Deep tropical moisture setup an environment for strong thunderstorms to develop associated with a prefrontal trough, producing heavy rain and localized flooding.
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The episode as NWS TBW wrote it up.
Deep tropical moisture setup an environment for strong thunderstorms to develop associated with a prefrontal trough, producing heavy rain and localized flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 26, 12:46 PM EST, 29 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 146 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2011 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)... THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDES A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 TO LOWER 70S. .PREVIOUS LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)... A CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FINALLY COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GETS ABSORBED BY ANOTHER TROUGH AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AS IT DOES...SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES DOWN TOWARDS THE WESTERN GULF COAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL END UP REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH MID WEEK FINALLY GETS A PUSH SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SO EVEN WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HANGING OVERHEAD...WE WON'T SEE MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE ON POPS. TEMPS LOOK TO COOL OFF FOR THE WEEKEND...DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL AND EVEN A DEGREE OR SO BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR PUSHES IN OVER THE AREA AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE HIGH. && .AVIATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCASIONALLY AFFECT THE TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING CAUSING SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM TIME TO TIME INTO EARLY TONIGHT IN AND AROUND THE STRATIFORM RAIN AREAS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH STARTING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AND DECREASES OVERALL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 90 76 90 / 20 30 20 20 FMY 74 91 76 90 / 30 30 20 20 GIF 73 91 73 91 / 20 30 10 20 SRQ 74 89 75 89 / 30 30 20 20 BKV 69 90 68 90 / 20 20 10 20 SPG 78 88 77 88 / 20 30 20 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE AVIATION...69/CLOSE PREVIOUS LONG TERM...23/MCNATT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 533 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2011 FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-262145- LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK- MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 533 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE NATURE COAST...WITH A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA AND COMBINING WITH AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW. FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS CAUSING MINOR FLOODING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... LOW CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG ONSHORE FLOW. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. REYNES
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
The broadcast media relayed a report from the general public of heavy rain causing minor flooding of the intersection of Shafton Road and Belspring Avenue in Springhill.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, September 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 348827.