Colorado, 2011Winter Storm and Winter Weather in Colorado, March 17 to 18, 2011
March 17 to 18, 2011 · NWS BOU · 4 events in 4 counties and zones
A winter storm brought heavy snow to portions of the North-Central Mountains. Storm totals included: 20 inches at Joe Wright, 14 inches at Cameron Pass and Lake Irene, 12 inches at Willow Creek SNOTEL, 11 inches at Long Draw River SNOTEL, and 10 inches at Arapahoe Ridge, 10 miles northwest of Kremmling, Phantom Valley and Rabbit Ears Pass.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 4
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A winter storm brought heavy snow to portions of the North-Central Mountains. Storm totals included: 20 inches at Joe Wright, 14 inches at Cameron Pass and Lake Irene, 12 inches at Willow Creek SNOTEL, 11 inches at Long Draw River SNOTEL, and 10 inches at Arapahoe Ridge, 10 miles northwest of Kremmling, Phantom Valley and Rabbit Ears Pass. Storm totals elsewhere ranged from 4 to 9 inches.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Denver/Boulder, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 17, 3:25 AM MST, 1 hour 35 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 17, 3:25 AM MST, 1 hour 35 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
425 AM MDT THU MAR 17 2011
.SHORT TERM...FRONT COMING IN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED WITH STRONG WEST
WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AHEAD OF IT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH ON THE
PLAINS NOW NORTH OF DENVER...BUT WILL BE FIGHTING THE WESTERLIES
ALONG THE HILLS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. JUST NEAR THE RED FLAG
CRITERIA AS THE WIND KICKED IN EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE COOLING
HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH ALL THE WIND I WILL
GO AHEAD AND LEAVE THE CHANGES I MADE EARLIER...WE WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO DROP SOME OF THE WARNINGS EARLIER THAN SCHEDULED.
DROPPED HIGHS TODAY IN LIGHT OF THE COOLING ALREADY COMING IN. STILL
SOME SUN AND THE STRONGER COOLING SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...SO I WAS NOT TOO AGRESSIVE IN DROPPING THE
TEMPERATURES...WE MAY TURN OUT TO BE STILL TOO WARM IN THE NORTH...OR
THOSE AREAS MAY HAVE MORNING HIGHS.
AS FOR THE SNOW...BAND HAS FORMED ALREADY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS AND MODELS JUST HANG THAT BAND THERE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
NOT TOO MUCH DISAGREEMENT IN WHAT I HAVE SEEN ON POSITION...
GENERALLY BOULDER OR LARIMER COUNTIES ON THE SOUTH EDGE RUNNING
NORTHEAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ONCE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PROGRESS ONTO THE
PLAINS. MAIN DIFFERENCE IN MODELS IS QPF...NAM HAS GONE CRAZY WITH
THESE BANDS IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENTS RECENTLY...LAST COUPLE OF RUNS
HAVE SUGGESTED A MAX OF 12-20 INCHES IN THE SNOW BAND. GFS HAS HAD
6-12 INCHES WITH THE MAX NORTH OF THE STATE LINE. WILL GO WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH IS A BIT BELOW GFS...IF THE MAX WINDS UP
FURTHER SOUTH WE MAY NEED TO UP THIS A BIT. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
THE BANDING AND DEEP MOIST LAYER WILL LEAVE THE WARNINGS GOING...
COULD SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT NOT CERTAIN OF THE DETAILS AT
THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE A SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA FROM MID DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THE GFS BEING A BIT
QUICKER WITH IT COMPARED TO THE NAM. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DECREASES IN SPEED. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BENIGN SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FOR
THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS ON FRIDAY. THE NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A BIT MORE
DOWNSLOPING TO THE NORMAL PATTERNS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND SPEEDS ARE PRETTY WEAK SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR
MOISTURE...NOW THE MODELS SHOW PLENTY OVER THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING
...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THIS IS A FULL PERIOD SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY'S 00Z MODEL
RUNS INDICATED. THE NAM LINGERS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS DRIES EVERYTHING OUT. SATURDAY IS DRY ON
BOTH MODELS...BUT THE NAM HAS A TAD IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
SATURDAY NIGHT IS VERY DRY. THE GFS QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...EVEN LESS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS CONSIDERABLY MORE FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK MOSTLY DRY.
THE QPF FIELDS STILL SHOW THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN CONNECTED TO THE
JET MAXIMUM IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT ON FRIDAY THEY KEEP THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. SO FOR
POPS...WILL LINGER THEM INTO FRIDAY...WITH "CHANCES" IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND 20-30%S OVER THE PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON...THEY WILL
BE MINOR. NO POPS THE REST OF THE PERIODS. FOR TEMPERATURES...
FRIDAY'S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C COOLER THAN TODAY'S EXPECTED HIGHS.
SATURDAY'S READINGS WARM-UP 2-5 C FROM FRIDAY'S. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS KEEP STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A
SLOWER...MORE BROAD AND WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW PROGGED
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY ON THE ECMWF AND TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS.
ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN WITH VERY STRONG
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. NOW THE MOISTURE ON THESE
LATEST RUNS COMES ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
QUITE A DEPARTURE FROM LAST NIGHT'S 00Z MODEL RUNS. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS GETTING WEAKER AND LATER IN TIME WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL
RUNS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A SHIFT TO EAST WINDS
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF DENVER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DENVER AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE...COZ215-216-241-246-247.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR ADJACENT
PLAINS...COZ238-239-240-245.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR SOUTH
PARK...COZ214.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN GRAND
AND WESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...ZONE 31.
WINTER STORM WARNING 6 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MOUNTAINS FROM
ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK NORTHWARD...ZONE 33.
&&
GIMMESTAD/RJK
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 16, 11:45 AM MST, 17 hours 15 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1245 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2011
COZ030>051-171200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1245 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2011
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE FOOTHILLS...FRONT RANGE AND PALMER
DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...
...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NORTH OF I-70 FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HIGH WILDLAND FIRE DANGER IN THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE FRONT RANGE...MUCH OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR...AND ON THE
PALMER DIVIDE EASTWARD ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE FOOTHILLS BY AROUND
MIDDAY. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP NOT TOO LONG
AFTER THAT. THIS EVENING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THE
PLAINS BUT REMAIN QUITE GUSTY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE FRONT
RANGE OVERNIGHT. BECAUSE OF THESE GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND
MILD TEMPERATURES...THE WILDLAND FIRE DANGER MAY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR FOOTHILL AREAS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH ON THURSDAY...MAINLY IN AND
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 12 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE PLAINS AND
FOOTHILLS MAY SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAY OCCUR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT NORTH OF A LINE FROM BOULDER TO GREELEY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER
REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.
BAKER/MEIER
Winter Storm, West Jackson & West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet
- When
- March 17, 5:00 AM MST to March 18, 3:13 AM MST
- Where
- West Jackson & West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet forecast zone
- Reported by
- SNOTEL
- Coordinates
- 40.385, -106.230 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Winter Storm, S & E Jackson / Larimer / N & Ne Grand / Nw Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet
- When
- March 17, 5:00 PM MST to March 18, 3:13 AM MST
- Where
- S & E Jackson / Larimer / N & Ne Grand / Nw Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet forecast zone
- Reported by
- SNOTEL
- Coordinates
- 40.382, -105.820 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Winter Weather, Grand & Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet
- When
- March 17, 5:00 PM MST to March 18, 3:13 AM MST
- Where
- Grand & Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet forecast zone
- Reported by
- Trained Spotter
- Coordinates
- 39.869, -106.117 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Winter Weather, S & Se Grand / W Central & Sw Boulder / Gilpin / Clear Creek / Summit / N & W Park Counties Above 9000 Feet
- When
- March 17, 5:00 PM MST to March 18, 3:13 AM MST
- Where
- S & Se Grand / W Central & Sw Boulder / Gilpin / Clear Creek / Summit / N & W Park Counties Above 9000 Feet forecast zone
- Reported by
- Trained Spotter
- Coordinates
- 39.726, -105.675 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
- Winter Storm
- A storm that brought snow, sleet or freezing rain at warning levels, usually over several hours or days.
- Winter Weather
- Snow, sleet or freezing rain below warning levels that still caused disruption, damage or casualties.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Flooding in Iowa, March 17 to 31, 2011$110,000 · 2 events
- Dense Fog in Minnesota, March 17, 20112 injured · $5,000 · 1 event
- Flooding in South Dakota, March 17 to 31, 201110 events
- High Surf in Hawaii, March 17 to 20, 20118 events
- Flooding in South Dakota, March 17 to 31, 20115 events
- High Wind in Wyoming, March 17, 201169 kt wind · 3 events
- Flooding in Montana, March 17 to 19, 20113 events
- Heavy Snow in California, March 17 to 18, 20113 events
- Marine High Wind in Eastern Pacific Coastal Waters, March 17 to 18, 201164 kt wind · 3 events
- Winter Weather in Utah, March 17 to 18, 20112 events
- Flash Flood and Flood in Montana, March 17 to 21, 20112 events
- Flooding in Montana, March 17 to 21, 20112 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 287538, 287539, 287541, 287547.