The Willow Fire was human caused and burned about 213 acres with 292 people assigned to the fire.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
The Willow Fire was human caused and burned about 213 acres with 292 people assigned to the fire.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 19, 9:20 AM MST, 4 hours 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 920 AM MST SUN JUN 19 2011 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE UTAH BORDER AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WITH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. && DISCUSSION...A FEW UPDATES THIS MORNING. SHORT WAVE LIFTING ACROSS UTAH FORECAST TO DIP JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SHIFT FRONTAL BAND INTO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAINLY ADJUSTED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY...SO ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /FROM 230 AM MST/ ...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG (FOR MID-JUNE) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES TODAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...FROM ABOUT FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS REACHING AROUND 50 MPH. IN GENERAL...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 35 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE UTAH BORDER DURING THE DAY AS THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. STARTING MONDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DURATION OF THE COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OBSERVED SO FAR THIS SEASON BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WARM AIR BUILDS ALOFT. IT WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER THIS WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE. BEYOND FRIDAY...SOME VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS DRY AND WARM WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE UTAH BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 20-30 KTS GUSTING 30-50 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z MON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHLAND. TODAYS RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO NOW COVER ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...AND MANY AREAS SUSTAINED AT 20-30 MPH. 20 FOOT WINDS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM SELIGMAN TO WINDOW ROCK. EXPECT MUCH SLOWER WIND SPEEDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FOR FIRE ZONES AZZ104>118-137>140. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST TODAY FOR STRONG WINDS IN ZONES AZZ011>018-039>040. && PUBLIC.....................OUTLER / MCCOLLUM AVIATION/FIRE WX...........KLIMOWSKI / 41 FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 313 AM MST SUN JUN 19 2011 AZZ004>018-037>040-200230- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 313 AM MST SUN JUN 19 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...SEE PRODUCT PHXRFWFGZ FOR DETAILS. IN ADDITION...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... FOR MONDAY AND THE COMING WEEK...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Willow Fire was human caused on June 19th approximately 13 miles northwest of Forest Lakes, AZ. The fire was turned back to the local district at 600 PM on June 23rd. Full containment was achieved by the end of June. Crews still patrolled the fire into mid July.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, June 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 318293.