS
THE ECMWF WAS BUILDING THE MISSISSIPPI RIDGE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S NEXT WEEK FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AND AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR THE MOUNTAINS BY
MID WEEK.  A SHORTWAVE COMING AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MAY GIVE
MAINLY NC PIEDMONT SECTIONS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME THE RIDGE MAY SUPPRESS ALL ENERGY
TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...DEEP CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS THE ATMOS
DESTABILIZES AND COOL POOLS ADVANCE COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. I WILL INCLUDE
A CB MENTION FOR EVERY TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT...TAF SITES EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT
MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE IF THE TERMINAL RECEIVES MEASURABLE RAIN. KAVL
WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR FOG OR LESS LATE TONIGHT...GIVEN A WARM CROSS
OVER TEMP. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING WITH
SCT TO BKN DEBRIS CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AND EARLY MORNING FOG...
ESPECIALLY AT KAVL...CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NE BEGINNING SUN WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO SLIGHT
CHC FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ026-028-029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ071-072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ009>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
224 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-068>070-501>510-
SCZ001>008-141830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-
224 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
FROM FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-141830-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
224 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ071-072-082-SCZ009>014-019-141830-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-ANDERSON-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
224 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
FROM FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
216 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

NCZ053-065-131900-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
216 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 211 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CANDLER...OR 9 MILES WEST OF DOWNTOWN
ASHEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO I-26 AT
  I-40...SKYLAND...MILLS RIVER...LEICESTER...FLETCHER...CANDLER...
  BILTMORE FOREST...BENT CREEK AND AVERY CREEK.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3551 8238 3531 8257 3549 8280 3553 8278
      3554 8276 3556 8278 3557 8277 3560 8279
      3567 8272

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
228 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

NCZ035-036-056-131915-
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-IREDELL-
228 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER...NORTHERN CATAWBA AND
WESTERN IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 224 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TAYLORSVILLE...
  STONY POINT...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3603 8117 3604 8115 3591 8091 3572 8110
      3592 8134 3594 8134 3603 8124 3604 8121
      3604 8118

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

NCZ505-506-508-131930-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
245 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHERN
MCDOWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 240 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OLD FORT...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARION...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THERMAL
  CITY...SUGAR HILL...OLD FORT...GLENWOOD AND FERO.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3562 8186 3541 8200 3548 8212 3553 8209
      3552 8215 3556 8222 3556 8224 3559 8228
      3573 8219

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
306 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

NCZ501>504-131945-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
306 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BURKE AND SOUTHWESTERN
CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 301 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF TABLE ROCK...OR 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MORGANTON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TABLE
  ROCK...LENOIR...GAMEWELL...DREXEL...COLLETTSVILLE AND CAJAH'S
  MOUNTAIN.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3595 8151 3571 8158 3581 8192 3598 8187
      3597 8182 3596 8181 3598 8179

07