Unseasonably warm weather, coupled with low humidities and continuing dry conditions led to the spread of many wildfires over the weekend of the 29th and 30th. The Arkansas Forestry Commission aided in the suppression of 87 wildfires which burned a total of 1730 acres.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Unseasonably warm weather, coupled with low humidities and continuing dry conditions led to the spread of many wildfires over the weekend of the 29th and 30th. The Arkansas Forestry Commission aided in the suppression of 87 wildfires which burned a total of 1730 acres. No homes were lost to the fires, but 34 were threatened.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 29, 11:26 AM CST, 34 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1126 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED INVOF NORTHERN ARKANSAS/ SOUTHERN MISSOURI. FOR THE MOST PART...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY OR VARIABLE. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE PREVAILING BY ABOUT THE 10Z-14Z TIME FRAME AREAWIDE...WITH IFR PREVAILING AT PINE BLUFF AND MONTICELLO BY 14Z. PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE NOTED TOWARD DAWN. AFTER 14Z AT MONTICELLO AND PINE BLUFF...PRECIP WILL DEVELOP. THINK IT WILL BECOME PREVALENT BY JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO ONLY MENTIONED PROB30 AT BOTH SITES UNTIL THEN. TAFS ALREADY OUT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY ANOTHER SPLENDID WINTER DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE UNSETTLED STARTING SUNDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER RETURNING TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY BEFORE DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD OFFERING A MYRIAD OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPES FOR A LESS THAN CONFIDENT FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...KEEPING A WARY EYE ON THE DEVELOPING SITUATION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING IN THE CENTRAL GULF BUT MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THERMAL RIDGING WILL PULL TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH 70S EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO RUN A LITTLE COOL OF LATE AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHERE IT STALLS OUT FOR SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A CLOSED OFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW...CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA THIS MORNING...WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT TO THE EAST BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. WAVE A LITTLE STRONGER VERSUS THIS TIME LAST NIGHT AND WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE SOUTH. POPS WILL BE TAPERED OFF TO THE NORTH WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER BUT ONCE AGAIN WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET NUMBERS. THERMAL PROFILES/BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST LIQUID PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WAVE. THE DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE EXPANSIVE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. MODELS ALL HAVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY. GFS SOLUTION IS NOW FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHILE ECMWF IS FASTER AND CONTINUES TO MOVE THE PARENT LOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE STATE WHILE THE GEM IS ACTUALLY SHOWING TWO SEPARATE LOWS MOVING THROUGH. EVEN WITH THE GFS TRACKING SOUTH...THERMAL PROFILES/BUFKIT DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY RAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO A WINTERY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE PRECIP FINALLY ENDS AS SNOW. CHANGEOVER ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WILL OCCUR AFTER DARK BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BEFORE THE COLDEST OF THE AIR ARRIVES AND ANY FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW TUESDAY WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE ALMOST A CERTAINTY AS THE EVENT NEARS. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST. THE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH TEXAS FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM HOWEVER...SO WILL KEEP THE DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE DIFFERENT THURSDAY AS THE GFS BRINGS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE ECMWF HAS NOTHING. WILL STAY WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AND KEEP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DRY...BUT INCLUDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AND BELOW NORMAL. && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && AVIATION...57
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 500 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301100- ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND- CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING- INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE- MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE- PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE- WOODRUFF-YELL- 500 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE AREA TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE STATE LATE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. WITH THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM EAST OF ARKANSAS MONDAY...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS ARKANSAS. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS IS EXPECTED. SOME DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM COULD STILL CHANGE...SO STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER FORECASTS AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 51
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
A wildfire about 4 miles northwest of Okolona burned 142 acres.
A wildfire 4.6 miles northwest of Hatfield burned 114 acres.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, January 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 269836, 269835.