A strong low pressure center moving across the Great Basin produced locally strong winds. The strongest winds were on the lee side of large terrain features including the Kaibab Plateau and the San Francisco Peaks.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A strong low pressure center moving across the Great Basin produced locally strong winds. The strongest winds were on the lee side of large terrain features including the Kaibab Plateau and the San Francisco Peaks.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 18, 3:30 PM MST, 3 hours 30 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 330 PM MST FRI NOV 18 2011 .SYNOPSIS...WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STORM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. A SECOND STORM DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS GOING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. && .DISCUSSION....A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF AZ THAT IT WILL PRODUCE VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT IT WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL GENERALLY REDUCE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED AREAS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES SUCH AS THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS AND KAIBAB PLATEAU...AS WELL AS OTHER AREAS NORTH/EAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND COCONINO PLATEAU. THESE FAVORED AREAS MAY SEE WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH OVERNIGHT. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH SUNDAY AND CROSS AZ ON MONDAY. AS IT APPROACHES SUNDAY...MOIST ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE COLD AIR REMAINS RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED NEAR THE SURFACE. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT STILL ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. AFTER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BRINGS FAIR WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT BRINGING A TROUGH PASSAGE FOR LATE THANKSGIVING DAY AND THANKSGIVING NIGHT. EXPECT BREEZY TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THANKSGIVING DAY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW LATE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OR EARLY NEXT FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS 020-030 DEVELOPING OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS AFT 16Z. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH ALONG THE NORTHEAST SLOPES OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN FEATURES. THESE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY MORNING...BECOMING 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...............ONTON AVIATION.............BOHLIN FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 650 AM MST FRI NOV 18 2011 AZZ004>018-037>040-190700- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS- MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY- 650 AM MST FRI NOV 18 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOCALIZED STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TONIGHT ON THE NORTHEASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN FEATURES...INCLUDING THE DONEY PARK REGION EAST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 50 MPH TONIGHT OVER THESE SMALL AREAS. STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The RAWS at House Rock reported wind gusts above 58 MPH for about 8 hours. The highest wind gust was 77 MPH.
The RAWS at House Rock reported wind gusts above 58 MPH for about 8 hours. The highest wind gust was 77 MPH.
The ADOT mesonet at Two Guns reported wind gusts over 55 MPH from around 1230 AM until around 200 AM. The peak wind gust was 60 MPH.
Wind gusts to 60 MPH were measured in Doney Park down wind from the San Francisco Peaks.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, November 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 352736, 352737, 352738, 352740.